2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[KingSweden]

I think it’s fair to say Young Kim was House GOP’s Best recruit this cycle, no?

[KingSweden]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar is leading by 7-9 points in an internal poll. Shalala is leading by only 4 in one of her own.This should be a safe pickup. It's probably one of the democrat's biggest recruitment failures of the cycle.

I’d be surprised if Shalalalalalalala loses but JFC what a bad nominee. Zero bench building.

[KingSweden]

FL-6 St Pete Polls: Waltz (R) 48, Soderberg (D) 43

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275276-waltz-soderberg-cd6-poll

Seems in line with Lean R.

Yup

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1045357470879809541

Unsurprising

[KingSweden]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

Could the Erie based NW PA seat fall to the Dems?

Wouldn’t surprise me

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1046753358701309952

Heh I forgot about this guy...

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1046894960220549121

I actually disagree and think Walz helps in the 1st and that the 8th is a tougher oit

[KingSweden]

The actual effect on 538's average so far is really too small to draw conclusions from, but since this forum revolves around drawing conclusions far too early, I can't help myself!

At this point, I feel confident Democrats will comfortably flip the House. My focus on the House PV is more for trying to game out how well Democrats will do in Senate, Gov and legislative races, since the GCB is basically a giant barometer for Democrats in general rather than just the House. I'm much more interested in how they will do further downballot, at the state level.

I too am much more interested in state level stuff

[KingSweden]

Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7

Ipsos tells us about as much as throwing around some goat entrails and having the augurs watch how the birds fly after invoking the name of Jupiter

[KingSweden]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

[KingSweden]

Those are good numbers for the Ds in Cali, frankly better than I expected. It’ll probably help that the gas tax repeal has basically given up, so R turnout may be further depressed

[KingSweden]

I'm not as pessimistic as the OP.

But the Kavanaugh battle is giving me premonitions of the "Access Hollywood" tape--something that should have been damaging and disqualifying for the Republicans but somehow through Repubican populist alchemy, playing off of rural America's general distaste for cultural liberalism, "SJW" Democrats and criticisms of the vaunted patriarchy, turned the election into a culture war that drowned out the many, many reasons that Trump should not have been elected.

Now I see the same lines in the sand being drawn around Kavanaugh and while Democrats have a majority of Americans on their side, the voters in critical red states where we need senate seats are only thinking about Kavanaugh now and not the tax boondoggle, preexisting conditions, the foolish tariffs, the latest misadventures of Trump political appointees, or any of the many many other reasons we need a congressional check on the maniac in the White House.

No wonder Lindsey and the right-wing noise machine are so gleeful in hammering Kavanaugh talking points. And in this debate, we're still paying the price for Bill Clinton's sins. The line of argument is very eye-for-an-eye but in Democrats' unflinching defenses of Bill Clinton, I am starting to see how the shoe was on the other foot...

Also: I blame ing Avenetti. He clearly gave very poor advice to his client and did not sufficiently prepare her for the media firestorm.

End rant...

When did the idea that Access Hollywood *helped* Trump come from? It dinged him for a week or two, then the Comey Letter hit and HillDawg forgot to campaign in the Midwest.

[KingSweden]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Yep, but should be noted its not the first time the IBD/TPP poll had a huge swing.


In the past three months their generic ballot has gone from a tie ---> +11 ---> +2.


I really dont think its a Kavanaugh bounce and its just IBD/TPP being their usual selves.

I lend them as much credence as Reuters/Ipsos

[KingSweden]

Russell +10 in OK-5 sounds about right

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1048575528469495808

:thinking_emoji:

Hmm...

[KingSweden]

The theory on DKe is that Wassu is referring to Marchant

[KingSweden]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

The first three? Nah, though I think they’ve had advantages for a while rather than pulling away. Hawley I’ve seen no evidence for, unless you regard McLolghlin as evidence

[KingSweden]

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

Hey, can we get that guy who had to keep looking up the definition of "hyperbole" over here for a moment?

Wasn’t he tempbanned

[KingSweden]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

Disagree, I think the anger over Kav getting sunk by “MeToo” would have had a much more galvanizing effect on the Republicans.

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Whoa!

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

No, I get it, and I’d like to know too. The statewide races in this poll suggest its roughly in line with the state as a whole (Casey leads by a similar margin and Wolf slightly more).

[KingSweden]

North Carolina (SurveyUSA):

Democrats 48
Republicans 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3ce61747-3fa0-497c-8112-436784634eb4

With NC being R+3 in PVI, this translates to a national margin being D+8.

Right around where the average has been for a whole year or so

(Presuming a uniform swing, of course)

[KingSweden]

For the sake of consistency, I will be skeptical of those Politico/MC numbers

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1050035335399387136

It’s almost as if we should be patient before hot takes