Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[OSR stands with Israel]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

As I understand it, Alben just wants to get rid of the one term limit. I definitely agree with that. As for the off year election, they can keep this for election nerds.

Imo gubernatorial and local elections should mostly take place in offyear  elections as it would reduce polarization as things are less nationalized than presidential and midterm years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

My mom is a teacher and she would definitely disagree with you guys. She thinks parents should be more involved in their kids education

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

My mom is a teacher and she would definitely disagree with you guys. She thinks parents should be more involved in their kids education

This is where there is nuance to what Terry said, and this whole argument. There is a difference between parents being involved in their kids education, and what they do at school, and then the other side, which is parents wanting books banned and literally telling teachers what to teach and what they shouldn't be teaching (and the whole CRT debate).

What I'm saying is most people would agree with the first point. The debate is about the ~25% of parents who are the crazy ones who are going to school board meetings and telling teachers they shouldn't be teaching X, Y, and Z, and that they are 'indoctrinating' children.

Then the state should ban teaching things like the 1619 project

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even if Youngkin wins , it doesn’t mean that Virginia is suddenly a swing state again lol . People of different parties  get elected governor frequently in states more safe than Virginia lol.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So democrats yelling stolen election: that’s fine

Republicans yelling it : they are evil


The double standards are crazy and maybe both sides should be condemned when they yell stolen election

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

Well, T-Mac has done a very good job in his first term and putting him back in office would just sort of confirm that.

Was he considered a great or popular governor when he was in office cause I remember him being considered more or less an unremarkable one .

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

Right, but the best good Democratic candidates could do against horrible Republican candidates in KY and LA were razor-thin victories, and Buehler was the best Republicans could do and still didn't come that close. Overall, a far cry from 2006, when many states elected governors from the other party.

Oh yah by 2018 it had become much worse than it had before and we were already down this road but now it seems like we are fully in this super partisan hellhole in ways we even weren’t in 2018

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlaHSands/status/1452991576972611599?ref_src=twsrc%...

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarlaHSands/status/1452991576972611599?ref_src=twsrc%...

Congrats, you shared a tweet from a GOP US Senate candidate for Pennsylvania where she posts an image of an an astroturfed sign. Very convincing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

There’s a world of difference between parents being involved and letting them call all the shots and believing that they know better than teachers.

Exactly.  Parents being personally involved in their children's education is great.  Parents giving input to school boards and professional educators is great.  Parents overruling those professionals and defining the curriculum is a terrible idea.

Maybe if it comes to Math and Hard Science cause those things are 100% factual but not when it comes to social studies.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

There’s a world of difference between parents being involved and letting them call all the shots and believing that they know better than teachers.

Exactly.  Parents being personally involved in their children's education is great.  Parents giving input to school boards and professional educators is great.  Parents overruling those professionals and defining the curriculum is a terrible idea.

Maybe if it comes to Math and Hard Science cause those things are 100% factual but not when it comes to social studies.

Why? Social studies teachers have to have at least some level of expertise in their field to be endorsed in the subject, as is the case with any subject.

cause Social Studies is the subject that can be potentially used for propaganda. Things like the 1619 project and making our founding to be evil should not be taught in public schools

[OSR stands with Israel]

parents can vote for school boards and other officials just like everyone else, that's how democracies work.

parents cannot storm school board meetings and act like terrorists.  that's how the modern GOP wants society to function (see Charlottesville and Jan. 6th insurrection for more) but is not how it does.  

So were Democrats protesting at town halls in 2017 acting like terrorists too. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

parents can vote for school boards and other officials just like everyone else, that's how democracies work.

parents cannot storm school board meetings and act like terrorists.  that's how the modern GOP wants society to function (see Charlottesville and Jan. 6th insurrection for more) but is not how it does.  

So were Democrats protesting at town halls in 2017 acting like terrorists too. 

no, they weren't.  you have just clearly become blind to the terrorism on the right because the people who commit those atrocities perhaps share your extreme partisan views.

The fact that you think protesting = terrorism makes it clear that you dont believe in our first amendment so you are the one who hates our constitution not me

[OSR stands with Israel]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The way I look at it when everything feels uncertain and different takes and data points are all over the place... the most likely outcome is that things revert to their natural course.  This is generally what happened in Iowa and Ohio in 2020.  And even in 2018 when dems made big gains, it was in the places you'd expect (suburbs, cities) and not rural areas or states (where the GOP flipped).  At its core, Virginia is a democratic state.  The voters are generally not in line with GOP policies and ranting about education isn't changing that.  For me, that's more a tell that the GOP knows it's screwed in the suburbs.

Early voting also means there aren't a lot of last minute surprises regarding who shows up.  The vote is being banked and therefore I think the most likely outcome is that counties vote as you'd expect them to.  I expect a few of the close ones like Chesterfield, Stafford, Virginia Beach, etc. might flip and some may even move in opposite directions.  But this isn't going to be enough to wildly swing the overall vote. 

Democrats won the Iowa House delegation vote in 2018

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's shocking... shocking!!! to me that the GOP narrative on this is completely disingenuous!

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1454088148217171973

The GOP, not genuine since at least 2000.

Bush was more genuine than today’s democrats

[OSR stands with Israel]

Youngkin should turn this disgusting episode into a nice final ad.

Yup

[OSR stands with Israel]

Youngkin should turn this disgusting episode into a nice final ad.

Did they not have a plan to attack him on any other issue than this?  Was it not obvious from day 1 that Youngkin isn't Corey Stewart or Trump? 

Well, McAuliffe has always reveled in character-assassination-based campaigns because he’s about the last guy who could convincingly make a case for him or plausibly present himself as overly trustworthy, authentic, in touch, relatable, etc.

I do think that the CA Recall has only emboldened their obsession with tying every single Republican to Trump/Trump-era grievances and/or acting like Trump is still in the White House and/or outright employing Trumpian tactics like these. They probably learned all the wrong lessons from that race.

And Democrats did 5.5 points worse in the recall than they did in 2020 meaning that if that same swing was applied to Virginia then they would only start out with a 4.5 point lead in Virginia to begin with . That isn’t even taking into account that Elder was a worse candidate than Youngkin and the state Republican Party brand in California was a huge reason why the party collapsed there as well while in Virginia it was all due to national politics .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Youngkin should turn this disgusting episode into a nice final ad.

Did they not have a plan to attack him on any other issue than this?  Was it not obvious from day 1 that Youngkin isn't Corey Stewart or Trump? 

Well, McAuliffe has always reveled in character-assassination-based campaigns because he’s about the last guy who could convincingly make a case for him or plausibly present himself as overly trustworthy, authentic, in touch, relatable, etc.

I do think that the CA Recall has only emboldened their obsession with tying every single Republican to Trump/Trump-era grievances and/or acting like Trump is still in the White House and/or outright employing Trumpian tactics like these. They probably learned all the wrong lessons from that race.

And Democrats did 5.5 points worse in the recall than they did in 2020 meaning that if that same swing was applied to Virginia then they would only start out with a 4.5 point lead in Virginia to begin with . That isn’t even taking into account that Elder was a worse candidate than Youngkin and the state Republican Party brand in California was a huge reason why the party collapsed there as well while in Virginia it was all due to national politics .

What was your CA Recall prediction? 

No by 11

It was terrible yes but my presidential election prediction was pretty close to accurate(Only got NC wrong)

[OSR stands with Israel]

MJ or LeBron would be a better debate

[OSR stands with Israel]

At this point I hope Youngkin wins more to trigger NSV than even seeing my party win lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

Cringe

BRTD makes king jokes all the time , so why can’t I . Especially since it rhymes here