2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Zaybay]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

I’m not ignoring the House and Governorships. But let’s be honest, even if they take
over the house it’ll be by a 10 seat majority of something like that. Nothing major.
Still good but nothing like what we had back before 2010.

And the Governorships are nice but can we win enough of them to undo the rigged
gerrymandering?  Doubt if.

To the house, a large majority isnt needed. It was in 2008-2010, when we needed to govern and had to deal with rebellious Blue Dogs, but not now. All we need is actual control.

For the governorships, a definite yes to your question. The Dems are leading in MI, PA, MN, WI, FL, IL, and could win OH and GA, all of which are key to redistricting efforts. The Ds are likely to completely blunt any R expansion due to this and will be able to expand due to IL and NY getting trifectas.

 

[Florida Man for Crime]

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

It is not like McGrath doesn't have millions to waste on ads of her own. With the amount of money going into the Lexington media market, there won't be a single non-political commercial airing over the next month there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

It is not like McGrath doesn't have millions to waste on ads of her own. With the amount of money going into the Lexington media market, there won't be a single non-political commercial airing over the next month there.

Is there a way to know how much money a campaign spends on ads and how much on staff, voter mobilization, etc.?

[Virginiá]

I’m not ignoring the House and Governorships. But let’s be honest, even if they take
over the house it’ll be by a 10 seat majority of something like that. Nothing major.
Still good but nothing like what we had back before 2010.

And the Governorships are nice but can we win enough of them to undo the rigged
gerrymandering?  Doubt if.

Huh? Pennsylvania has a Democratic incumbent crushing his opponent in every poll. Michigan's Democratic candidate is also crushing her opponent in every poll. Wisconsin's Democratic candidate is leading Walker in every poll. Florida's Democratic candidate is winning in every poll. Minnesota's Democratic candidate is winning in every poll. Illinois's Democratic candidate is crushing Rauner in every poll. Nevada's Democratic candidate is winning in every recent poll. Ohio and Iowa are tossups with no clear frontrunners.

What do you mean you have doubts? We are in an incredibly good position to completely block the GOP's gerrymandering schemes in almost every major redistricting battleground state.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

It is not like McGrath doesn't have millions to waste on ads of her own. With the amount of money going into the Lexington media market, there won't be a single non-political commercial airing over the next month there.

Is there a way to know how much money a campaign spends on ads and how much on staff, voter mobilization, etc.?

FEC reports have publically available spending data, but obviously with a lag by reporting periods. There are also private firms that monitor ad spending in real time, so the campaigns themselves and DCCC/NRCC/Superpacs know all of that, but I don't think any of that is publicly available at the moment (I recall some of that being available in the past, though from news organizations).

[Podgy the Bear]

The Democrats would be smart to stay focused.    The hole that has been dug over the last 8 years is huge, and it was always going to take a long time to pull out.

The House takeover remains quite probable.
There will be multiple switches at the gubernatorial level (Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada most likely; Ohio, Florida, and Georgia are possible).
Many pickups at the state legislature level.
And as for the Senate, still a chance to keep it close (with Arizona and Tennessee remaining the likeliest  pickups--probably will lose North Dakota).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems only manufacture a 272 gubernatorial map and fail to recapture the Senate, the implications on reappointment will give the GOP a friewal against in the 2020 election again. Again, reassuring, the conservatives another favorable map in 2021.

Dems need FL, OH and more governorships to get the upper hand in reappointment, that they may not get.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

[President Johnson]

The Republican numbers are currently on the rise, this is true. Of course it is possible that Democrats fail to take to House and we end up with a 53-47 Republican senate at the end of the day. However, I don't think it's likely. Election Day is still four weeks away and the likely confirmation of Kavanaugh will benefit the Democrats due to base turnout. Keep calm folks.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

A “joke”?

Heller has held on in ALOT of polls. Nevada is a lean blue state but not a shoe in by any stretch. Rosen isn’t the best canidate.

[ON Progressive]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

A “joke”?

Heller has held on in ALOT of polls. Nevada is a lean blue state but not a shoe in by any stretch. Rosen isn’t the best canidate.

Heller has held on to the low 40s, but he hasn’t gone past that in pretty much any poll.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1047895543639420928

It's an internal, so that's consistent with a close race.

[bilaps]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

LOL at Republicans losing TN

[Matty]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

[BudgieForce]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Yep, but should be noted its not the first time the IBD/TPP poll had a huge swing.


In the past three months their generic ballot has gone from a tie ---> +11 ---> +2.


I really dont think its a Kavanaugh bounce and its just IBD/TPP being their usual selves.

[KingSweden]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Yep, but should be noted its not the first time the IBD/TPP poll had a huge swing.


In the past three months their generic ballot has gone from a tie ---> +11 ---> +2.


I really dont think its a Kavanaugh bounce and its just IBD/TPP being their usual selves.

I lend them as much credence as Reuters/Ipsos

[BudgieForce]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Yep, but should be noted its not the first time the IBD/TPP poll had a huge swing.


In the past three months their generic ballot has gone from a tie ---> +11 ---> +2.


I really dont think its a Kavanaugh bounce and its just IBD/TPP being their usual selves.

I lend them as much credence as Reuters/Ipsos

I know their polls are supposed to be good, but they do editorialize their results pretty badly. That alone makes me wary of them.

Edit: Also claiming to be the most accurate pollster with Rasmussen when they were constant outliers during the election is frustrating.

[Ebsy]

IBD/TPP was the worst national pollster in 2016, off by 4 points in favor of Trump.

[BudgieForce]

IBD/TPP was the worst national pollster in 2016, off by 4 points in favor of Trump.

Their claim, not mine.

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[Ronnie]

I have a feeling Republicans are going to regret not dragging out the Kavanaugh fight until late October because they seem to be peaking a little early.  A month is still a long time in politics.

[MT Treasurer]

I have a feeling Republicans are going to regret not dragging out the Kavanaugh fight until late October because they seem to be peaking a little early.  A month is still a long time in politics.

That’s a very good point, actually. I was wondering the same.

[ON Progressive]

IBD/TPP

Dems 45
GOP 43

Down from 11 point lead last month

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

This is the same pollster that swung 17 points (from R+4 to D+13) in a week in July.

[Mr. Smith]

Even if your scenario does play out, we’d still have a reasonable shot in 2020. CO, AZ, ME, IA, and maybe MT and GA will be on the table, while the only vulnerable seat is AL.

If the Senate is 53R-47D or worse after 2018, the 2020 Senate map is near impossible

Not really, NC, GA [especially if Abrams wins], CO, IA, and AZ would be all that would be needed in such a case. That should be doable if the burbs keep swinging as they have and the Midwest [besides North Dakota] remains swingy.

[new_patomic]

I don't trust these wild swings.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, IBD is a right-wing rag.