2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

So it comes down to Mulcair v. Topp v. someone, apparently.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/soon+after+death+eyes+turn+next+leader+they+must/5303787/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Nash is the strongest union candidate, but she isn't running. So right now I honestly don't see anyone but Mulcair getting it in January.

Quebec: Yeah, and he also has a better shot at holding the Anglos, speaking as an NDG-Lachiner.

[RogueBeaver]

Which means the left vote splinters and Mulcair gets a first ballot plurality.

ROC Dippers: How do you think Mulcair would play in your neck of the woods?

[RogueBeaver]

Nash apparently isn't running for family reasons, so she's out.  Ashton is a good performer but too left if they want to grow their base and not even 30 yet.

Mulcair's temperament: I'm guessing that a lot of these stories come from people who've been on the receiving end. In QP he's usually even-tempered. The person who actually acts in public like everyone says Mulcair does in private would be that thug Coderre. A more serious issue would be that it would require a complete alteration of the feelgood, fuzzy image of the NDP cultivated by Layton.

For Mulcair to woo the left, he has to retain Davies as deputy or replace her with Julian.

[RogueBeaver]

In which case it's still Mulcair. Comartin is also electable but too old, Julian is too left but will be the left-union candidate in Nash's absence. Dewar's unilingualism rules him out.

[RogueBeaver]

The freshmen are going to vote against their mentor, who happens to be the best candidate by far in this field, for a man who at best is the NDP version of 2006's Martha Hall Findlay? Really? No one's heard of Ducasse except the hardest-core political junkies.

[RogueBeaver]

Chow is a freshly minted widow, I highly doubt she's up for that sort of political brawl right now. Plus she's unilingual, an automatic disqualifier for anyone who aspires to lead a federal party.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently the Topp candidacy was supposed to be a secret (a la PET '68) but got unexpectedly leaked. Either the Star or G&M said that this was the opening salvo of an ABM movement.

[RogueBeaver]

Who said it has to be subtle? Though even the best-laid plans can go awry: just ask Gerard Kennedy, Bob Winters or Paul Hellyer.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking as a Quebec anglo... FFS. No idea about Julian, but Topp is just as Quebecois as the Johnson brothers, or Pierre O'Neill... need I go on?

[RogueBeaver]

That sort of BS reminds me of the Peqs who make sneering references to "John James" Charest in the Le Devoir comments section. Or Levesque's "Elliott side" racist crap.

[RogueBeaver]

There was another article in the Hill Times which said Mulcair wouldn't have enough time to sell insta-memberships if the election is held in late January as expected. Depends who else runs though: Doer and Comartin are out, Cullen has young kids, so it looks like Topp, Nash, Julian and Mulcair ATM. All have flaws: Topp has never served a day in elective office, Nash would never kepe the soft left vote, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair to scrum later today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/potential-ndp-leadership-contender-thomas-mulcair-to-break-his-silence/article2147064/

[RogueBeaver]

He's thinking about it. His problem might be that he won't have enough time to sell instamemberships by January. Also, Doer and Comartin have said they're not running, per the Hill Times. Cullen probably won't either because of his young kids, and Chow won't either for obvious reasons.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201108/30/01-4430135-succession-de-layton-mulcair-reflechit.php

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair: Hence the "might" qualifier. There seems to be a whispering campaign against Mulcair- one report saying that Layton's inner circle "hated" him. While he's not that likeable, this whole thing smacks of the "angry man" Grit depiction of Harper from 2004-6.

[RogueBeaver]

Topp is also a Quebecer, so I don't see how that gets spun as anti-Quebec. Certainly Mulcair is much more visible as the key architect of Quebec victory though.

[RogueBeaver]

*Sigh* The media has been unanimous in calling him "perfectly bilingual." I haven't heard Topp speak in French, so I can't judge for myself. Perhaps he's less fluent than Mulcair, but compare that to the other leaders: Harper's French is the bare minimum required, while Rae has a heavy accent.

[RogueBeaver]

He's thinking about it. His problem might be that he won't have enough time to sell instamemberships by January. Also, Doer and Comartin have said they're not running, per the Hill Times. Cullen probably won't either because of his young kids, and Chow won't either for obvious reasons.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201108/30/01-4430135-succession-de-layton-mulcair-reflechit.php

What about Dewar?

Also possible. If I'm not mistaken he'd be in the NDP centre- correct me if I'm wrong. However Nash, Mulcair and Topp have much larger constituencies. In terms of IOUs, no one tops Topp.

[RogueBeaver]

Conflicting reports on whether or not Dewar speaks French. Chisholm is unilingual, Ashton too young and inexperienced. Leslie is also a member of the Class of '08. Julian will be the left candidate if Nash doesn't enter. The only people we know for sure are fluently bilingual are Mulcair, Topp and Nash.

[RogueBeaver]

So that rounds out the top 4. Would both Julian and Nash run?

[RogueBeaver]

So how would Mulcair be received in ROC, particularly Ontario? I'm sure that Nash and Julian would be well-received here, but that Nash would send the Anglos running back to the Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

You're not feeling Topp either, Hatman? I dunno. I think he rubs me the wrong way, leader-wise. How much do we even know about him? And he's been behind the scenes for so long... hasn't even held office. This whole Brian Topp thing seems like it came out of nowhere.

It came out of the Layton staff's ABM machinations.

[RogueBeaver]

Pat Martin phoned into P&P. Said that he staunchly supports "formal cooperation" with the Grits and will run if no one else advocates that position. Also said that he's heard rumblings of discontent with the Topp camp's leaks last week WRT Layton's letter.

[RogueBeaver]

What is P&P? Anyways, I think than any candidate running on a merger platform will perform poorly. In any case, the centrist wing of Liberals and the socialist wing of the NDP will probably never get along. And I doubt than the big Liberals egos (Rae, Trudeau, Brison...) will accept being a minority in their own party.

Power & Politics= P&P. I agree with you, and the two parties are incompatible ideologically and culturally- that's without taking egos into account.

[RogueBeaver]

Leslie would be an interesting candidate, but I don't see her making the final ballot.