2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 642375 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #9225 on: November 05, 2020, 04:44:24 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:42:38 AM
Quote from: Tarrin Kael on November 05, 2020, 04:39:04 AM
How likely are we to hold Perdue to below 50% at this point?
Is it at all likely Biden wins GA at this point?

Do we know really what is left ?

It seems all mail ballots have been counted in the state.

Maybe some provisional ballots ?

Late arriving ballots such as overseas military ?
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #9226 on: November 05, 2020, 04:46:28 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 04:44:24 AM
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:42:38 AM
Quote from: Tarrin Kael on November 05, 2020, 04:39:04 AM
How likely are we to hold Perdue to below 50% at this point?
Is it at all likely Biden wins GA at this point?

Do we know really what is left ?

It seems all mail ballots have been counted in the state.

Maybe some provisional ballots ?

Late arriving ballots such as overseas military ?


I’m not sure Sad

It just feels like Georgia is slipping.  Arizona keeps slipping.  Nevada is too close.  Pennsylvania may not come through.  I think people celebrated too early.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #9227 on: November 05, 2020, 04:48:03 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:36:33 AM
I need reassurance.

The longer this stretches out the more it seems like Trump will win.

Are we going to win Georgia?
Are we going to win PA?
Georgia - 50/50 odds (cautious), maybe better?
Pennsylvania - probably yes, you'll have a better idea in 6 to 12 hours

by the way
Arizona - very likely, we'll know in the next 18 hours
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9228 on: November 05, 2020, 04:48:50 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:46:28 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 04:44:24 AM
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:42:38 AM
Quote from: Tarrin Kael on November 05, 2020, 04:39:04 AM
How likely are we to hold Perdue to below 50% at this point?
Is it at all likely Biden wins GA at this point?

Do we know really what is left ?

It seems all mail ballots have been counted in the state.

Maybe some provisional ballots ?

Late arriving ballots such as overseas military ?


I’m not sure Sad

It just feels like Georgia is slipping.  Arizona keeps slipping.  Nevada is too close.  Pennsylvania may not come through.  I think people celebrated too early.

You are too pessimistic.

It's true that GA is really close and might end up for Trump.

The same with AZ, because there are 400.000-600.000 ballots left, among them many election-day votes which skew Trump.

But NV looks better, it seems mostly mail ballots left there, but I have no clue really (Ralston said so).

And PA is looking pretty good for Biden. He will likely pull slightly ahead of Trump at the end of today.
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T'Chenka
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« Reply #9229 on: November 05, 2020, 04:50:06 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:46:28 AM
Arizona keeps slipping.  Nevada is too close.
Trump's ONLY chance to win Arizona now is to dominate the remaining Maricopa County votes. All other counties not at 100% yet favour Biden.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #9230 on: November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM »
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9231 on: November 05, 2020, 04:57:47 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Sounds a little early to me.

It's only over when Biden pulls ahead in PA (maybe late in the evening today, or tomorrow).

Anyway, I also made some awesome bets on WilliamHill.

If GA ends up Trump and Trump gets 240-268 EV, or GA/Biden and AZ/NV Trump, then I'll cash in 1.000€ on various bets !

I might have to wait a little longer for my money, because I guess they will only pay out the money if the AP has declared all 538 EV or those votes are cast in December ...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #9232 on: November 05, 2020, 04:59:20 AM »
Okay, that's it. Sportsbet.com.au called the election. It's over, folks.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #9233 on: November 05, 2020, 05:00:25 AM »
So is anyone counting overnight or nothing new will be dropped for several hours?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9234 on: November 05, 2020, 05:00:55 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Or did you bet on winner of the popular vote only, not the Presidency ?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9235 on: November 05, 2020, 05:01:38 AM »
Just woke up... what’s the latest on AZ/PA (I guess I’ll bite and ask about GA too)
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ObamaMichael
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« Reply #9236 on: November 05, 2020, 05:02:32 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 05, 2020, 05:01:38 AM
Just woke up... what’s the latest on AZ/PA (I guess I’ll bite and ask about GA too)

We practically know nothing
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9237 on: November 05, 2020, 05:06:07 AM »
Quote from: ObamaMichael on November 05, 2020, 05:02:32 AM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 05, 2020, 05:01:38 AM
Just woke up... what’s the latest on AZ/PA (I guess I’ll bite and ask about GA too)

We practically know nothing

Sounds reassuring

Jesus Christ
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #9238 on: November 05, 2020, 05:09:11 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 04:57:47 AM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Sounds a little early to me.

It's only over when Biden pulls ahead in PA (maybe late in the evening today, or tomorrow).

Anyway, I also made some awesome bets on WilliamHill.

If GA ends up Trump and Trump gets 240-268 EV, or GA/Biden and AZ/NV Trump, then I'll cash in 1.000€ on various bets !

I might have to wait a little longer for my money, because I guess they will only pay out the money if the AP has declared all 538 EV or those votes are cast in December ...

Nice one Tender!

You deserve the cash after recent events.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9239 on: November 05, 2020, 05:14:40 AM »
Apparently, unless there are some crazy surprises, a conservative estimate would indicate that Biden is on track to end up with a thin but safe lead in Pennsylvania once these 450,000 ballots are counted.
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Platypus
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« Reply #9240 on: November 05, 2020, 05:15:09 AM »
Sportsbet is notorious for paying out early, that was a joke for the non-Australians (but also may be a true joke).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9241 on: November 05, 2020, 05:17:05 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 05:14:40 AM
Apparently, unless there are some crazy surprises, a conservative estimate would indicate that Biden is on track to end up with a thin but safe lead in Pennsylvania once these 450,000 ballots are counted.

Correct.

A slight unknown is the fact that a certain percentage of mail ballots never get counted as valid, because they lack signatures.
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American2020
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« Reply #9242 on: November 05, 2020, 05:20:05 AM »
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9243 on: November 05, 2020, 05:20:13 AM »


This seems accurate to me, but can anyone offer any insight?
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philly09
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« Reply #9244 on: November 05, 2020, 05:24:02 AM »
Quote from: American2020 on November 05, 2020, 05:20:05 AM


As Aaron Mishkin said on Fox News earlier, the late arrivals will give Trump a slight boost, but nowhere near the numbers he needs to win the state.
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Angasboy15
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« Reply #9245 on: November 05, 2020, 05:26:06 AM »
Quote from: American2020 on November 05, 2020, 05:20:05 AM


Old news and probably not an accurate take.
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American2020
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« Reply #9246 on: November 05, 2020, 05:29:24 AM »
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philly09
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« Reply #9247 on: November 05, 2020, 05:30:44 AM »
Quote from: American2020 on November 05, 2020, 05:29:24 AM


Jon Cooper is notorious for tweeting false info and bad takes, so I would ignore anything he tweets.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9248 on: November 05, 2020, 05:34:00 AM »
Quote from: American2020 on November 05, 2020, 05:29:24 AM


This is false. Pennsylvania and Arizona/Nevada are where we need to look
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #9249 on: November 05, 2020, 05:34:57 AM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 05:30:44 AM
Quote from: American2020 on November 05, 2020, 05:29:24 AM


Jon Cooper is notorious for tweeting false info and bad takes, so I would ignore anything he tweets.

Probably best to not cater to partisan commentary.  

A good chunk of the past thirty hours or so has been spent side-eyeing "PA Democratic officials are telling me that..." or "(Team Trump member): Trump is on pace to win (state)" tweets.  
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