Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

Why does the media in the UK like talking about London? In Japan, about Tokyo? In France, about Paris? etc.
Virginia is close to the heart of power, of course it gets a lot of media coverage.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

Cringe

[Nyvin]

If Youngkin wins, it'll be almost entirely thanks to low turnout in the Tidewater area.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.

Whether or not you (and NSV) believe the race is competitive, most of the world believes that it is, and that's what generates the attention.

Also a tip: you don't need to keep responding that way about the competitiveness of the race.  You've made your opinion extremely clear by now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.

Whether or not you (and NSV) believe the race is competitive, most of the world believes that it is, and that's what generates the attention.

Also a tip: you don't need to keep responding that way about the competitiveness of the race.  You've made your opinion extremely clear by now.

Fair point, whatever the truth is about VA elections, if people perceive them to be competitive, they'll treat them as such.

[CookieDamage]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.

Whether or not you (and NSV) believe the race is competitive, most of the world believes that it is, and that's what generates the attention.

Also a tip: you don't need to keep responding that way about the competitiveness of the race.  You've made your opinion extremely clear by now.

I actually hate when someone is so adamant about a point they're making that they have to reiterate it in replies to people who aren't even talking to them. Like yes... you don't believe it's a competitive race... you only have to say it once!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455625211362095111?s=21

[7,052,770]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

All my Trump friends just called and said they're voting for McAuliffe after than poor pun.

[Del Tachi]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

[Non Swing Voter]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I have said all along that very high turnout or very low turnout is good for Dems (because their coalition is high propensity voters + young people/POC) and that Youngkin needed to hit the sweet spot of medium turnout where he can offset the high propensity voters with more suburban and exurban voters but not so high that the cities have high turnout.

Anyways, we are happy not because of total turnout but because of WHERE it's coming from.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624008662233093
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624011380035592
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624014433509388

[7,052,770]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I'm not getting involved in the what-means-what discussion, but it's quite plausible that medium propensity voters lean Republican, while highs and lows both lean Democrat, right?

Thus in that scenario , medium turnout would be good for Youngkin and either extreme would be good for McAuliffe.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455625211362095111?s=21

He's already hedging his sh**** tweets earlier today.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

YoungKING indeed is no republican at all, but a filthy FEDERALIST —an Emperor —an unprincipled banditti of Britiſh ſpeculators —the hireling tool and emiſſary of his majesty king George the 3d.

Virginia Democrats: turn out, turn out, and ſave your country from ruin! Down the the Tories, down with the Britiſh faction!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So at this point, whether Youngkin wins depends on if he can win a sizable chunk of Biden voters, because the depressed D turnout route doesn’t seem to be a viable option anymore.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624008662233093
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624011380035592
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455624014433509388

"Turnout doesn't tell us much"

"Turnout tells us the FoxNews poll was bull****"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I think the naunce was that if turnout was very low, that'd be good for Dems as it would mean the GOP base wouldn't turn out *as much*, and if turnout was very high, that's be good for Dems as well as it means that the state's natural D lean is less likely to be overruled by differential turnout (see: AL-SEN 2017).
But some of that naunce can be lost in all the excitement and glee and salivation.

[Non Swing Voter]

YoungKing more like YawnKing.  But thanks for the meme OSR.

[BigSerg]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

We legit have no results and people are acting like the voters are all McAuliffe or Youngkin voters (hey NSV), we just don't know

[KaiserDave]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

The answer is deleting twitter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

YoungKING indeed is no republican at all, but a filthy FEDERALIST —an Emperor —an unprincipled banditti of Britiſh ſpeculators —the hireling tool and emiſſary of his majesty king George the 3d.

Virginia Democrats: turn out, turn out, and ſave your country from ruin! Down the the Tories, down with the Britiſh faction!

Only by voting for McAuliffe can you defend the Glorious Revolution!

[Xing]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

The answer is deleting twitter.

Best advice ever posted on Atlas.

[Non Swing Voter]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

The answer is deleting twitter.

Best advice ever posted on Atlas.

Yes great advice.

*immediately refreshes twitter for updated turnout reports*

[South Dakota Democrat]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I have said all along that very high turnout or very low turnout is good for Dems (because their coalition is high propensity voters + young people/POC) and that Youngkin needed to hit the sweet spot of medium turnout where he can offset the high propensity voters with more suburban and exurban voters but not so high that the cities have high turnout.

Anyways, we are happy not because of total turnout but because of WHERE it's coming from.

Therefore I believe the culprit to be Phyllis, the person I most medium suspect.