Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1494814756875780114?s=20&t=EF7S-NcRKKE...

[Crumpets]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

Reminder the US and Russia have already engaged in direct armed conflict with casualties and airstrikes just 4 years ago. That did not lead to any massive escalation, and arguably made Russia keener to actively deconflict with the US diplomatically in theaters where both countries have troops.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

And if that's not enough for you, there were at least 18 cases of air-to-air shootdowns between US and Soviet planes in the nuclear era of the Cold War. That doesn't include ground-based shoot-downs or combat in war zones. None of these resulted in nuclear war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-air_combat_losses_between_the_Soviet_Union_and_the_United_States

There is absolutely no strategic advantage to either the US or Russia to use nukes, especially considering neither have so much as tested a single weapon in 30 years. Nukes are reserved for a national existential threat and absolutely nothing short of that would necessitate their use, or even make their use appealing, especially if it might turn out we just have arsenals full of un-maintained duds.

Making our decisions on the assumption that any kinetic engagement with Russia has a >0% chance of leading to nuclear war is not playing it safe, it is actively encouraging Russia to be as aggressive as possible, knowing it will face no serious retaliation from other powers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First "casualties":

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873

What exactly sparked this?

Well, I don't know all the details (Andriy would be more helpful). But the guy who was beaten has very pro-Russian views and has been called for fifth column together with other guy Muraev (whom per UK/US intel Putin would install after taking Kiev) earlier on this debate show. He's against NATO and, I believe, he blamed current situation mostly on Poroshenko's team and didn't want to put much blame on Putin, and that's why he got beaten.

Ah, thanks for the info!
I didn't understand a word from that video, I don't speak, or understand, the Ukrainian language.

[Crumpets]

Now is not the time Duolingo!

[CumbrianLefty]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

Still, at least if it comes soon it means Bolsonaro won't win re-election. Every cloud

[SnowLabrador]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

Still, at least if it comes soon it means Bolsonaro won't win re-election. Every cloud

What does World War III have to do with Bolsonaro's re-election prospects?

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a meme based on your previous posts on the subject.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.axios.com/zelensky-ukraine-munich-security-conference-russia-4f35590e-a9d2-46af-be0e-6bc849283b61.html

https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/595040-zelensky-ukraine-wants-clear-timeframe-for-nato-membership?amp

Strong statements for Zelensky.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1495108893881548809

[TheReckoning]

Bigserg should be unmuted imo

[It’s so Joever]

Bigserg should be unmuted imo

Oh f**k no

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Er, so, a delegation of British political figures - including Mick Antoniw (AS for Pontypridd and a member of the Welsh Government), Adam Price (leader of Plaid Cymru), Mick Whelan (General Secretary of ASLEF) and the journalist Paul Mason have turned up in Kiev with the aim of showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine against official government travel advice.

[rc18]

Er, so, a delegation of British political figures - including Mick Antoniw (AS for Pontypridd and a member of the Welsh Government), Adam Price (leader of Plaid Cymru), Mick Whelan (General Secretary of ASLEF) and the journalist Paul Mason have turned up in Kiev with the aim of showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine against official government travel advice.

I wasn't sure before, but now I know Ukraine is ****ed.

[Person Man]

Bigserg should be unmuted imo

Oh f**k no

Unless sympathizing with an enemy power is legitimate political discourse. How were people sympathetic to the Nazis treated in August 1939 America?

[It’s so Joever]

Bigserg should be unmuted imo

Oh f**k no

Unless sympathizing with an enemy power is legitimate political discourse. How were people sympathetic to the Nazis treated in August 1939 America?

Not too badly tbh iirc

[Silent Hunter]

Er, so, a delegation of British political figures - including Mick Antoniw (AS for Pontypridd and a member of the Welsh Government), Adam Price (leader of Plaid Cymru), Mick Whelan (General Secretary of ASLEF) and the journalist Paul Mason have turned up in Kiev with the aim of showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine against official government travel advice.

They must have had a bit of problem getting travel insurance then - most providers will got cover going to somewhere against FCDO advice, those advisories being used extensively when Covid was worse.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1495057000262254595

Zelensky is obviously talking worst-case-scenario here, but this is a kind of big deal rhetorically. Zelensky seems to be implying that, unless the US and UK come to Ukraine's defense, Ukraine may pursue an independent nuclear weapons program. I kind of doubt Ukraine currently has the capacity to build such a program, and it would also be against the terms of Ukraine accession to the NPT. But since Ukraine joined the NPT as a result of the Budapest Memorandum, Zelensky might be able to pull some crazy legalese interpretation that, absent a Budapest Memorandum in force, Ukraine is grandfathered into the NPT as a nuclear weapons state as it legally had Soviet nuclear weapons at the time the NPT was created.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1495057000262254595

Zelensky is obviously talking worst-case-scenario here, but this is a kind of big deal rhetorically. Zelensky seems to be implying that, unless the US and UK come to Ukraine's defense, Ukraine may pursue an independent nuclear weapons program. I kind of doubt Ukraine currently has the capacity to build such a program, and it would also be against the terms of Ukraine accession to the NPT. But since Ukraine joined the NPT as a result of the Budapest Memorandum, Zelensky might be able to pull some crazy legalese interpretation that, absent a Budapest Memorandum in force, Ukraine is grandfathered into the NPT as a nuclear weapons state as it legally had Soviet nuclear weapons at the time the NPT was created.

That wouldn't even be that crazy. It probably wouldn't hold up in serious international arbitration, but it's nowhere even close to the way the NPT has been stretched to accommodate, say, Israel's "nuclear ambiguity" or whatever apartheid South Africa was doing towards the end.

[Torie]

Zelensky in Munich: “We’re going to protect our country with or without the help of our partners.”

My first take was that Zelensky has nukes in his pantry, and if NATO hangs Ukraine out to dry, Ukraine will not be alone in going down the tubes. And yes, Putin has sealed the deal that as a top national priority, never, ever give up your nukes if you have them0 (and if you don't have them, do your best to fabricate them in your national basement. If you want a friend that will hang with you when the going gets tough as a nation, get a dog. Other nations will sell you out if convenient for a cool new flavor of Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream.

[Splash]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

[It’s so Joever]

LETS KICK SOME **S AGAINST THESE SICKOS!!!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

LETS KICK SOME **S AGAINST THESE SICKOS!!!

You're not helping.

[Person Man]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

[Crumpets]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

So, there definitely are unaccounted for Soviet nukes, and it's possible there's at least one in Ukraine. Although it's much more likely that any such "lost" bomb would be buried deep under some farm where a Soviet plane crashed decades ago in a totally unusable state and without anybody but some aging bureaucrat in Moscow knowing anything about it. But the chances that Ukraine has managed to keep even one nuke under wraps while also maintaining it (weapons-usable isotopes have half lifes ranging between 14 years and 700 million years, among other considerations) without any IAEA inspectors catching on, are slim to none.

There's also a thorough, reliable, global network of nuclear explosion detectors. So, if there were reports of a nuclear blast, we'd know whether those reports were true almost instantly, although there's no doubt you could convince people otherwise (I knew someone who was extremely knowledgeable about military/warfare stuff who was convinced Russia might have tested a nuke in Syria without anyone noticing - it's not true.)

So, the most likely answer to your question is that the attack would immediately be widely blamed on Russia, which I'm sure Russia would deny, but beyond that, we'd be in totally unprecedented territory, and it's impossible to say.

[Person Man]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

So, there definitely are unaccounted for Soviet nukes, and it's possible there's at least one in Ukraine. Although it's much more likely that any such "lost" bomb would be buried deep under some farm where a Soviet plane crashed decades ago in a totally unusable state and without anybody but some aging bureaucrat in Moscow knowing anything about it. But the chances that Ukraine has managed to keep even one nuke under wraps while also maintaining it (weapons-usable isotopes have half lifes ranging between 14 years and 700 million years, among other considerations) without any IAEA inspectors catching on, are slim to none.

There's also a thorough, reliable, global network of nuclear explosion detectors. So, if there were reports of a nuclear blast, we'd know whether those reports were true almost instantly, although there's no doubt you could convince people otherwise (I knew someone who was extremely knowledgeable about military/warfare stuff who was convinced Russia might have tested a nuke in Syria without anyone noticing - it's not true.)

So, the most likely answer to your question is that the attack would immediately be widely blamed on Russia, which I'm sure Russia would deny, but beyond that, we'd be in totally unprecedented territory, and it's impossible to say.

The ultimate question I was asking is that if it happened tonight/in the morning over there, would I be getting up to a mushroom cloud tomorrow?