2012 NDP leadership convention

[Hatman 🍁]

In his final letter to Canadians, Jack said that he wanted a timely leadership convention to be held in the new year.

While it is too early for the prospective candidates to decide whether or not they will be running, it will be interesting to take a look at those people who may run to replace him,

Here is an exhaustive list of possibles:

*Nathan Cullen, MP for Skeena-Bulkley Valley
*Randall Garrison, MP for Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
*Dawn Black, MLA and former MP
*Peter Julian, MP for Burnaby-New Westminster
*Libby Davies, MP for Vancouver East and Deputy Leader
*Adrian Dix, Leader of the BC NDP (only if there is a provincial election in the meantime and he steps down)
*Linda Duncan, MP for Edmonton-Strathcona
*Ray Martin, former Alberta NDP leader
*Raj Pannu, former Alberta NDP leader
*Lorne Nystrom, former MP
*Bill Blaikie, former MP
*Gary Doer, former Manitoba Premier and current Ambassador to the US
*Rebecca Blaikie, party treasurer, daughter of Bill
*Pat Martin, MP for Winnipeg Centre
*Judy Wasylycia-Leis, former MP
*Niki Ashton, MP for Churchill
*Charlie Angus, MP for Timmins-James Bay
*Shelley Martel, former MPP
*Howard Hampton, former Ontario NDP leader
*Glenn Thibault, MP for Sudbury
*Brian Masse, MP for Windsor West
*Joe Comartin, MP for Windsor-Tecumseh
*Irene Mathysen, MP for London-Fanshawe
*David Christopherson, MP for Hamilton Centre
*Jagmeet Singh, NDP candidate
*Peggy Nash, MP for Parkdale-High Park
*Marilyn Churley, former MPP
*David Miller, former mayor of Toronto
*Rathika Sitsabaiesan, MP for Scarborough-Rouge River
*El-Farouk Khaki, former candidate
*Olivia Chow, MP for Trinity-Spadina (Jack's widow)
*Cheri diNovo, MPP
*Andrew Cash, MP for Davenport
*Paul Dewar, MP for Ottawa Centre
*Alex Munter, former Ottawa city councillor
*Thomas Mulcair, MP for Outremont, deputy leader (favoured to win so far)
*Francoise Boivin, MP for Gatineau
*Tyrone Benskin, MP for Jeanne-Le Ber
*Hoang Mai, MP for Broassard-La Prairie
*Helene Laverdiere, MP for Laurier-Ste Marie
*Romeo Saganash, MP for Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik
*Yvon Godin, MP for Acadie-Bathurst
*Elizabeth Weir, former NB NDP leader
*Darrell Dexter, Premier of Nova Scotia
*Megan Leslie, MP for Halifax
*Robert Chisholm, MP for Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
*Peter Stoffer, MP for Sackville-Eastern Shore
*Jack Harris, MP for St John's East
*Ryan Cleary, MP for St John's South-Mt Pearl
*Lorraine Michael, leader of NL NDP
*Pierre Ducasse, former candidate
*Hunter Tootoo, Nunavut MLA
*Brian Topp, President of the NDP
*Anne McGrath, former president of the NDP
*Jian Ghomeshi, radio host
*George Stroumboulopoulos, TV host
*Roy Romanow, former Premier of Saskatchewan
*Shaun Majumder, comedian
*Barry Weisleder, head of the socialist caucus

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I have some ideas for who may run in a by-election:

These names come to mind:
Marilyn Churley
Mike Layton (although he is the councillor in Trinity-Spadina)
Peter Tabuns
Mary Fragedakis
Paula Fletcher

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for the record (which means that there's no need for anyone to actually respond to this post), the Boardbashi has no problems with this thread, given that Layton set the ball rolling with his last letter.

Which is exactly why I didn't think it inappropriate.

I still say Mulcair can not be beat.

Ontario in particular has always been willing to vote for whomever they think can win Quebec. Check the last federal election and how the NDP's poll numbers shot way up only after they did in Quebec.

Beyond that you need to remember the union movement does have guaranteed votes. While normally this might not mean much, it did elect the Labour leader over in the UK, and in a close race might be very important.

The Quebec union movement doesn't vote, since all unions are affilied with Bloc.

Time to switch their affiliations then. I agree with Teddy. NDPers want a winner, and that's why they'll go with Mulcair. He is basically the person mileslunn described in his post. He will probably have my vote (not necessarily on the first ballot though, that will be to Peter Julian or Paul Dewar or something if either run)

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for the record (which means that there's no need for anyone to actually respond to this post), the Boardbashi has no problems with this thread, given that Layton set the ball rolling with his last letter.

Which is exactly why I didn't think it inappropriate.

I still say Mulcair can not be beat.

Ontario in particular has always been willing to vote for whomever they think can win Quebec. Check the last federal election and how the NDP's poll numbers shot way up only after they did in Quebec.

Beyond that you need to remember the union movement does have guaranteed votes. While normally this might not mean much, it did elect the Labour leader over in the UK, and in a close race might be very important.

The Quebec union movement doesn't vote, since all unions are affilied with Bloc.

Time to switch their affiliations then. I agree with Teddy. NDPers want a winner, and that's why they'll go with Mulcair. He is basically the person mileslunn described in his post. He will probably have my vote (not necessarily on the first ballot though, that will be to Peter Julian or Paul Dewar or something if either run)

Members directly votes?

75% of the vote comes from individual members yes. The other 25% is the so called "union vote", which is actually just affiliated organizations. While most of that means unions, theoretically a church group or a student council could affiliate themselves with the party and vote for a candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for the record (which means that there's no need for anyone to actually respond to this post), the Boardbashi has no problems with this thread, given that Layton set the ball rolling with his last letter.

Which is exactly why I didn't think it inappropriate.

I still say Mulcair can not be beat.

Ontario in particular has always been willing to vote for whomever they think can win Quebec. Check the last federal election and how the NDP's poll numbers shot way up only after they did in Quebec.

Beyond that you need to remember the union movement does have guaranteed votes. While normally this might not mean much, it did elect the Labour leader over in the UK, and in a close race might be very important.

The Quebec union movement doesn't vote, since all unions are affilied with Bloc.

Time to switch their affiliations then. I agree with Teddy. NDPers want a winner, and that's why they'll go with Mulcair. He is basically the person mileslunn described in his post. He will probably have my vote (not necessarily on the first ballot though, that will be to Peter Julian or Paul Dewar or something if either run)

Members directly votes?

75% of the vote comes from individual members yes. The other 25% is the so called "union vote", which is actually just affiliated organizations. While most of that means unions, theoretically a church group or a student council could affiliate themselves with the party and vote for a candidate.

They will make us aware of how to vote, I suppose? (I joined NDP in February)

Yes, of course. You will probably have to renew your membership soon so it will be good for next year so that you can vote.

Who do you think you would support?

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for the record (which means that there's no need for anyone to actually respond to this post), the Boardbashi has no problems with this thread, given that Layton set the ball rolling with his last letter.

Which is exactly why I didn't think it inappropriate.

I still say Mulcair can not be beat.

Ontario in particular has always been willing to vote for whomever they think can win Quebec. Check the last federal election and how the NDP's poll numbers shot way up only after they did in Quebec.

Beyond that you need to remember the union movement does have guaranteed votes. While normally this might not mean much, it did elect the Labour leader over in the UK, and in a close race might be very important.

The Quebec union movement doesn't vote, since all unions are affilied with Bloc.

Time to switch their affiliations then. I agree with Teddy. NDPers want a winner, and that's why they'll go with Mulcair. He is basically the person mileslunn described in his post. He will probably have my vote (not necessarily on the first ballot though, that will be to Peter Julian or Paul Dewar or something if either run)

Members directly votes?

75% of the vote comes from individual members yes. The other 25% is the so called "union vote", which is actually just affiliated organizations. While most of that means unions, theoretically a church group or a student council could affiliate themselves with the party and vote for a candidate.

They will make us aware of how to vote, I suppose? (I joined NDP in February)

Yes, of course. You will probably have to renew your membership soon so it will be good for next year so that you can vote.

Who do you think you would support?

In fact, I never participed in a partisan event, because of timing problems. I did some pre-campaigning (calling people in March). Is that a problem which would deprive me of voting ability?

Um no, any member in good standing can vote. But, I do encourage your to become active in your local riding association- if you have one. I know they must be springing up like hot cakes in Quebec. They will probably be very happy to have to join up. If you're active enough you can take a leading role come the next election, and who knows, you may get some great political opportunities from that. It's always nice to be on the winning side.

[Hatman 🍁]

They held the investiture ceremony of Mulcair and they sent me an email, but I wasn't avaliable that night. Since then, nothing.

And no sight of an riding association appearing in Abitibi.
In fact, my MP didn't inaugurated his office yet (He was supposed to do it on Wednesday, but, obviously, things changed.)

And my local association is Outremont, which is already active. I often receive a newsletter.

EDIT: I checked, both Abitibi associations are still based in Montreal and chaired by Anne-Marie Aubert, which is an NDP-Québec staffer.

Ahh then, it's time to create one!

I guess if you're in Montreal most of the time, it would be pointless, but if you do spend a lot of time in Abitibi, you should go to the new office and talk to the staff about creating one. That is, if they are NDPers.

[Hatman 🍁]

I added a few more people to the list of potential candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Topp is also being considered one of the favourites.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Topp is also being considered one of the favourites.

I still wonder why.

Like I said, he seems a wonderful organiser and it would be a loss to the party if he became leader.

Im not sure either. What would separate him from Mulcair? I guess with Mulcair, there's the thought of him being too new to NDP circles.

[Hatman 🍁]

I know he likely won't run, but how about Gary Doer?  He won three back to back majorities in a province that went solidly Conservative last federal election and he was able to cut taxes and balance the budget all while maintaining the party's commitment to social justice.  I think the NDP's big weakness is many see them as to beholden to unions and tax and spenders.  I think most Canadians actually like the NDP's ideals so if you can get someone who is fiscally responsible that would take away one more weapon against them from their opponenets.

Gary's on my list, and is one of the potential candidates. Not sure if he'll run though. He is older, being Jack's age, but that's not too old. I should add though that the NDP should consider someone younger that the youth can get behind.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would be surprised if someone from the Socialist Caucus doesn't run. I'm thinking Barry Weisleder may do it. Oh what fun that would be.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I thought Mulcair would be a front runner, but from talking to some NDPers, there is a worry about his abrasive personality.  Brian Topp is seen as a moderate, and may get the moderate vote.

I think it all comes down to who Ed Broadbent endorses, although Chow's choice may be up there too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Peter Julian is definitely on the left of the party. I used to work in his office, and I am very familiar with his career. But, he's not a Socialist caucus type, if that's what you mean.

Pierre Ducasse is an interesting case. His speech at the 2003 convention raised quite a few eyebrows.  Did anyone outside of Toronto know who Jack was in 2003? Not many. He could run and make an impact, for sure. Don't know though.

As for Peggy Nash, she is the best female candidate the NDP has. Her and Olivia Chow, perhaps. Anne McGrath is another good female choice. Howabout Francoise Boivin? Come to think of it, there's at least a few good women who could run. Someone told me today that Chow is a really good strategist (better than Layton, even), but would make a lousy leader.

Ashton would be an interesting choice. I know I said youth is important, but she may be too young.

[Hatman 🍁]

To the average voter, Jack wasn't a known commodity in 2003. While I was still in high school at the time, I certainly didn't know who he was, but I certainly knew who Bill Blaikie or Lorne Nystrom was. 

Anyways, Ducasse probably won't run, but he should run to be an MP at some point!

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

It's much more than just 1%. 10% would be a conservative estimate, but it could well be much higher. 1% is an extremely low amount.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe in 2015 Turmel will retire (she will be 72 by then) and then Ducasse can run...the point is that Layton was known in NDP circles in 2003 as well as in Toronto. and that was critical to winning the leadership. I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

And he had the crucial Broadband endorsement.

If Broadbent endorses Ducasse, then what? ;-)

Who will Broadbent endorse? Maybe Brian Topp...

[Hatman 🍁]

Chow really should prioritize getting her life back in order after this whole ordeal. She looked horrible this past week, really different from how we're used to seeing her. I wouldn't see her running in a better circumstance either, though. As for her unilingualism, she also speaks Cantonese, and I believe Mandarin? Not that it would really help much outside her riding, and some in Vancouver.

What? Olivia is taking it very well, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

She's being praised for her composure.

[Hatman 🍁]

Peter Julian is the dark horse right now in my opinion.

[Hatman 🍁]

So this campaign is going to turn into who can out French everyone else? Oh dear...

[Hatman 🍁]

I really hope the convention is in Ottawa, like some are suggesting. I really can't afford to fly across the country again. Montreal would be another good choice.

Anyways, I think the NDP should really try to engage Canadians in the race. The party should invite Canadians across the country to sign up and be a part of the political process to choose the next Prime Minister of Canada! It's what Jack would have wanted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Montreal is good. Quebec City is better.

We were just in Quebec City in 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doer hasn't said anything, only his aides.

Also, I think Mulcair not having a hope is utter BS. There will be lots of time to get memberships, and I think he is already in the lead amongst current members, whether they are in Quebec or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Julian is bilingual. I used to work in his office. He also knows sign language and was learning Mandarin.

Anyways, even if the party insiders want Topp to win, that doesn't mean he will. In the provincial convention, all the insiders wanted Tabuns to win (including Ed Broadbent), but Andrea Horwath won.

I don't think the party membership is going to bend over and take anyone the party tells them to take. I didn't even know who Topp was until he was crammed down our throat at convention when he ran unopposed to be the President.