2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Tender Branson]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll.  

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

In the 2016 cycle, there were 7-8 polls released nationally and in the 4 early states between January 1st and 10th, however I don't believe all of them would be qualifying this time around since DNC's rules are so super strict when it comes to which polls they accept. We're probably talking somewhere in the 4 to 7 qualifying polls range before the deadline. Possibly more if CNN, the next debate moderator, decides to do a state poll in each of the 4 early states (not out of the realms of possibilities in my opinion, as most political journalists and commentators on CNN are starting to lean hardcore YangGang in the last few weeks, especially since the last CNN debate). And also because they want to stick it to MSNBC that they are fair and impartial, unlike them, NBC and Comcast. ABC could do a couple of extra polls too, due in parts to pressure from The View panel, where at least 2 out of 6 (Whoopi and McCain, possibly Abby Huntsman as well) are really hardcore YangGang as well.

I assume that virtually no qualifying polls will be released until Jan. 10th this time ...

Maybe YouGov, Morning Consult and Ipsos.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

[Tender Branson]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

True, but there likely won’t be a „flurry of polls“ until Jan. 10th.

Maybe a Quinnipiac or Monmouth poll, but that’s it.

CNN and all others polled shortly before Christmas and usually only do once a month, which would be after the deadline.

And CNN etc. have never really cared about debate deadlines for polls in the past, somwhy would they now ? I assume most qualifying polls will be released after Jan. 10th.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

True, but there likely won’t be a „flurry of polls“ until Jan. 10th.

Maybe a Quinnipiac or Monmouth poll, but that’s it.

CNN and all others polled shortly before Christmas and usually only do once a month, which would be after the deadline.

And CNN etc. have never really cared about debate deadlines for polls in the past, somwhy would they now ? I assume most qualifying polls will be released after Jan. 10th.

The case for there being more polls early-ish in January would be that we're only a few weeks away from Iowa, and the frequency of polls could start increasing.  There would have been a dearth of polls from all pollsters during the Christmas-New Year's period, so maybe several pollsters will kick off the new year with a table setting early-Jan. poll, regardless of what their previous schedule is.  It's unlikely, but probably a better bet for national polls for Yang than expecting some more qualifying polls in Nevada for Steyer.

[weixiaobao]

Yang already score 5% in couple of New Hampshire polls.  So there is that also.

[Queen Isuelt]

https://twitter.com/ZachandMattShow/status/1210096126982066177

The race has definitely changed on the ground but all we get week after week are the same national polls  and we've had nothing from early state polls.

Seriously we need POLLS!!!

Yang can only qualify if he hits 5% in nationals.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bernie is dominating and they are trying to keep us in the dark.  SAD!!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's understandable that organizations with a limited amount of resources for polling would avoid doing so during the holidays (both Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year's).  We should start to see new polls in the next couple of weeks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Buttigieg,  Warren and Sanders are gonna split the vote in IA and NH and NV and CA, and Biden is gonna win SC. But, still we need more polls

[Bidenworth2020]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

[Bidenworth2020]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

[NYSforKennedy2024]

This is such a Yang concern troll talking point, lmao.

[Bidenworth2020]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

Fair enough. We do need more polls, however.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

Fair enough. We do need more polls, however.

I agree.  It is Christmas, though.  This is the calm before an inundation of Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

[Cinemark]

https://twitter.com/jaselzer/status/1212815962921164802

[Tender Branson]

I hope something gets released next week, even though I’m not all too optimistic.

I think Yang, Steyer & Co. will definitely not be in the January debate.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac? I suspect that it will be polling this weekend. Ipsos?

[Tender Branson]

LOL:

D.N.C. Tells Pollsters To Do More Polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/us/politics/dnc-debate-polls.html

[eric82oslo]

I hope something gets released next week, even though I’m not all too optimistic.

I think Yang, Steyer & Co. will definitely not be in the January debate.

Then Yang is gonna get even more CNN coverage, It's gonna quadruple or quintuple overnight. No doubt about it, you heard it here first.

[eric82oslo]

LOL:

D.N.C. Tells Pollsters To Do More Polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/us/politics/dnc-debate-polls.html

Maybe because everyone knows, and slowly realizes, that he'll make the best president. Final stop.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Yang is not a serious candidate and if he doesn't make the stage, thank God.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's not the DNC's fault if these universities and news organizations don't make polls.

It is to a certain extent, considering that they designated only these (usually reliable) pollsters to count towards the debate, especially when one considers that there are reputable pollsters like MC that are excluded.

Morning Consult's poll isn't a real poll.  They are using the same pool of people for every iteration and just tracking how those people change their minds.  That is why the numbers are always the same.

Fair, but the point still stands.

Which poll do you want?

The state polls I see for December are:
Emerson (lol)
Change Research (definitely not)
Civiqs (who?)
FairVote (who?)
WBUR NH (maybe legit?)

Fair enough. We do need more polls, however.

I agree.  It is Christmas, though.  This is the calm before an inundation of Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

Polling is hard to do over the holidays, so the pause in polling is neither unusual or unexpected. The only time we got a bunch of December polls was in 2012 when Iowa and New Hampshire were in early January. South Carolina was in late January that year and got only three December polls, all well before the Holidays. So basically the DNC picked an odd timeframe for the polling window unless the intent was to provide additional winnowing of candidates with marginal support without appearing to do so.