2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Outlier

[BudgieForce]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

That's better than I thought. If Republicans were gonna take the lead in a generic ballot poll after last week, it was gonna be Rasmussen. Guess the best they could do is a tie.

[Vern]

I'm gonna laugh on election night when Republicans hold the house and pick-up seats in the senate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

And let me guess. 538 gives it twice the weight as each of the +13 polls.

[BudgieForce]

I'm gonna laugh on election night when Republicans hold the house and pick-up seats in the senate.

Based off the Rasmussen poll? Lol okay than.

[Yank2133]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

And just like that... pundits are wrong again. My problem I think with these pundits though is that they are so assured they are right, and then get defensive when presented with evidence that they were wrong.

The problem with pundits is they buy what into any narrative GOP operatives tell them.

[BudgieForce]

https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-schar-school-va-10-poll/2338/

VA-10:
Wexton(D) - 55%
Comstock(R) - 43%

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1050035335399387136

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

And let me guess. 538 gives it twice the weight as each of the +13 polls.

Nope.  They've now been added, and here are the recent polls with weights:

1.41 Ipsos D+13
1.40 Emerson D+8
1.12 CNN D+13
0.65 Morning Consult D+10
0.48 Rasmussen Tie
0.44 Harris D+8

"One of these things is not like the others..."

[Person Man]

Rasssssss GCB: 45-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

And let me guess. 538 gives it twice the weight as each of the +13 polls.

Nope.  They've now been added, and here are the recent polls with weights:

1.41 Ipsos D+13
1.40 Emerson D+8
1.12 CNN D+13
0.65 Morning Consult D+10
0.48 Rasmussen Tie
0.44 Harris D+8

"One of these things is not like the others..."

So, if we count Rasmussen, we are at 8.6%. If we trash it, that gives us 10.4%.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/adam_kels/status/1050038248318197760

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can monmouth stop repolling lean D districts?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1050035335399387136

It’s almost as if we should be patient before hot takes

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277137-nancy-soderberg-michael-waltz-statistically-tied-in-cd-6

FL-6 Greenburg Quinlan Rosner (Soderberg internal): Waltz (R) 45, Soderberg (D) 45

[Strong Candidate]

Shock Poll!
https://twitter.com/Callahan4Oregon/status/1049889664214192129

In all seriousness, what's the better Gravis poll, this one or the Austin Peterson one?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

In the 2014 Midterms, Rasmussen also had it as a tie for two GCB polls in October. Uh oh. Maybe the final result at the end really will be R+something.

Maybe you guys should consider switching your vote from D to R at this point.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

In the 2014 Midterms, Rasmussen also had it as a tie for two GCB polls in October. Uh oh. Maybe the final result at the end really will be R+something.

Maybe you guys should consider switching your vote from D to R at this point.

This is sad on your part

[ProgressiveCanadian]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

In the 2014 Midterms, Rasmussen also had it as a tie for two GCB polls in October. Uh oh. Maybe the final result at the end really will be R+something.

Maybe you guys should consider switching your vote from D to R at this point.

Man you right wingers are getting pretty desperate now huh? I'd be worried too if the opposing party had a 30 point advantage with women.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

In the 2014 Midterms, Rasmussen also had it as a tie for two GCB polls in October. Uh oh. Maybe the final result at the end really will be R+something.

Maybe you guys should consider switching your vote from D to R at this point.

This is sad on your part

I'm being bold and proactive for my cause.

and @ProgressiveCanadian: that 63D, 33R result for women is sketchy

[Xing]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

In the 2014 Midterms, Rasmussen also had it as a tie for two GCB polls in October. Uh oh. Maybe the final result at the end really will be R+something.

Maybe you guys should consider switching your vote from D to R at this point.

This is sad on your part

I'm being bold and proactive for my cause.

and @ProgressiveCanadian: that 63D, 33R result for women is sketchy

Surely Republicans will win if the ciritical US Election Atlas dot org vote can be swayed into voting Republicans.

[ON Progressive]

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277137-nancy-soderberg-michael-waltz-statistically-tied-in-cd-6

FL-6 Greenburg Quinlan Rosner (Soderberg internal): Waltz (R) 45, Soderberg (D) 45

It's a point improvement from the last internal (46-44 Waltz), so that's not bad. But it's still an internal, and we do have an independent poll with Waltz up 4.

We're probably not going to win here, but it seems fairly competitive and I wouldn't rule out a win here on a very good night.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/adam_kels/status/1050038248318197760

I’ve been saying he’ll be a probable 2022 Senate candidate ever since his March win. He could even beat Toomey in a neutralish year with a D President

And if Trump is reelected, I can see him running and winning if he doesn't f[ink] up somewhere.

[libertpaulian]

(R)asmussen's best attempt to cook the numbers in favor of the GOP is a TIE?!?!?!?!

Yeah...there'll be no red wave.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

(R)asmussen's best attempt to cook the numbers in favor of the GOP is a TIE?!?!?!?!

Yeah...there'll be no red wave.

Plus, 538 went up to D +8.3 even with the new Raslosin' poll.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

(R)asmussen's best attempt to cook the numbers in favor of the GOP is a TIE?!?!?!?!

Yeah...there'll be no red wave.

but what if they aren't cooking the numbers?

what if it's the D+something polls being cooked?