2023 UK Local Elections

[Death of a Salesman]

Be interesting to see if the Greens will try to replicate their success in the locals in parliamentary elections - or if they’ll just run a Bristol West by-election campaign for the third general election running. I’d have to imagine they’d at least have a chance in Bury St Edmunds or whatever Mid Suffolk looks like in the next GE on those numbers.

Will also be interesting to see what, if any, cooperation there is between the Lib Dem’s and Greens in the next GE. As an example a seat like Lewes should be an obvious Tory loss, but if the Lib Dem’s and Greens did both go hard at it - the Tories could survive on ~30%.

Trying to roughly model how seats would break, I get something like this.

I think this model overestimates how well the (Rejoin Pact?) would do in poor and heavily nonwhite areas of London, and underestimates how well they could do running a KO style campaign in the Home Counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I missed the election. What happened?

[Oryxslayer]

Also, I think it bears mentioning that this truly was the moment the Greens entered primetime. They are set to lead just under10 more councils after these results, almost all in normally blue shires, and thats before we consider how their gains make them coalition partners in many more. Now obviously part of their strength flows from the same source as the Lib-Dems, and part is just NIMBYs but with trees which won't carry over to a GE. But one would think the Greens will learn and not run a left-of-labour campaign in 2024 when they have been mostly stagnant in those type of areas. Especially since Labour are going to be gaining votes even in the former Green targets at the same GE.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think we should wait to see if they are able to entrench any of their council gains before declaring the green moment has arrived. They've just lost brighton and hove which was the only council they'd ever lead an administration in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Good to see a decent LibDem and Green performance. The Tories got crushed, but I think Sunak is safe for now.

[Blair]

What are peoples thoughts on the National Vote Share data?

It’s v funny how after an awful day when it was revised by Sky every single Tory is now claiming it was a terrible result for labour and things are actually fine.

Which seems bizarre as A.) the third parties won’t get 20+% B.) Labours targeting operation worked.

[Benjamin Frank]

Also, I think it bears mentioning that this truly was the moment the Greens entered primetime. They are set to lead just under10 more councils after these results, almost all in normally blue shires, and thats before we consider how their gains make them coalition partners in many more. Now obviously part of their strength flows from the same source as the Lib-Dems, and part is just NIMBYs but with trees which won't carry over to a GE. But one would think the Greens will learn and not run a left-of-labour campaign in 2024 when they have been mostly stagnant in those type of areas. Especially since Labour are going to be gaining votes even in the former Green targets at the same GE.

Any reason to think that some of these Green councils will be loony left?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Also, I think it bears mentioning that this truly was the moment the Greens entered primetime. They are set to lead just under10 more councils after these results, almost all in normally blue shires, and thats before we consider how their gains make them coalition partners in many more. Now obviously part of their strength flows from the same source as the Lib-Dems, and part is just NIMBYs but with trees which won't carry over to a GE. But one would think the Greens will learn and not run a left-of-labour campaign in 2024 when they have been mostly stagnant in those type of areas. Especially since Labour are going to be gaining votes even in the former Green targets at the same GE.

It's not commented on much by the media (because the media is mostly ignorant and stupid), but environmentalism appeals to a certain kind of small-c conservative voter as well as to the more predictable groups.

[Benjamin Frank]

Also, I think it bears mentioning that this truly was the moment the Greens entered primetime. They are set to lead just under10 more councils after these results, almost all in normally blue shires, and thats before we consider how their gains make them coalition partners in many more. Now obviously part of their strength flows from the same source as the Lib-Dems, and part is just NIMBYs but with trees which won't carry over to a GE. But one would think the Greens will learn and not run a left-of-labour campaign in 2024 when they have been mostly stagnant in those type of areas. Especially since Labour are going to be gaining votes even in the former Green targets at the same GE.

It's not commented on much by the media (because the media is mostly ignorant and stupid), but environmentalism appeals to a certain kind of small-c conservative voter as well as to the more predictable groups.

From what I've seen, the British media is vastly superior to the American media and is a fair bit better than the Canadian media.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the most interesting 'deep data' results from these elections has to be from the Black Country. Not that the Tories held on, no that's purely the product of the thirds system of electing councilors. If everyone was up, or if one of the 2021 or 2022 classes were then the region would be just as red as the rest of the country. More I think its interesting because the Tories effectively matched 2019 here, whereas almost everywhere else - including such safe areas as Lincolnshire or the rural eastern shires - saw the bottom fall out. But Labour didn't advance at all in the Black Country councils. This is in contrast to other urban Leave-voting areas that are demographically similar which are all going to have Labour administrations of one type or another thanks to big Labour gains.

I think that's reading a bit much into things: Labour had unexpectedly good results in Dudley borough in the 2019 locals and most of the wards not won this year will never realistically elect Labour councillors absent freak circumstances (the main exception was a ward randomly lost against the general trend due to the incumbent councillor being personally unpopular: other than that it's really just one ward these days. There's basically a division between the Black Country wards and the wards dominated by postwar suburbia), whereas in Sandwell the Tories essentially ran paper candidates even in their good wards in the 2019 locals (producing a genuinely surreal set of results that were noted as such at the time), making comparisons pointless. Walsall is different (where Labour had decent advances in a large number of wards but managed to gain none of them), but then Walsall always produces odd results: e.g. in 2021 Labour held up a lot better there than in other councils in the area, which was not expected.

Which makes one wonder if the 2019 results here are the good-for-Labour benchmarks.

Very much not: there are wards they won about two-to-one on Thursday that they lost about two-to-one in the General Election and that's not an exaggeration.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are peoples thoughts on the National Vote Share data?

It’s v funny how after an awful day when it was revised by Sky every single Tory is now claiming it was a terrible result for labour and things are actually fine.

Which seems bizarre as A.) the third parties won’t get 20+% B.) Labours targeting operation worked.

It's always been a bit of a joke (I'm old enough to remember all manner of implausible totals during the Blair era so have never been a fan) and this time around the figures genuinely don't line up with the results on display, which suggests that they've made severe errors somewhere. If there's a set of local elections in which Labour do very well in the North Midlands and in the grottier parts of Kent and your model suggests a Hung Parliament, then your model is clearly broken.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those that like a good laugh, Labour did pretty well in the constituencies of both Liz Truss and Matt Hancock.

[Blair]

Also, I think it bears mentioning that this truly was the moment the Greens entered primetime. They are set to lead just under10 more councils after these results, almost all in normally blue shires, and thats before we consider how their gains make them coalition partners in many more. Now obviously part of their strength flows from the same source as the Lib-Dems, and part is just NIMBYs but with trees which won't carry over to a GE. But one would think the Greens will learn and not run a left-of-labour campaign in 2024 when they have been mostly stagnant in those type of areas. Especially since Labour are going to be gaining votes even in the former Green targets at the same GE.

It's not commented on much by the media (because the media is mostly ignorant and stupid), but environmentalism appeals to a certain kind of small-c conservative voter as well as to the more predictable groups.

Yes it’s bizarre especially as the House of Windsor is the best example of this!

The Conservatives have become very detached from civic society and so have their outriders in the press and media.

Hence why they were also so slow to realise the damage they did with the farming community

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hence why they were also so slow to realise the damage they did with the farming community

Talking of which, have you seen some of the results in agricultural wards in Suffolk? Oof.

[Hnv1]

How did the SDP do? There’s was a minute there in 2019 I thought they might gain ground with working class voters.

The liberals (original) are still alive in Liverpool.

BNP got anyone in? Cornish Nats?

[Blair]

The Greens also don’t operate a whip in local councils; this led to the farcical situation in Brighton where they struggled to past their own budget.

I also suspect though that these rural councils will be mildly easier to run than the ‘city’ councils who to be blunt have to deal with a lot of difficult problems with virtually no funding.

[Blair]

A strange thing is that the coverage re labour not doing as well as expected is that they broadly won in seats that will make up their targets at the next election (with the exception of the Tees Valley)

In Plymouth for example JM has a majority of what 10K+ yet lost every ward yesterday. There were local factors here but it also applies to Swindon, Dover, Thanet etc- these are seats with very large majorities.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes it’s bizarre especially as the House of Windsor is the best example of this!

The Conservatives have become very detached from civic society and so have their outriders in the press and media.

Hence why they were also so slow to realise the damage they did with the farming community

Not too bizarre at all if you consider that the mass appeal of Conservatism has always been founded in a nostalgic wish to preserve society and tradition, maintaining calm and order, and to be left alone to live life as you yourself see fit. The maximize profits for a few wealthy Capitalists part of Conservatism is not really the driving force in support of right-wing parties except to a very small clique of people. 

Therefore I don't really find it strange at all that the same people who don't like strangers moving into the village and doing "foreign stuff", also don't like corporations moving into their village and cutting down that forest which has been there for a couple hundred years.

[JimJamUK]

The Greens also don’t operate a whip in local councils; this led to the farcical situation in Brighton where they struggled to past their own budget.

I also suspect though that these rural councils will be mildly easier to run than the ‘city’ councils who to be blunt have to deal with a lot of difficult problems with virtually no funding.

They don’t officially, but in practice they really do. For example, in the aforementioned Brighton, they expelled a councillor for voting against a motion supporting the legalisation of gay marriage. But yeah, running a district council as a Green basically means blocking development, doing localist stuff for the voters, and generally not being super incompetent.

[Oryxslayer]

How did the SDP do? There’s was a minute there in 2019 I thought they might gain ground with working class voters.

The liberals (original) are still alive in Liverpool.

BNP got anyone in? Cornish Nats?

Cornwall was not up.

Nothing for BNP or UKIP, though a good number of the indie groups in certain areas are made up of hard Leavers initially elected so many cycles ago. Reform UK technically did win 6 councilors, but those all came from the two wards in Derby. And the far right brand in those wards is far more localist and constituency focused rather than anything national, and they have been winning in these two wards for several years now.

SDP did win a councilor in Leeds. Not sure if they were just a defector from another party though.

While we are talking about small parties, the Yorkshire Party did sweep a three-member ward in the East Riding.

[Coldstream]

How did the SDP do? There’s was a minute there in 2019 I thought they might gain ground with working class voters.

The liberals (original) are still alive in Liverpool.

BNP got anyone in? Cornish Nats?

Cornwall was not up.

Nothing for BNP or UKIP, though a good number of the indie groups in certain areas are made up of hard Leavers initially elected so many cycles ago. Reform UK technically did win 6 councilors, but those all came from the two wards in Derby. And the far right brand in those wards is far more localist and constituency focused rather than anything national, and they have been winning in these two wards for several years now.

SDP did win a councilor in Leeds. Not sure if they were just a defector from another party though.

While we are talking about small parties, the Yorkshire Party did sweep a three-member ward in the East Riding.

I don’t think it is, but they’ve got a bit of organised campaigning there - they won one last year and iirc their leader ran against Hilary Benn last time.

[adma]

Yes it’s bizarre especially as the House of Windsor is the best example of this!

The Conservatives have become very detached from civic society and so have their outriders in the press and media.

Hence why they were also so slow to realise the damage they did with the farming community

Not too bizarre at all if you consider that the mass appeal of Conservatism has always been founded in a nostalgic wish to preserve society and tradition, maintaining calm and order, and to be left alone to live life as you yourself see fit. The maximize profits for a few wealthy Capitalists part of Conservatism is not really the driving force in support of right-wing parties except to a very small clique of people. 

Therefore I don't really find it strange at all that the same people who don't like strangers moving into the village and doing "foreign stuff", also don't like corporations moving into their village and cutting down that forest which has been there for a couple hundred years.

Even, when it comes to the Green/environmental impulse, the anti-"stranger" stuff is often not so much about racism or xenophobia as it is about warding off the coarse arrivistes who might do a number on the village fabric.  Maybe more like the Romney/Clinton voter than the Tory/Remain voter in that regard, i.e. Trump types as dreaded "strangers" to the Brahmin...

[Tintrlvr]

How did the SDP do? There’s was a minute there in 2019 I thought they might gain ground with working class voters.

The liberals (original) are still alive in Liverpool.

BNP got anyone in? Cornish Nats?

Cornwall was not up.

Nothing for BNP or UKIP, though a good number of the indie groups in certain areas are made up of hard Leavers initially elected so many cycles ago. Reform UK technically did win 6 councilors, but those all came from the two wards in Derby. And the far right brand in those wards is far more localist and constituency focused rather than anything national, and they have been winning in these two wards for several years now.

SDP did win a councilor in Leeds. Not sure if they were just a defector from another party though.

While we are talking about small parties, the Yorkshire Party did sweep a three-member ward in the East Riding.

I don’t think it is, but they’ve got a bit of organised campaigning there - they won one last year and iirc their leader ran against Hilary Benn last time.

Leeds is one of the places the continuing SDP had a presence even before the Brexiteer takeover so might have been from that.

[Torrain]

Something I'm not sure we've touched on - Reform UK came out of Thursday's elections with only six seats. They've been profoundly unable to capitalise on the anti-Tory mood that developed.

They only ran in 471 seats, focused in the Red Wall territory they've chosen as their focus (in areas like Hartlepool).

Alongside UKIP losing their final councillors, the hard-right had a poor night. Ironically, there's an upside for Sunak there, given the implication that Reform's 4-7% in the polls looks likely to melt away come election day.

But I imagine it's little comfort given the pincer-like encroachment from the Lib Dems into true-blue Remain-tilting territory, and Labour's recovery in more Leave-favourable regions.

[Oryxslayer]

Something I'm not sure we've touched on - Reform UK came out of Thursday's elections with only six seats. They've been profoundly unable to capitalise on the anti-Tory mood that developed.

I mentioned it above, those six are elected from 2 3-memeber wards in Derby. And those two wards are seemingly on lock via a local machine that the councilors themselves built off the normal things you do as local councilors if you actually care about your constituents. I'm sure they would be a localist group if the national brand wasn't there, since the counilors themselves have been elected under UKIP, Brexit Party, and now Reform labels.

So the overall number elected solely off the national Reform brand is 0.