2012 NDP leadership convention

[MaxQue]

Can someone explain why it isn't a clear mistake to pick a candidate whose French is painful to listen to, whose rhetoric is full of middle-class-public-sector earnestness without any hint of working-class populism, and whose policies nevertheless lack any Mulcair-style centrist economics? I thought we learned in the 1990's that this combination didn't work so well.

No. I still fail to understand what people are finding good about Dewar. I would rank him 4th, for the moment.

He's not Topp; He's not Mulciar; and he's not Peggy Nash.

Not being someone isn't an asset.
Ask that to Liberals who ran entire campaigns on not being the Conservatives.

[Holmes]

Can someone explain why it isn't a clear mistake to pick a candidate whose French is painful to listen to, whose rhetoric is full of middle-class-public-sector earnestness without any hint of working-class populism, and whose policies nevertheless lack any Mulcair-style centrist economics? I thought we learned in the 1990's that this combination didn't work so well.

No. I still fail to understand what people are finding good about Dewar. I would rank him 4th, for the moment.

He's not Topp; He's not Mulciar; and he's not Peggy Nash.

I like Mulcair and Nash though, and a lot of other voting NDP members do as well. If that's all he has...

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Dewar is also my MP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Peter Kormos has endorsed Peggy Nash. Fairly notable endorsement.

[Holmes]

http://www.themarknews.com/articles/8029-the-next-70

[Hatman 🍁]

New map with Nash's endorsement

[RogueBeaver]

So, any guesses as to how the first ballot might look from our resident Dippers?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm not a dipper but my guess is:

Mulcair - 43,000
Nash - 20,000
Dewar - 19,000
Topp - 7,000
Others - 3,500

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair winning easily? If so, you'll be a prophet by bucking the pro-Topp punditocracy Teddy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but how much value should we give their predictions?

Consider: the media here doesn't understand how the Labour Party works (and so is terrible at predicting the results of internal elections) and we've been a serious contender for government for about ninety years. The NDP has been in that position for nine months.

[RogueBeaver]

There hasn't been an NDP leadership election in nearly a decade, but all the evidence suggests that Mulcair hasn't broken through in English Canada. I still think 1) Topp 2) Nash 3) Mulcair 4) Dewar on the first ballot. Beyond that I'm not predicting, because I know nothing of the NDP's internal dynamics.

[lilTommy]

There hasn't been an NDP leadership election in nearly a decade, but all the evidence suggests that Mulcair hasn't broken through in English Canada. I still think 1) Topp 2) Nash 3) Mulcair 4) Dewar on the first ballot. Beyond that I'm not predicting, because I know nothing of the NDP's internal dynamics.

Accidental Deliberations (a Sask based blogger) has a running rankings (i suppose like everyone) but he has it 1) Mulcair, 2) Nash, 3) Dewar, 4) Topp, 5)Ashton... Saganash, Cullen, Singh

The media has done a terrible job here too, probably because they aren't trying to bloody each other... except Topp and thats mostly backfired here. In ON, that seems to be a good call for the rankings but out west i have no clue how things are going... in the west Topp still seems to be getting endorsements, Dewar is doing rather well and Mulcair has picked up some good backing. To me Topp's policies sound great... but the man hasn't sold me and i think when NDPers look at the candidates and look who can WIN (many will be swayed by this) Topp drops down and becomes your 4th or 5th guy...

Two Alberta blogs gave Mulcair rather glowing reviews when he was in Edmonton (Daveberta and Alberta Diary) so maybe Mulcair will be that slow-and-stead-wins-the-race guy in the end.

http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2012/01/leadership-2012-candidate-rankings_15.html

[RogueBeaver]

Would Topp and Nash try to block him, as Rae and Iggy failed to do with Dion 6 years ago for the Grits? I'd be shocked if someone got an absolute majority on the first ballot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Back on '03, when I was a member of the NDP and on the provincial executive, we were all shocked that someone won a majority on the first ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair also goes against both the ideological and cultural grain of the party though. Would a party which has always picked happy warriors want a brawler like Mulcair? Especially one who's an explicit centre-leftist rather than a social democrat?

[lilTommy]

Mulcair also goes against both the ideological and cultural grain of the party though. Would a party which has always picked happy warriors want a brawler like Mulcair? Especially one who's an explicit centre-leftist rather than a social democrat?

I think thats exactly what Dippers are thinking right now... plus you have to remember the NDP is roughly a big-tent-left party... made up of socialists/social democrats/progressives (left to right) or Left/left-of-centre/centre-left. To me Dewar doesn't come across as a old Social Democrat either; Topp talks like one but acts like a Progressive/Moderate (his time with the saskieNDP)... only Nash, Ashton and Cullen strike me as Socialist/SD's.

http://daveberta.ca/2012/01/thomas-mulcair-comes-to-edmonton/
- Dave, who is a ALTA Liberal and Alberta Party guy says "I was not sure what to expect from his talk, but I found myself pleasantly surprised with Mr. Mulcair’s ability to offer intelligent pragmatic social democratic answers to a crowd  consisting of committed leftists was both impressive and sometimes brave "
... So Mulcair might either be a) learning to speak to the crowd; or b) has generally always been a SD and since in PQ there is no provincial wing, and if your a federalist the PartiQuebecois is hard to take... the Liberals is your only place (like Current MNA henri-françois gautrin who led the old QNPD and Nathalie Rochefort former MNA who was a federal Dipper).

from my perspective, we need a moderate leader to win over more moderates, thats the only real room to grow (outside of taking green, youth, non-voters... combined they wont add up to too much). The NDP needs to win in SASK/MAN (you need a moderate) and in Rural areas in BC/ON/Atlantic (again need a moderate) so... if the party still keeps SD policies but is led by someone who is seen as not a radical... plus Mulcair can take on Harper.

[Хahar 🤔]

I can't imagine Topp winning. What does he have going for him?

[Holmes]

Big name backers and media narrative.

[RogueBeaver]

Establishment support. Beyond that, I don't think he has much base traction.

[Hatman 🍁]

Al is right, the media doesn't understand how the NDP works. That's why it's good to pay attention to sites like the pundit's guide.

Brian Topp is like Jon Huntsman. The media likes to talk about him, but he's not a frontrunner.

[MaxQue]

Al is right, the media doesn't understand how the NDP works. That's why it's good to pay attention to sites like the pundit's guide.

Brian Topp is like Jon Huntsman. The media likes to talk about him, but he's not a frontrunner.

Well, unlike Huntsman, I think than Topp was or could have been a frontrunner at the beginning, but he badly played his cards and went down.

Huntsman can't win and could never win inside the current GOP.

[RogueBeaver]

So Mulcair, Nash and Dewar are the frontrunners?

[Holmes]

Well, probably not Dewar.

[RogueBeaver]

If the final ballot came down to Mulcair v. Nash, would an ABM movement spring up or would he win because one didn't organize (think Dion '06)?

[RogueBeaver]

It wouldn't be an issue in the NDP race, but regrettably might be one in the general.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/16/ndps-mulcair-will-keep-french-citizenship