UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of towns along the South Coast have slowly shifted in that general direction.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aye - definitely one to watch, even with a majority as large as the Tories got in 2019.

Labour overtook the Tories on the North West Leicestershire District Council last week, and denied the Conservatives overall control for the first time since 2007, so there’s definitely a shift of sorts going on.

Although they still came 2nd in vote share (it’s one of a number of places where Labour can have a more efficient vote distribution these days, owing to post-industrial small towns being able to vote modestly Labour (but usually not overwhelmingly) while the wealthy small villages are still Tory bankers). Regardless, it’s definitely the sort of place that had an outsized number of voters who are willing to switch to Labour if the Tories are really pissing them off.

Given the 2019 result, it is still incredible that we are even tentatively doubting its safeness (and that of similar seats in the area) at all. What on earth was that election all about, in retrospect?

[WD]

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1656596564163395584?s=46

[JimJamUK]

What constituencies have gone in the other direction (more working-class with areas of comfort)? I'm thinking quite a few in the Merseyside area.

That’s quite a difficult question to answer tbh. It’s easier to notice places that were traditionally industrial but now are objectively quite affluent, especially where there’s been a bit of housebuilding. I’d suggest Blackpool which is a lot more deprived than it was long ago (as already alluded to, a lot of seaside towns have gone downhill in recent decades while sporting a few nice retirement areas). Quite a lot of the remaining social housing dominated communities have developed significant social problems as social housing moved from being a working class thing to being something increasingly only accessible to the most desperate (but given the diversity of UK constituencies, they are often paired with some traditionally affluent suburbs or the gentrifying inner city).

[Torrain]

Are any of you guys following the Teesworks thing in Teeside? Private Eye have been reporting on some potentially-underhanded dealings by the metro mayor, Ben Houchen for a while now.

There was a rather loaded question, seemingly about the project, at PMQs this week. It was asked in the same, vaguely conspiratorial way that the famous question about parties (that got Johnson hauled in front of the Privileges Committee), was asked.

I’m not able to really source this - because it’s a mess of twitter threads, blurry photos of Private Eye articles etc. The author is the Eye’s Richard Brooks, who’s social media can be found here.

Houchen and Simon Clarke (who approved a bunch of Freeports as Truss’ Levelling Up Sec) have spent a lot of time getting into fights on social media about it - and are veering towards “Streisand effect” territory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have my opinion on Mr Houchen but I'm not going to publish it on a public forum on which I'm only semi-anonymous at best.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

A description that could apply to quite a few constituencies these days.

What constituencies have gone in the other direction (more working-class with areas of comfort)? I'm thinking quite a few in the Merseyside area.

That's not really what's driven the change in Merseyside - to the extent they got more working class, it happened decades ago with slum clearances and relocations. It's more that the comfortable middle class elements of those seats have become increasingly favourable towards Labour* and that the remaining working-class support the Tories had on the outskirts of Merseyside has gone the same way that their working-class support in Liverpool did a generation before.

*Partly because there are high levels of public sector employment there, partly because the areas are more likely to regard themselves as part of Merseyside now than they were a generation ago and hence to be repelled by the Tories' poorly hidden distaste for Merseyside.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/podcast/76
TIL the private eye had a podcast.

[Alcibiades]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

A description that could apply to quite a few constituencies these days.

What constituencies have gone in the other direction (more working-class with areas of comfort)? I'm thinking quite a few in the Merseyside area.

An interesting example of this from London is Streatham, which even maybe 40 years ago was still a largely upper middle class residential area, but then became a lot more deprived. Like almost everywhere in that part of inner South London, it’s probably gentrified quite a bit in recent years, but that’s presumably been largely driven by young professionals and the like rather than too many middle class families coming back. Fascinatingly, neighbouring Balham took the opposite path: it used to be quite working class, whereas today it’s a highly desirable residential area.

[Alcibiades]

Thought of another London example. Mitcham and Morden used to be humdrum lower middle class suburbia (which is still the case in part of the western, Morden end of the constituency), but much of Mitcham especially is now among the most deprived parts of London. It remains very unfashionable and un-gentrified. I think some of the factors at play there included ‘refugees’ from Wandsworth council’s, um, dubious housing policies, to put it mildly, and a large community of Ghanaian immigrants settling there.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Thought of another London example. Mitcham and Morden used to be humdrum lower middle class suburbia (which is still the case in part of the western, Morden end of the constituency), but much of Mitcham especially is now among the most deprived parts of London. It remains very unfashionable and un-gentrified. I think some of the factors at play there included ‘refugees’ from Wandsworth council’s, um, dubious housing policies, to put it mildly, and a large community of Ghanaian immigrants settling there.

What are those policies ?

[Alcibiades]

Thought of another London example. Mitcham and Morden used to be humdrum lower middle class suburbia (which is still the case in part of the western, Morden end of the constituency), but much of Mitcham especially is now among the most deprived parts of London. It remains very unfashionable and un-gentrified. I think some of the factors at play there included ‘refugees’ from Wandsworth council’s, um, dubious housing policies, to put it mildly, and a large community of Ghanaian immigrants settling there.

What are those policies ?

I’m not too sure on the precise details, but as I understand it essentially forcing lots of poor social renters out of council homes in the 80s (with the help of right to buy, maybe).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I’m not too sure on the precise details, but as I understand it essentially forcing lots of poor social renters out of council homes in the 80s (with the help of right to buy, maybe).

'Social Cleansing', yes. They did the same as Westminster Council did at the same time, but with a bit more care about the legalities. The area changed the most by this was Battersea, which was an extremely working class district as late as the early 1980s. The existing Battersea constituency is essentially an expanded Battersea North, which used to be Labour's safest seat in the capital outside the East End and the dockland constituencies. The old Battersea South constituency, which was a Labour-leaning marginal, would probably have been a Conservative hold in 2019 despite the Brexit-fueled swing against the grain across the borough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thought of another London example. Mitcham and Morden used to be humdrum lower middle class suburbia (which is still the case in part of the western, Morden end of the constituency), but much of Mitcham especially is now among the most deprived parts of London. It remains very unfashionable and un-gentrified. I think some of the factors at play there included ‘refugees’ from Wandsworth council’s, um, dubious housing policies, to put it mildly, and a large community of Ghanaian immigrants settling there.

Ilford is another area that has seen similar changes. Two of its most notable residents (Wes Streeting and the late Bob Crow) were both born in Stepney, which is a bit of a tell.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Didn't Bob Crow live in Chingford? That said, it's going the same way so I guess he was just a first-wave gentrifier.

[Zinneke]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures? So in essence he couldn't be gentrifying the place up by virtue of not actually paying more rent (and not liking Costa Coffee)? 

I may be confusing him with the myriad of Belgian politicians and union executives though, who do think it's suitable to pay 70 euros rent a month whilst having 5 jobs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

[Zinneke]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

Well, he wasn't a gentrifier, just a hypocrite then, because it still means social housing isn't being allocated according to those who actually need it.

[Torrain]

Spate of Friday polling starting to drop - showing the gap widening, after several weeks of tightening:

• TechneUK - Lab lead of 17%
• Savanta - Lab lead of 16%
• Omnisis - Lab lead of 27%

No idea what's going on with that Omnisis outlier, who have Labour on 51%. Maybe they've changed their methodology, and now show participants a photo of Liz Truss before asking their voting intention?

In contrast, Redfield and Wilton ran a Westminster VI poll on the 7th, showing Labour's lead down to 12% (41-29%), with the Lib Dems on 16%.

We might just still be in post-locals territory, with the elections influencing the polls. But the Sunak Recovery^TM narrative seems a little incongruous now, when the polls are combined with last Thursday's results.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

Well, he wasn't a gentrifier, just a hypocrite then, because it still means social housing isn't being allocated to those who actually need it.

But.......is that what "social housing" should be about, or at least *just* that?

Certainly in the UK, when council housing was built in large amounts post-war it wasn't just the poor who lived there. Letting them become ghettoes arguably isn't the best thing.

The solution is not to evict people like Bob Crow, it is to build more!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Council housing was originally built in Britain for people at the upper range of working class incomes, and this was then extended for general needs after the Second World War. The shift towards it being housing for the poor was a long and complicated one linked to slum clearance programmes and heavy subsidies for high-rise developments (a key figure there was Keith Joseph who knew what he was doing) and wasn't completed until the early 1980s.

[Zinneke]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

Well, he wasn't a gentrifier, just a hypocrite then, because it still means social housing isn't being allocated to those who actually need it.

But.......is that what "social housing" should be about, or at least *just* that?

Certainly in the UK, when council housing was built in large amounts post-war it wasn't just the poor who lived there. Letting them become ghettoes arguably isn't the best thing.

The solution is not to evict people like Bob Crow, it is to build more!

In any other city than London I'd concede to you that I wouldn't want to outright evict him of he considers it his home. But in this case it's just rank hypocrisy.

[Tintrlvr]

Did Bob Crow not occupy social housing despite being paid 6 figures?

Yes, and my personal (and not universally popular) opinion is that there is nothing wrong with that.

Well, he wasn't a gentrifier, just a hypocrite then, because it still means social housing isn't being allocated to those who actually need it.

But.......is that what "social housing" should be about, or at least *just* that?

Certainly in the UK, when council housing was built in large amounts post-war it wasn't just the poor who lived there. Letting them become ghettoes arguably isn't the best thing.

The solution is not to evict people like Bob Crow, it is to build more!

In any other city than London I'd concede to you that I wouldn't want to outright evict him of he considers it his home. But in this case it's just rank hypocrisy.

How are social housing rents determined? Here in NYC, public housing is usually charged as a percentage of income, so while there are some people making six figures living in public housing and no rules against it (assuming they qualified when they moved in), they pay what are often pretty close to market rents, which in a small way (there are few such people) does help to subsidize the rest of the system.

[Estrella]

Council housing was originally built in Britain for people at the upper range of working class incomes, and this was then extended for general needs after the Second World War. The shift towards it being housing for the poor was a long and complicated one linked to slum clearance programmes and heavy subsidies for high-rise developments (a key figure there was Keith Joseph who knew what he was doing) and wasn't completed until the early 1980s.

What was Labour's position on the bolded? Because for all the stereotypes about how radical Old Labour was, it seems like they cared mostly about their unionized worker base and viewed the poor poor with contempt at best. Granted, it looks like this sort of went away after WW2, but didn't a lot of pre-war Labour figures agree with the Victorian "muh idleness"?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Council housing was originally built in Britain for people at the upper range of working class incomes, and this was then extended for general needs after the Second World War. The shift towards it being housing for the poor was a long and complicated one linked to slum clearance programmes and heavy subsidies for high-rise developments (a key figure there was Keith Joseph who knew what he was doing) and wasn't completed until the early 1980s.

What was Labour's position on the bolded? Because for all the stereotypes about how radical Old Labour was, it seems like they cared mostly about their unionized worker base and viewed the poor poor with contempt at best. Granted, it looks like this sort of went away after WW2, but didn't a lot of pre-war Labour figures agree with the Victorian "muh idleness"?

So, the first attempt to provide central government subsidies for council houses (without which large scale building of them was never possible) was the brainchild of Christopher Addison, who was a radical Liberal who later joined the Labour Party. This was all gutted and destroyed almost immediate by the austerity policies known as the 'Geddes Axe'. The second (and this time successful) attempt came a few years later and was underpinned by two pieces of legislation, the first (1924) was written by John Wheatley and the second (1930) by Arthur Greenwood. Both were Labour ministers.