NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Roll Roons]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

This was what Jackson claimed in the leaked call and the alternative explanation for his non-candidacy. The 'unified basement strategy' is probably dead in the water now.

I wonder who else might decide to unpause their political career if they objected to following that approach in previous electoral cycles.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The First Redditor Senator,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D with Jeff Jackson

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

No, Jackson wanted to do only minimal fundraising and almost completely cede the airwaves to Tillis.  Schumer rightly decided that it would be a bad idea to nominate a candidate who planned to 1) do as little fundraising as possible and 2) not to bother running attack ads against Tillis.  Schumer initially tried to recruit a bunch of other candidates like Anthony Foxx, Roy Cooper, Josh Stein, Janet Cowell, etc, etc but none of them were interested for a variety of reasons.  

Eventually, Schumer went with Cunningham (who was basically the only viable non-Jackson candidate left since unelectable DINO Erica Smith was obviously a non-starter) and Cunningham was well on his way to winning before getting torpedoed by an unforeseeable scandal.  And even then, Cunningham only lost by the skin of his teeth which suggests that - ironically enough - Schumer actually did have the right idea about this race re: strategy and that Cunningham probably would've won but for the late-breaking scandal (which he handled horribly btw).  

[Meatball Ron]

I hope Rev. Barber runs and wins the primary - I think he has the best chance of flipping this seat. The Jackson template has repeatedly tried and failed, so I think it's time to try something new. But Erica Smith is also an incredibly weak candidate. We see from the GA runoffs that southern voters are receptive to black religious leaders; it would be good for both black turnout and winning a high enough chunk of the limited swing voter pool.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The First Redditor Senator,

I would be VERY surprised if Jon Ossoff doesn't have a reddit account.

[Barack Oganja]

The only thing I'm confident saying is that assuming Reverend Barber = Reverend Warnock and Jeff Jackson = Cal Cunningham is lazy analysis. Different people in different states in different national environments against different candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Rev. Barber runs and wins the primary - I think he has the best chance of flipping this seat. The Jackson template has repeatedly tried and failed, so I think it's time to try something new. But Erica Smith is also an incredibly weak candidate. We see from the GA runoffs that southern voters are receptive to black religious leaders; it would be good for both black turnout and winning a high enough chunk of the limited swing voter pool.

Lol Jeff Jackson is gonna win the primary, and Tim Ryan is gonna run for Senate in OH, I doubt the other candidates win, Warnock was a special case, Stacy Abrams and Obama endorsed him


Tim Ryan is gonna run due to fact the R gerrymandering of OH

Portman gave away his seat to Tim Ryan, if in fact he runs which it looks inevitable

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think people are greatly overestimating Democratic chances of winning this seat.

[coloradocowboi]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.

Apparently it was because they disagreed about campaign strategy. Jackson wanted to run a grassroots campaign and hold town halls all over the state, but Schumer wanted the candidate to be locked in a windowless basement and make fundraising calls all day.

No, Jackson wanted to do only minimal fundraising and almost completely cede the airwaves to Tillis.  Schumer rightly decided that it would be a bad idea to nominate a candidate who planned to 1) do as little fundraising as possible and 2) not to bother running attack ads against Tillis.  Schumer initially tried to recruit a bunch of other candidates like Anthony Foxx, Roy Cooper, Josh Stein, Janet Cowell, etc, etc but none of them were interested for a variety of reasons.  

Eventually, Schumer went with Cunningham (who was basically the only viable non-Jackson candidate left since unelectable DINO Erica Smith was obviously a non-starter) and Cunningham was well on his way to winning before getting torpedoed by an unforeseeable scandal.  And even then, Cunningham only lost by the skin of his teeth which suggests that - ironically enough - Schumer actually did have the right idea about this race re: strategy and that Cunningham probably would've won but for the late-breaking scandal (which he handled horribly btw).  

Uhhh are you simping for Chuck Schumer and the DSCC right now? This reads like a parody. Cunningham was a standard polling error away from disaster either way, had absolutely no personality to speak of, no experience, almost no position on any issue, and was objectively a terrible pick and that's without the scandal that was obviously not unforeseeable because his own penile decisions yielded it lol!

The only thing I'm confident saying is that assuming Reverend Barber = Reverend Warnock and Jeff Jackson = Cal Cunningham is lazy analysis. Different people in different states in different national environments against different candidates.

I'm a huge Barber fan, and he would actually make a better Senator than Warnock. But yeah... North Carolina is a lot more white (read: racist) and Barber is a lot more leftist than Warnock. I think he would probably lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win NC with Jeff Jackson

[Meatball Ron]

I hope Rev. Barber runs and wins the primary - I think he has the best chance of flipping this seat. The Jackson template has repeatedly tried and failed, so I think it's time to try something new. But Erica Smith is also an incredibly weak candidate. We see from the GA runoffs that southern voters are receptive to black religious leaders; it would be good for both black turnout and winning a high enough chunk of the limited swing voter pool.

Lol Jeff Jackson is gonna win the primary, and Tim Ryan is gonna run for Senate in OH, I doubt the other candidates win, Warnock was a special case, Stacy Abrams and Obama endorsed him


Tim Ryan is gonna run due to fact the R gerrymandering of OH

Portman gave away his seat to Tim Ryan, if in fact he runs which it looks inevitable

*What does Tim Ryan have to do with this discussion of NC?
*What makes Warnock a "special case"? Why wouldn't Obama and Abrams endorse the Democratic candidate in NC as well?
*Why do you think Tim Ryan has such a strong general election advantage in this Trump +8 state?

I don't post here much so I may be out of the loop / violating consensus norms by responding to you, but you aren't making any sort of coherent sense at all.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I love Jeff Jackson. I met him (virtually) this year doing some voter reg stuff in Charlotte. He is not Cal Cunningham. I support and will be making monthly contributions.

ETA: I meant last year, still thinking it’s 2020.

[GALeftist]

You know, I like Jeff Jackson as much as the next guy, and I really hope I'm missing something, but looking at the numbers I'm just not really seeing how a win is super feasible here. I mean, it looks like NC's trend has slowed to a snail's pace, and Jackson is going to have to improve on Biden's margin by at least a point or so in a midterm environment. That's certainly not impossible, and it's a damn sight more likely than Ohio or Iowa, but unless something big happens I just don't see how Republicans aren't the very clear favorites.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People that are so afraid of a Biden Midterm, it's ridiculous and we now have Biden that isn't Trump that has a 52 Percent approved rating not 40 percent Trump.


D's should be glad we have Jeff Jackson, Fetterman and possibly Tim Ryan running instead of naysay

These are Rs retiring not D's just like in 2018 in the House, they retired

[Nutmeg]

People that are so afraid of a Biden Midterm, it's ridiculous and we now have Biden that isn't Trump that has a 52 Percent approved rating not 40 percent Trump.


D's should be glad we have Jeff Jackson, Fetterman and possibly Tim Ryan running instead of naysay

These are Rs retiring not D's just like in 2018 in the House, they retired

I hate to say it, but I agree with all of this.

[Tiger08]

I know this is a meme worthy question but I am legitimately wondering: would Smith's supposed Tulsi-esque DINO status help her get a surprisingly strong showing among #populist rural white voters?

[Sol]

You know, I like Jeff Jackson as much as the next guy, and I really hope I'm missing something, but looking at the numbers I'm just not really seeing how a win is super feasible here. I mean, it looks like NC's trend has slowed to a snail's pace, and Jackson is going to have to improve on Biden's margin by at least a point or so in a midterm environment. That's certainly not impossible, and it's a damn sight more likely than Ohio or Iowa, but unless something big happens I just don't see how Republicans aren't the very clear favorites.

The case for Jeff Jackson imo is that he's sort of cut in the mold of Beto O'Rourke 2018, as you can see from his desire to aggressively canvass all over the state. He's a strong public speaker and fairly communications-savvy--he built up a ton of name recognition across the state during the pandemic by releasing and aggressively publicizing* press releases, and he's been doing similar things for years.

That doesn't mean he'd win, but there's a decent case that he could overperform the usual Democratic ceilings in the state.

*And I mean aggressive--he's a regular poster in basically every NC local subreddit.

[Sol]

I know this is a meme worthy question but I am legitimately wondering: would Smith's supposed Tulsi-esque DINO status help her get a surprisingly strong showing among #populist rural white voters?

Erica Smith's "DINO status"--which I think is an inaccurate label-- is more based on her poor relationship with Democratic party, both national and statewide.

I suspect Smith was personally offended by the Schumer-induced coronation of Cal Cunningham, a relative no-name who had been out of office for years and who had basically equivalent experience to her. It's fairly obvious IMO that the DSCC went with Cunningham over her because of her race, since the two were basically identical in every other respect.

With regards to the statewide Democratic party, Smith has been repeatedly harassed and threatened by other members of the Senate Democratic caucus, and it seems like that's fostered bad blood, very understandably.

On a personal note, I met Smith when I was doing some lobbying for fair districting in the General Assembly, and she was incredibly friendly, noticeably more so than most other legislators. I'm not the world's biggest fan of her or anything--I don't think she's a great campaigner, and her weird attempt to ratf[inks] Jeff Jackson last fall I think shows that--but she seems to be sincerely left-wing and I sympathize a lot with her, since she's gotten a raw deal in quite a few ways. When she loses this primary (and she will, Jeff Jackson will probably win by more than Cunningham), I hope she's able to run for Butterfield's seat when he retires.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I know this is a meme worthy question but I am legitimately wondering: would Smith's supposed Tulsi-esque DINO status help her get a surprisingly strong showing among #populist rural white voters?

No, those are the trumpiest voters and would be very skeptical of a democrat, much less a black woman. Being a social conservative didn’t help Robert Williams in SC-7

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1354822447804125185

Jackson has already raised $500K. So much for the windowless basement strategy.

[Gracile]

It's a shame Jackson's 2020 run never materialized (though beating Tillis was hardly guaranteed given how NC voted and the state's overall Republican lean); he's going to have an uphill battle next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am all in for Tim Ryan, Fetterman, Jeff Jackson, Tom Nelson and Warnock

Cook and Sabato ratings are meaningless until Oct 2022

Biden has a 52 Percent approvals not 40 percent Trump

[Roll Roons]

It's a shame Jackson's 2020 run never materialized (though beating Tillis was hardly guaranteed given how NC voted and the state's overall Republican lean); he's going to have an uphill battle next year.

I think he would have won in 2020. He reminds me of Kander or 2018 Beto, but in a much less red state than Missouri or Texas. Biden got nearly 20000 more votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory, so I think he could have easily made up that gap.