2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did we really need a topic for this, much less in the General Discussion thread?

Atlas libs create threads for the slightest of polling bumps in favor of Dems. Thought I'd join the party.

Yeah, I'm a longtime lurker and I don't recall seeing individual threads for changes in the generic ballot.

But hey, generic ballot is down to D+6.6.  This means Democrats should definitely start panicking immediately!!!! 

[Florida Man for Crime]

mods pls drone/merge with the generic ballot thread.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

[BudgieForce]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

[BudgieForce]

Time for the monthly "Dems in Disarray" moment.

[2016]

Mark my words:

Any Democrat who thinks that the Dems win the House Popular Vote by 10+ Points is absolutely hyperbolic.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

Have you tried #WalkingAway from a computer yet?

It is thought that Dems need to win the NPV by 7 points to retake House control. GCB currently stands at D+6.6. Don't count any chickens yet...

This post is the result of attacks on Planned Parenthood.

[Person Man]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

Have you tried #WalkingAway from a computer yet?

Dick Morris on steroids...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How about if we delete IBD's laughable D +2 poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

Have you tried #WalkingAway from a computer yet?

Dick Morris on steroids...

Eventually these people may realize there's a key difference in 2018 vs. 2010-2016.  But it probably won't be until November 7.

[Yank2133]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Were you here for the 2012 election?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Well you heard NYC Millenial Minority guys, the Democrats will get blown out in November, the GOP will gain seats, and the Presidency will be Republican forever.  

Might as well just tear down Democratic party and register as Republicans.  

Yeah, you might as well join the GOP at this point.

[Person Man]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Were you here for the 2012 election?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/2dVJW

[Person Man]

Well you heard NYC Millenial Minority guys, the Democrats will get blown out in November, the GOP will gain seats, and the Presidency will be Republican forever.  

Might as well just tear down Democratic party and register as Republicans.  

Yeah, you might as well join the GOP at this point.

I would but I just can't afford to be Republican yet. Maybe if I get a promotion or something, I'll be making enough.

[Vern]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

[BudgieForce]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

[ON Progressive]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

The issue with that theory is that they don’t really have much room to go up in safe seats. Tossup seats are what get the disproportionate swings in waves, not safe holds.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a decline isn't happening.

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a collapse isn't happening.

The 2 most recent polls are D +8.

[Vern]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

The issue with that theory is that they don’t really have much room to go up in safe seats. Tossup seats are what get the disproportionate swings in waves, not safe holds.

This may be true. Like I said, not saying it will happen. Just a thought.

[Ebsy]

jao

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

[BudgieForce]

RCP and 538 don't lie. The burden of proof is on Red Avatars to numerically prove that a collapse isn't happening.

538 has been and still is relatively stable. RCP's average has always been very bouncy. If you look at the average on RCP, we've seen two "collapses". One in June and one in August. Both quickly recovered in less than 2 weeks.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Instead of mocking, use actual data to prove them wrong. Otherwise, the point stands. The Blue Wave is dead like I said it would.