2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[soundchaser]

Yeah, I don't see this as a bad day for Florida Democrats at all, given what's still out. They're going to win the day and add to their lead even with the mail-in ballot delay.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, I don't see this as a bad day for Florida Democrats at all, given what's still out. They're going to win the day and add to their lead even with the mail-in ballot delay.

Given their mail in vote lead doesnt the GOP need to lead with early in voting to win the state

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah, I don't see this as a bad day for Florida Democrats at all, given what's still out. They're going to win the day and add to their lead even with the mail-in ballot delay.

Given their mail in vote lead doesnt the GOP need to lead with early in voting to win the state

Pretty much or else they’ll have to seriously gamble on great turnout on Election Day during a pandemic

[Non Swing Voter]

So does this mean we won't get a D + 600K in Florida by Election Day after all??

[wbrocks67]

The GOP usually wins the in person early vote, don't they? So how is this bad news for Dems? Not to mention, if GOP is only breaking even on in-person whens Dems have already racked up a 500K lead in Mail ballots...

[wbrocks67]

Fresh Florida EV update:
Democrats: 131,524 (41.87%)
Republicans: 134,389 (42.78%)
NPAs: 44,608 (14.20%)
Others: 3,591 (1.14%)

giving up on ever seeing Miami Dade report at this point

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some context for how Dems mail ballot lead is a big context changer
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318314203753611265

[Non Swing Voter]

The GOP usually wins the in person early vote, don't they? So how is this bad news for Dems? Not to mention, if GOP is only breaking even on in-person whens Dems have already racked up a 500K lead in Mail ballots...

I think the Dems usually win in person early voting.  GOP usually wins absentee ballots.

[soundchaser]

So does this mean we won't get a D + 600K in Florida by Election Day after all??

If Republicans only manage to pull even or lose in-person early voting like they did today and Democrats continue to crush it in mail-in voting, it seems almost certain they'll get 600k.

[Gass3268]

The GOP usually wins the in person early vote, don't they? So how is this bad news for Dems? Not to mention, if GOP is only breaking even on in-person whens Dems have already racked up a 500K lead in Mail ballots...

I think the Dems usually win in person early voting.  GOP usually wins absentee ballots.

We are seeing the reverse in Nevada too.

[forsythvoter]

What was the combined Mail + Early Vote margin for the Ds in 2016?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318365154854264833

[Non Swing Voter]

So does this mean we won't get a D + 600K in Florida by Election Day after all??

If Republicans only manage to pull even or lose in-person early voting like they did today and Democrats continue to crush it in mail-in voting, it seems almost certain they'll get 600k.

You assuming that Dems will lead the Miami early vote today?

[Hindsight was 2020]

FL VBM update
Vote-By-Mail (2,631,580)

Dem: 1,277,935
Rep: 801,848
NPA/Others: 551,797

[soundchaser]

So does this mean we won't get a D + 600K in Florida by Election Day after all??

If Republicans only manage to pull even or lose in-person early voting like they did today and Democrats continue to crush it in mail-in voting, it seems almost certain they'll get 600k.

You assuming that Dems will lead the Miami early vote today?

Yes, as do a lot of folks. (See the latest tweet posted above.)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.wilco.org/Portals/0/Departments/Elections/1120/1120%20EV%20Summary/1019_1120%20Early%20Voting%20Summary.pdf

Williamson County, TX is up to 69.3% of 2016 turnout now. Over 37% turnout of registered voters.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318298567174402056?s=20

58,600 + 629,608 (the total up through yesterday) divided by 1,312,112 (the total number of Harris County votes in 2016) = 0.5245.

They did it y'all. Harris County already has more votes accepted than half of all which were cast in 2016....15 days before election day.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318358950136434689?s=20

Update: post Sunday early voting total percentage of all 2016 votes: 54.86%!!!!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1318328000941871104

Yup, Dems need to pack the court. 5 out of 9 justices are anti-democracy

We are lucky to have a center-right CJ, Bush could have appointed another Clarence Thomas. One defection from the CJ was enough to get a 5-4 liberal majority. John Roberts is a Robert Mueller style patriot, who puts the constitution first, not being a Federalist Society hack.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Another 10,666 in Hidalgo County! 57% of 2016

[Rep Jessica]

Carlos Suarez
@CarlosNBC6
 · 2h
#BREAKING @NBC6 Over 40,000 votes were cast in Miami Dade County on the first day of #EarlyVoting surpassing 2016 numbers. The final numbers will post online after all sites close.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Eads/status/1318364228982628352

Denton County, TX up to 62.2% of 2016 turnout.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Eads/status/1318364228982628352

Denton County, TX up to 62.2% of 2016 turnout.

Could we see 100% of 2016 in Denton before the early voting period is over?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nice video breaking down Florida EV
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0Po4u6PpU

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Eads/status/1318364228982628352

Denton County, TX up to 62.2% of 2016 turnout.

Could we see 100% of 2016 in Denton before the early voting period is over?

I'd say if it's at 62.2% now then it's almost inevitable.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Another 41k of early vote in Bexar County. Over 50% of 2016 vote there too.