2023 UK Local Elections

[TheTide]

Kinda wondering how long the British far-right is going to remain electorally collapsed, Reform and Reclaim seem to have flopped but all those BNP/UKIP voters didn't just vanish.

The actual far-right (as in the BNP, NF, UKIP in its present form etc) doesn't show any particular signs of electoral life. As for the populist hard right (Reform, UKIP in its Farage form etc), Brexit has dealt a blow (in the sense that the Leave vote was a big eff you to the establishment and elite etc, so what's the point of further eff yous?) but a future revival can't be ruled out.

[afleitch]

I'm also confused by the national forecasts; yes the Labour lead would for them ideally be bigger but all the evidence (by-elections, mayoral elections etc) show that the very large Liberal Democrat vote is prepared to vote tactically for Labour & vice versa.

An effective tactical voting game in England and a modest revival of seats in Scotland could mean they don't need the previously expected huge lead over the Conservatives.

This is a very good effort post on the matter. Well worth a read.

https://beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history

Basically, Labour always do worse at locals. When they are in power at Westminster, even worse still. You can't compare an x Tory lead under a Labour government to an x Labour lead under a Tory one.

The projected lead is in line with a 15pt lead in the polls. Labour have performed exactly where they should have.

[Oryxslayer]

East Riding goes to NOC despite this being one of the safer Tory councils. Lib-Dems get the lions share of the 20 losses.

Labour win a 1seat majority in York. Greens were the big losers from the parking permit scandal, since all their seats were in the city center it affected.

West Suffolk also falls to NOC, Labour making the big double didget gains here

Stockport remains in NOC, Tory collapse to all parties, the Lib-Dems remain in minority control.

[Serenity Now]

I voted around 1.30pm in Brighton & Hove, it wasn't busy at my Polling Station. The 'vibe' I'm sensing here is that the Green vote is largely holding up compared to 2019 but I think the national trend will mean enough Labour vote gains / Conservative vote losses for Labour to leapfrog the Greens in terms of seats to win a minority on the council. I feel they will fall short of a majority though.

I am incorrect if rumours circulating the local press* are anything to go by, whereby apparently the Green leader is at risk of losing his seat to Labour (which would be harbinger of a Labour majority or even landslide). The ward in question is Brunswick & Adelaide, which was voted reliably Green the last few local elections, although would almost certainly have voted Labour in recent general elections as it was in the Hove Constituency. It may well be the first ward to declare in the city.

*I would share some links but the websites are horribly cluttered with ads..

Yep, Labour are crushing it in Brighton & Hove and are definitely on course for a majority now. They have already taken two notionally (there have been boundary changes) Green and Tory wards apiece.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Results from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (probably the  most Tory historically urban conurbation in the country)

Lib Dem 27 (+12)
Conservative 12 (-24)
Labour 11 (+8)
Christchurch Independents 8 (-)
Independents 6 (+3)
Green 5 (+3)
Poole People 5 (-2)
Poole Engage 2 (+2)
(Alliance for Local Living -1
UKIP -1)

[Oryxslayer]

Results from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (probably the previously most Tory urban conurbation in the country)

Lib Dem 27 (+12)
Conservative 12 (-24)
Labour 11 (+8)
Christchurch Independents 8 (-)
Independents 6 (+3)
Green 5 (+3)
Poole People 5 (-2)
Poole Engage 2 (+2)
(Alliance for Local Living -1
UKIP -1)

That local incompetence wave did mostly go to the Lib-dems after all.

[Logical]

Tories went from largest party in Lewes with 19 seats to 0 seats. Lab, LD and Greens share the spoils about equally.

[Oryxslayer]

Last Tory Council in Oxfordshire, Cherwell, falls.

Tories lost 13 seats in Warwick, mainly to Greens and Labour, Greens now on top.

in contrast to the rest of Kent, no Tory losses in Dartford. A lone bright spot.

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

[JimJamUK]

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

One ward was won with 91 votes. No, you did read that correctly, not by, with.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

One ward was won with 91 votes. No, you did read that correctly, not by, with.

Any reason it was so low turnout ?

[Blair]

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

One ward was won with 91 votes. No, you did read that correctly, not by, with.

Any reason it was so low turnout ?

IIRC they've re-done the new wards based on future modelling of population or something weird and some of the city centre ones have v few actual residents (restaurants & hotels can't vote!)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

One ward was won with 91 votes. No, you did read that correctly, not by, with.

Any reason it was so low turnout ?

IIRC they've re-done the new wards based on future modelling of population or something weird and some of the city centre ones have v few actual residents (restaurants & hotels can't vote!)

That seems to be pretty dumb, what happens if those models are wrong ?

[YL]

No seismic losses for Labour in Liverpool, despite all that has happened.

One ward was won with 91 votes. No, you did read that correctly, not by, with.

Any reason it was so low turnout ?

IIRC they've re-done the new wards based on future modelling of population or something weird and some of the city centre ones have v few actual residents (restaurants & hotels can't vote!)

That seems to be pretty dumb, what happens if those models are wrong ?

Then the next review might be sooner than expected!

I mentioned this as a possibility upthread somewhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour gain Chester West and Chester.

Canterbury looking like a Labour minority with one of the Greens or Lib-Dems.

Thanet has a 30 seat Labour majority now.

Labour are going to be the largest party in Swale.

Lib-Dems make big gains for the majority in West Berkshire.

Wirral remains in NOC, Labour's losses to the Greens were more numerous than expected meaning they needed more gains off the conservatives to get the majority then Labour actually got.

[Alcibiades]

This is actually a really impressive performance by the Lib Dems — they’ve only gained slightly over 100 fewer seats than Labour have (which is obviously a much bigger proportional gain) — and that’s despite the fact that in a lot of the relevant councils (especially those where the Tories are their main opponents), they already had exceptionally good results in 2019.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Results from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (probably the  most Tory historically urban conurbation in the country)

Lib Dem 27 (+12)
Conservative 12 (-24)
Labour 11 (+8)
Christchurch Independents 8 (-)
Independents 6 (+3)
Green 5 (+3)
Poole People 5 (-2)
Poole Engage 2 (+2)
(Alliance for Local Living -1
UKIP -1)

Poolean People’s Front vs the People’s Front of Poole

[Torrain]

Lib Dems winning so handily on Michael Gove’s home turf is interesting. Was a little skeptical of their claims to the Blue Wall - but it does seem to be bearing out.

Seat was Tory with UKIP in second place for a while - quite a turn around!

[Oryxslayer]

Man Labour are sweeping Brighton, the Greens are collapsing not just the anticipated Tories.

Labour hold Leicester despite them trying everything to lose it. Soulsby also won, seemingly solely thanks to the office becoming FPTP.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1654544957535924224?s=20

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Results from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (probably the  most Tory historically urban conurbation in the country)

Lib Dem 27 (+12)
Conservative 12 (-24)
Labour 11 (+8)
Christchurch Independents 8 (-)
Independents 6 (+3)
Green 5 (+3)
Poole People 5 (-2)
Poole Engage 2 (+2)
(Alliance for Local Living -1
UKIP -1)

Poolean People’s Front vs the People’s Front of Poole

I’m sad that there’s no Poole Party

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1654544771388416004

[jaichind]

[Tintrlvr]

This is actually a really impressive performance by the Lib Dems — they’ve only gained slightly over 100 fewer seats than Labour have (which is obviously a much bigger proportional gain) — and that’s despite the fact that in a lot of the relevant councils (especially those where the Tories are their main opponents), they already had exceptionally good results in 2019.

The expectations for the Lib Dems were also fairly low because of the high floor they had from 2019 going into these elections. Really strong overperformance for them. Labour of course also doing well, but more like meeting what were definitely very high expectations going in than exceeding them.

And the Greens are putting up as much of an overperformance as the Lib Dems or more, although even more than the Lib Dems it's hard to necessarily think of them as a nationally cohesive party at local elections. I can't imagine the newly elected majority in Mid Suffolk would agree with the Green caucus in Brighton on almost any issue beyond some very localist preservationist concerns. Is Mid Suffolk the first council to elect a Green majority?

[oldtimer]

1000 loses crossed.

We have real votes that Sunak sucks.
 
And Sunak sucks more than Theresa May, since he won 1000 less than her, in her final days in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

Litchfeild just barely goes NOC, 23 Con, 24 Lab + Lib with 13 opposition gains.

Labour Barely retain the largest party in fractured Lancaster. but the fracturing actually is less that 2019. The Tories and localists got squeezed out by Labour and the Green dogfight.

Labour make 9 gains in South Derbyshire for a majority.

13 Lib-Dem gains of the Tories in Horsham for a majority.

Sevenoaks, expected to be safe Conservative, still sees double digit Tory losses as the Conservatives hold the council.

Officially >1000 Conservative Losses according to BBC tracker

[Alcibiades]

This is actually a really impressive performance by the Lib Dems — they’ve only gained slightly over 100 fewer seats than Labour have (which is obviously a much bigger proportional gain) — and that’s despite the fact that in a lot of the relevant councils (especially those where the Tories are their main opponents), they already had exceptionally good results in 2019.

The expectations for the Lib Dems were also fairly low because of the high floor they had from 2019 going into these elections. Really strong overperformance for them. Labour of course also doing well, but more like meeting what were definitely very high expectations going in than exceeding them.

And the Greens are putting up as much of an overperformance as the Lib Dems or more, although even more than the Lib Dems it's hard to necessarily think of them as a nationally cohesive party at local elections. I can't imagine the newly elected majority in Mid Suffolk would agree with the Green caucus in Brighton on almost any issue beyond some very localist preservationist concerns. Is Mid Suffolk the first council to elect a Green majority?

Indeed. Rather a funny place for it to happen too — I suspect most would have bet on Brighton or Bristol being the first!