2023 UK Local Elections

[JimJamUK]

Assuming they are not concurrent with a general election, the Tories could have a significant recovery in the polls and nonetheless lose control of every remaining ‘swing’ council in the country next year. The all-up councils up in 2025 could have, with a decent recovery and a bit of luck, not looked awful for the Tories if they were up next year. However, a bad year (2022) and a dreadful year (2023) means that council seats that were last fought in a great year (2021) are going to see massive losses no matter what next year and leave no room for spin.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Assuming they are not concurrent with a general election, the Tories could have a significant recovery in the polls and nonetheless lose control of every remaining ‘swing’ council in the country next year. The all-up councils up in 2025 could have, with a decent recovery and a bit of luck, not looked awful for the Tories if they were up next year. However, a bad year (2022) and a dreadful year (2023) means that council seats that were last fought in a great year (2021) are going to see massive losses no matter what next year and leave no room for spin.

If they are relatively good for the Tories then Sunak could go for a June election, a la Thatcher in both 1983 and 1987. Any kind of disaster (which is more likely) would probably ensure an election in October or November.

[Blair]

It’s v weird that it’s not been mentioned that this is iirc the cycle that usually favours the Conservatives too- the shire cycle was what I think someone called it.

[adma]

It’s v weird that it’s not been mentioned that this is iirc the cycle that usually favours the Conservatives too- the shire cycle was what I think someone called it.

Maybe it could be inferred through how the Lib Dems and Greens were in some ways the bigger proxy beneficiaries than Labour was.

[YL]

West Yorkshire:



Perhaps the most notable feature of this map is in the top right hand corner, but there are others too.

(Colours are mostly obvious, but in Leeds the pinkish colour is the SDP, who won Middleton Park for the second year in a row, the lighter turquoise is the Morley Borough Independents and the darker turquoise is the Garforth & Swillington Independents.)

[MABA 2020]

Surely no one actually expects them to lose a 1000+ though?

hehehe thats good

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Surely no one actually expects them to lose a 1000+ though?

hehehe thats good

Greens doubled their total
Lib Dems and Labour saw 25% jump
Tories plunge 33%.
Funnily enough, looking at the map, I expected worse than -1000. Something like -1500...

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories *still* (as widely predicted beforehand) made significant gains from Indies/minor parties overall - that was one reason why 1000 overall losses was regarded as so unlikely.

[YL]

Sheffield maps

Winning party:


Labour:


Lib Dems:

(note the contrast between where they campaigned and where they didn't)

Greens:


Tories:


... and TUSC stood almost everywhere, so let's make a map of them too:

[Blair]

I regret to inform everyone that Lord Hague has written an article for the Times saying that these election results aren't that good a sign for Labour because he won by 8 points in 2000 and then lost the next election.

[Hnv1]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I regret to inform everyone that Lord Hague has written an article for the Times saying that these election results aren't that good a sign for Labour because he won by 8 points in 2000 and then lost the next election.

I thought he was dead

[YL]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

Local political machine associated with the party leader, Steve Radford.  The other two councillors stood using the registered description "Liberal Party - Steve Radford's Candidate".

[Hnv1]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

Local political machine associated with the party leader, Steve Radford.  The other two councillors stood using the registered description "Liberal Party - Steve Radford's Candidate".

What can three councilors offer the residence in a council dominate by a Labour super-duper majority? That's twenty plus years of domination in one particular ward in a city. perplexing

[Conservatopia]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

These people have no claim to the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Lloyd George. It's just a small rightwing personal vehicle of Steve Radford.

Neither do the Lib Dems really but that's another story.

[YL]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

These people have no claim to the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Lloyd George. It's just a small rightwing personal vehicle of Steve Radford.

Is he that right-wing?  He once stood for the European Parliament as part of a hard left slate ("No2EU").

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's best thought of as a sort of British Peronist.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11632853/Tory-councillor-gave-details-Britain-Nato-Communist-Czech-spies-Cold-War.html

New tory leader of Slough lmao

[warandwar]

The differences between the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP twitter pages are interesting. Continuity SDP is full of posts like "the only party willing to call out black on black crime" whereas the continuity Liberals had a recent post on warning signs of a stroke.

[YL]

The last result was declared earlier today: in Longbeck ward of Redcar & Cleveland, a 2 seater, Labour took one seat from the Tories and the other was held by an Independent.  The Labour winner was way ahead, with the Independent holding her seat by 4 votes from the Tory loser...

... who was Andrea Turner, the wife of the Tory PCC for Cleveland, Stephen Turner, who was also a Tory candidate in the ward and came fourth.  There has been a bit of a fuss about this.

There were several recounts, which is why the result was only declared today.  There has also been a bit of a fuss about this.

Overall Redcar & Cleveland ended up as Lab 21, Con 12, Lib Dem 11, East Cleveland Independent 1, other Independents 14.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The differences between the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP twitter pages are interesting. Continuity SDP is full of posts like "the only party willing to call out black on black crime" whereas the continuity Liberals had a recent post on warning signs of a stroke.

The Continuity SDP got taken over by a group of Post-Liberal oddballs a number of years ago, which... er... explains a lot.

[YL]

The differences between the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP twitter pages are interesting. Continuity SDP is full of posts like "the only party willing to call out black on black crime" whereas the continuity Liberals had a recent post on warning signs of a stroke.

The Continuity SDP got taken over by a group of Post-Liberal oddballs a number of years ago, which... er... explains a lot.

I think they might have been taken over again since then.  I'm not sure if I've said this on here before, but when the SDP put up a candidate last year for South Yorkshire Mayor they used the slogan "Family Industry Nation"...

[CumbrianLefty]

It has been noted that two people kicked out of Labour for AS got elected for other parties - for the Greens in Wirral and the Tories in Stockton. Politics is a cynical business alright.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I regret to inform everyone that Lord Hague has written an article for the Times saying that these election results aren't that good a sign for Labour because he won by 8 points in 2000 and then lost the next election.

I thought he was dead

Why would he be dead? He's only 62 years old, born the same year as Obama.

[Epaminondas]

It has been noted that two people kicked out of Labour for AS got elected for other parties - for the Greens in Wirral and the Tories in Stockton.

Or the charges were trumped up enough to be obvious to voters? Now that Corbyn is gone we no longer need to pussyfoot about the real target of that campaign.