2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Kalimantan]

Can someone recommend the best strategy for an election watcher in the UK, five hours ahead of Eastern? When will the main action happen and when will the path be set?

Have options of staying up as late at possible, which means IN and KY will close and be called at midnight, but I'm not going to make it much past 11pm Eastern ; or getting some sleep in early and rising at say 9 or 10pm Eastern, but would I have missed much of the fun by then?

[Kalimantan]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323534663453913093?s=21

Ha, that's probably the most fun thing Trump has posted in four years! Why couldn't he have governed with a smile on his face and attempt to love his fellow citizens rather than being the aggressive, confrontational man that we've seen.

I very briefly was cautiously optimistic about Trump's presidency when he began, his campaign through the primaries was individualistic, he didn't fall back on republican talking points, defended his beliefs which were quite moderate in many cases compared to his opponents and spoke to the people rather than to GOP interests.

He could have tried to govern as the outsider he claimed to be, to shake things up, yet he has governed as a hard-line Conservative whilst being a quintessional insider, working to enrich and entrench the monied elite as far as possible. He has driven division and hatred as he seeks revenge on his critics at every turn.

It does feel like an opportunity missed, but his abrasive and thin-skinned personality has trumped everything else. Four more years of that doesn't bear thinking about.

But I do like a ridiculous dancing video to an old disco classic, hats off to him for that

[Kalimantan]

No more results from NV until 11am EST Thursday.

This is unacceptable. There's no excuse to just not keep counting when sh**t is on the line like this.

Quite. But at least Biden has a narrow lead before the pause. If Trump was a 1000 votes up, even knowing that outstanding vote favoured Biden, there would all kinds of litigation. This way round can sleep easier

[Kalimantan]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

Well I suppose that just like everywhere we're focused on, states like SC also have a sizeable VBM vote to count which will tighten the margins

[Kalimantan]

Take the lead in MI and hold it in WI and he will be leading in enough places to be in front if/when the Republicans try and get the count suspended in the courts. Probably all that matters right now.

[Kalimantan]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

A Republican Senate may actually help Biden govern in a more moderate way and enact sane Democratic policies supported by the majority of the people.

Why, where's McConnell going?

[Kalimantan]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1324086185266917376?s=19

So that tells us they think PA is gone for Trump. Feeling more confident now.

When they want 'meaningful access', what does that mean under law?

[Kalimantan]

If that update was the Fulton absentees, Trump wins.  If the Fulton absentees are still out, Biden wins.  

If I understood the Fulton press conference a minute ago, those votes weren't the Fulton absentee ballots — or certainly not all of them. Fulton just said to expect their result around midnight.

They were from Fulton but there still quite a bit left there

[Kalimantan]

So is anyone counting overnight or nothing new will be dropped for several hours?

[Kalimantan]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

It will be tight. Clayton County in Atlanta metro could be the clincher. Currently 85% Biden with over 85,000 ballots in his column and only 84% reported. Only two much smaller Trump counties have a higher remaining % of votes

[Kalimantan]

10.5K vote dump in PA. Not sure where it was from, but it was Biden 8.6K, Trump 1.8K. Biden 82-18.

Trump's margin narrows from 142K to 135K.

Bucks. Turned the county blue. If he's getting these early vote margins from a competitive county like Bucks, then has to look good across the board

[Kalimantan]

https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1324345726613229568?s=19

He's sending the army in to seize every uncounted vote!

[Kalimantan]

I think a defeated President like Trump should immediately lose access to the nuclear codes in such a situation.

He could run amok if GA or PA hand Biden the presidency soon ...

This is basically the biggest difference between UK and US elections. Our government is dissolved before the election and the winning party take over as soon as the result is known, usually the very next morning. Its clean and simple and prevents these lane stuck shenanigans. I'm sure it's the same in austria

[Kalimantan]

Poor Fox News.

Fox might come up with some BS excuse like "we won't call the whole race because of the legal challenges"

Yeah, 'we're calling Nevada, and we're not un-calling AZ, but we're not calling the election just yet......'

[Kalimantan]

This whole thread is just incredible...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324445099430940673?s=20

DMP was in tears during the call.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1324445867663908870?s=20

I'm not sure about generally blaming the "liberal wing" of the party, but you have to admit their branding is God-awful. Progressives talk about how popular their ideas are, but progressives are often the ones that come up with these awful catchphrases. "Defund the police" is a guaranteed vote-loser, even if police reform is popular. Calling themselves "Democratic socialists" is a vote-loser, even if progressivism can be popular. I don't even understand that one, seeing as how they are social democrats at their leftmost.

Conservatives know how to dress up an unpopular idea and make it sound good. For some reason, Liberals and Leftists seem to want to take popular ideas and make them sound bad.

I heard Trump, GOP saying the Dems want to 'defund the police' a lot, can't say I recall an elected dem saying it. It was a phrase used to beat them with and they struggled to get that messaging back.

Is not why the Dems did less well than 2018 though. The 2018 wave was on the back of a protest vote against Trump. In 2020 people could protest Trump by voting against him directly, so down ballot they could be kinder to the GOP.

Anyway there is a saying, all politics is local. In tough seats you've got to get the faith of your electorate.

[Kalimantan]

https://twitter.com/Joeh_37/status/1324501304627122178?s=20

As a huge Trekkie, I love this.

But "normal Republicans?"  Do those exist anymore?

Um, yeah?

Why would someone making 1 Mil a year vote for Biden when he made it clear he would tax them much more, especially if the other Rep. candidate is respectable.

'normal' republicans earn 1 Mil a year? OK

[Kalimantan]

Well that was one of the least presidential things I have ever seen. Rambling collection of conspiracy theory greatest hits. Such an unhappy man, I wonder if he's ever been happy?

[Kalimantan]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

Interesting theory, let's see:
Arizona is heavily Phoenix and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Colorado is somewhat heavily Denver and suburbs. Went Democratic.
Delware is heavily New Castle County. Went Democratic
Georgia is heavily Atlanta and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Illinois is heavily Chicago and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Massachusetts is somewhat heavily Boston and suburbs. Went Democratic
Michigan is somewhat heavily Detroit and suburbs. Went Democratic
Minnesota is heavily Minneapolis/St Paul and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Nevada is heavily Las Vegas and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
New York is heavily New York City (and suburbs) Went Democratic (though the suburbs on Long Island seem to be offside.)
Oregon is heavily Portland and suburbs. Went Democratic
Pennsylvania is increasingly Philadelphia and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
Washington is heavily Seattle and suburbs. Went Democratic

You may be on to something here.

Oklahoma? Alaska? Nebraska? Kentucky? South Dakota? All have a greater % of pop in their largest city than Georgia (or MA, MI, DE for that matter)

Order is 1. New York, 2. Alaska 3. New Mexico, followed by IL, NV, AZ, NE, then something like SD, OR, OK, RI, KY

[Kalimantan]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

Interesting theory, let's see:
Arizona is heavily Phoenix and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Colorado is somewhat heavily Denver and suburbs. Went Democratic.
Delware is heavily New Castle County. Went Democratic
Georgia is heavily Atlanta and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Illinois is heavily Chicago and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Massachusetts is somewhat heavily Boston and suburbs. Went Democratic
Michigan is somewhat heavily Detroit and suburbs. Went Democratic
Minnesota is heavily Minneapolis/St Paul and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Nevada is heavily Las Vegas and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
New York is heavily New York City (and suburbs) Went Democratic (though the suburbs on Long Island seem to be offside.)
Oregon is heavily Portland and suburbs. Went Democratic
Pennsylvania is increasingly Philadelphia and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
Washington is heavily Seattle and suburbs. Went Democratic

You may be on to something here.

Oklahoma? Alaska? Nebraska? Kentucky? South Dakota? All have a greater % of pop in their largest city than Georgia (or MA, MI, DE for that matter)

Order is 1. New York, 2. Alaska 3. New Mexico, followed by IL, NV, AZ, NE, then something like SD, OR, OK, RI, KY

Fair point with Anchorage and suburbs, but as for the rest of your point, how could you not notice the analysis is based on the metro areas, the major city AND its suburbs?  I did after all write "and its suburbs" every time.

Go back and look at all those other states based on metro areas as a percentage of population.  Louisville and its suburbs are approximately 1/6 of the population of Kentucky.  Omaha and it's suburbs are slightly over 1/3 the population of Nebraska.  Oklahoma City and its suburbs are about 1/5 the population of Oklahoma.

In all the states I mentioned, its major metro area comprises at least close to half the population of the state. (I think it's over 50% in all cases but Philadelphia and maybe Detroit.)

Its OK, I'm not here for a row absolutely know what you mean about metro areas and I couldn't find that data, just biggest city data - hence even though Minnesota doesn't show up on biggest city stats it certainly will on metros. And yeah, I never quite realised how massive that atlanta metro area is. It actually makes you wonder how its taken the Dems so long to be competitive in the state.

Louisiana was actually the first state that came up as a counter to your point, 1.3m people in a state of 4.5, about a third so I guess not. But Oklahoma could be fairly sure that if the Dems could dominate the city they would win the state. Wikipedia has Oklahoma -Shawnee metro at 1.5m people in state of 3.9m, so way more than a 1/5, so pull a Philly or San Francisco there and Tulsa will get you over the line. (obviously that just theoretical)

For Atlanta, official metro pop is 6m, but a lot of that is quite rural, wiki defined the urban metro-Atlanta pop as 4.5m, similar proportion of the states pop as OKC (but obvs some of OKC-Shawnee is small towns too). Anyway interesting to look at.

*edit - oh look we just won while I was typing that*

Good days

[Kalimantan]

While I get why AP wont call PA, I'm not sure why everyone else wont.

I believe a recount can be requested if lead under 35k or so, guess they're waiting for that to pass

[Kalimantan]

Susan Collins would, unironically, be a fairly good and qualified Transportation secretary in a Biden administration.

She's become such a hated figure to Democrats that Biden would never dare select her for his cabinet. The way partisan Democrats talk about her, one would guess she's about on par with Graham or McConnell himself.

I can't stand her either, but if every Republican was more like Collins the Party would be much much different.

I agree with this, and am personally no fan of Collins, though I think Democrats would accept her in a relatively low-profile cabinet role in exchange for a Dem governor appointing her replacement.

She wouldn't take it though would she? Just won a tough reelection bid and is now 6th in republican seniority in the senate, at least 10 years younger than the five ahead of her.

[Kalimantan]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

[Kalimantan]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

But California HAS dictated who is president. If California had voted for Trump then he would be President.

It is the only state in the nation that has decided the result, flip any other state and Biden still wins, but California alone would change the outcome.

So?

So don't make the argument that the electoral college should stay because otherwise California would decide the election. Find a different argument instead.

[Kalimantan]

Florida is crying in the corner about not joining the party

For the first time since 1992 (when Perot got 20% in Florida), which was the first time since 1960, which was the first time since 1924. Florida has backed the winner the other 21 elections in this time

[Kalimantan]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

94k provisionals and only from 20k from Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawanna/Monroe/Lehigh?

That just doesn't seem likely at all. Over 50% of the total state vote has come from those counties (~3.5m)