2023 UK Local Elections

[icc]

The Greens also don’t operate a whip in local councils; this led to the farcical situation in Brighton where they struggled to past their own budget.

I also suspect though that these rural councils will be mildly easier to run than the ‘city’ councils who to be blunt have to deal with a lot of difficult problems with virtually no funding.

They don’t officially, but in practice they really do. For example, in the aforementioned Brighton, they expelled a councillor for voting against a motion supporting the legalisation of gay marriage. But yeah, running a district council as a Green basically means blocking development, doing localist stuff for the voters, and generally not being super incompetent.

The Lib Dem groups who claim not to have a whip do really. For Greens that isn’t generally true. For instance in Brighton during the bin strikes the then Leader was denouncing the strikers whilst his Deputy stood on the picket lines.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reform UK mostly didn't stand in these elections and those who did generally flopped, but I would still be cautious in assuming they will make zero impact in a GE and all their current poll support will just go Tory - for a start they continue to insist they will stand in nearly every GB seat next time, and one thing they do likely have is money (plus the broadcast time lots of candidates will get them)

Despite their problems, I think they *could* hurt the Tories next year if they really wanted to.

And it is quite possible they will (certainly any 2019 style deal seems totally out of the question)

[Joe Republic]

So how did Mid Suffolk happen?  I see that the Greens were already in a strong second place before (16-12-5-1), and have now doubled their seats to take 70% control!



       

[beesley]

Don't suppose I'm in anyone's thoughts but pleased at the results in Southampton as well as my former home in Windsor and Maidenhead, in many ways the latter pleases me more.

I remember you celebrating when Labour won Southampton City Council back last year. I’m amazed how Labour have converted Southampton from a marginal to a Leeds/Liverpool sized majority…

Nice to have you back on a crazy election day.

Thank you!

[Mike88]

What's happening in Redcar & Cleveland? Still no results from there.

[JimJamUK]

What's happening in Redcar & Cleveland? Still no results from there.

They’ve announced the winners, just not the actual votes. One ward remains, where the sense is that Labour has won and the Tories are refusing the concede. The final recount should be on Tuesday.

[Oryxslayer]

What's happening in Redcar & Cleveland? Still no results from there.

They’ve announced the winners, just not the actual votes. One ward remains, where the sense is that Labour has won and the Tories are refusing the concede. The final recount should be on Tuesday.

Which is because of all the coronation holidays of course. The counts in the rest of the country all unusually finished within 24 hours specifically because they knew it would be a mandated 4 day delay if they didn't.

And while we are on the topic of the Tees Valley region, it really bothered me during the coverage that everyone just said "staying in NOC, onto the next." Excluding Stockton, which is one of the few areas where local issues benefited the Conservatives, Labour basically swept right up to the point of majority. Middlesborough is Labour, Hartlepool and Darlington are have exactly 50% Labour, (and Labour could have won a majority in Hartlepool if a recount went their way) and they are going to win the most seats in Redcar any single group has won since the council became hyper-fractured post-Brexit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Stockton they gained a lot of seats off right-wing independents in wards that were historically Conservative strongholds and have also benefited from a very favourable redistribution of seats.

[JimJamUK]

In Stockton they gained a lot of seats off right-wing independents in wards that were historically Conservative strongholds and have also benefited from a very favourable redistribution of seats.

Also, there’s a 2 member ward that was Labour’s safest last time (and redrawn even safer) but flipped Conservative this time. A quick look at the names of the Conservative candidates would suggest a reason. The Conservative who topped the poll was previously a Labour candidate who was banned over a truck load of blatantly anti-Semitic social media posts.

[CumbrianLefty]

There were also town/parish council elections happening in quite a few places - and when contested on a party political basis the results have sometimes been hilariously bad for the Tories (just look at how some Hertfordshire towns have voted, for example)

Some have been in areas where there were no "principal" authority elections last week - and here too much the same applies despite the often predictable comedy turnouts. For instance the new Barrow authority went Labour 19 Tories 2 (and it was close even in the one ward Labour have *never* won)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Labour will have a lot of turf to defend when things do go south for them electorally, won't they?

[CumbrianLefty]

As was ever the case, of course.

Booby prize for client commentary on these results, so far anyway, goes to Times hack Iain Martin - whose "argument" can not unfairly be summarised as "Tories also lost 1000 seats in 1991, so it is all going to be fine". If they really believe this stuff, they are in even worse trouble than I thought.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A thought I had just now: "A Red Wave happened, it was just happened seven months late and on the opposite side of the pond".
Is this what the 1995 locals felt like?
In any case, Sunak is very fortunate that the coronation overshadowed this.

[CumbrianLefty]

No, the 1995 locals *were* even better for Labour than this and almost everybody thought after them that they would win the GE. Some still didn't expect it would be a landslide, though.

[Epaminondas]

Labour will have a lot of turf to defend when things do go south for them electorally, won't they?

What a strange take, doesn't this apply to every political wave?

Labour has until Jan 2025 to consolidate before the GE. 20 long months of graft and spin by the Tories, who will have little accountability on their way out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, there’s a 2 member ward that was Labour’s safest last time (and redrawn even safer) but flipped Conservative this time. A quick look at the names of the Conservative candidates would suggest a reason. The Conservative who topped the poll was previously a Labour candidate who was banned over a truck load of blatantly anti-Semitic social media posts.

Oh. One... issue... is that Labour groups tend to be completely blindsided by that trick when it's new to them.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour will have a lot of turf to defend when things do go south for them electorally, won't they?

What a strange take, doesn't this apply to every political wave?

Labour has until Jan 2025 to consolidate before the GE. 20 long months of graft and spin by the Tories, who will have little accountability on their way out.

Also the locals are designed to lock in unusual results with 4-year terms, sometimes in one-third classes elected each year, sometimes electing everyone all at once. A majority of the defeated councilors were last up in 2019, and the winners will next be up in 2027.

And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Labour will have a lot of turf to defend when things do go south for them electorally, won't they?

What a strange take, doesn't this apply to every political wave?

Labour has until Jan 2025 to consolidate before the GE. 20 long months of graft and spin by the Tories, who will have little accountability on their way out.

Also the locals are designed to lock in unusual results with 4-year terms, sometimes in one-third classes elected each year, sometimes electing everyone all at once. A majority of the defeated councilors were last up in 2019, and the winners will next be up in 2027.

And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

I in no way intended to give off the impression I was saying that it was bad for Labour for them to gain so many seats.
Rather, I was thinking, what is the Labour floor now? And what might ramifications from having this much territory entail for the party in the next unfavorable cycle. What, if anything, can be reasonably assumed?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't really see any causes for future alarm. The wards Labour are picking up are either recoveries from Brexit era damage, natural swing territory or areas where people had longrunning thoughts about unrealised Labour potential - Bournemouth seats come to mind. (Bear in mind, I haven't done a deep dive on wtf wards, so there are probably a handful of random seats with freak Labour results).

It will be interesting to see whether Labour can maintain its beachhead in Kent, for example, but this is not a novel issue for a political party.

[Blair]

Others have commented the Tories could easily fall into labours 2010 trap of assuming they’ll waltz back into Government.

[Epaminondas]

And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

I imagine the 2020 council cohort will fall back into its standard cycle pattern, after a 3 year mandate instead of 4?

Looking at the 2016-2021 results, despite the mini Tory ripple that year, it's slim pickings for Labour: not even a dozen targets.
Dudley, Solihull, Sheffield, Stockport, Wirral, Walsall, Northumberland, Southampton, Plymouth, Derby, Corwall... is there much hope for anything else?

Others have commented the Tories could easily fall into labours 2010 trap of assuming they’ll waltz back into Government.

Probably not symmetric though: the Tory voter base will come out regardless, while repeated Labour wins require either to cater to wealthier, older voters (like in 2001) or for fickle young voters to come out twice (which has... never happened?).

[afleitch]

The big take-away, to paraphrase Sir John Curtice, is that the electorate is prepared to pick up any stick to beat the Tories with. The Lib Dems are showing that they are a powerful force at campaigning locally with and rising with the tide. There's an electorate willing to vote tactically again.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

I imagine the 2020 council cohort will fall back into its standard cycle pattern, after a 3 year mandate instead of 4?

Looking at the 2016-2021 results, despite the mini Tory ripple that year, it's slim pickings for Labour: not even a dozen targets.
Dudley, Solihull, Sheffield, Stockport, Wirral, Walsall, Northumberland, Southampton, Plymouth, Derby, Corwall... is there much hope for anything else?

Ousting Andy Street and Ben Houchem will probably be up there as goals. Also (don't laugh) there will be the PCC elections in 2024, which will at least show a result in every single county (although Tory incumbents may be partially helped by the return to fptp and the fact that nobody cares enough about PCCs to bother tactical voting).

[Torrain]

And the next batch of councillors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

Aye - this is the one thing that gives me pause about the conventional wisdom that Sunak will wait until the autumn next year, rather than going in the spring.

Losing the ground Johnson made up, and then some, could really cement the “lame duck” narrative that Sunak’s been struggling against his entire premiership.

Median option is still probably clinging on as long as possible though.

[Хahar 🤔]

So how did Mid Suffolk happen?  I see that the Greens were already in a strong second place before (16-12-5-1), and have now doubled their seats to take 70% control!



       

The Green Party's appeal in areas like this where Labour would have no chance is often a NIMBY vote. You might be able to imagine why Green candidates would choose to emphasize the anti-development positions of the party and why voters in places like this might find that appealing. In this particular area, there's a history of Green activism going back to the '80s (maybe just because of one particular activist) and so Greens have made an effort here, which in turn has dissuaded other opposition parties from doing so. Since the Greens have established themselves as the primary opposition here, voters looking to throw out the Tories (as voters were everywhere) naturally chose Green candidates.