2012 NDP leadership convention

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I still say Mulcair can not be beat.

Ontario in particular has always been willing to vote for whomever they think can win Quebec. Check the last federal election and how the NDP's poll numbers shot way up only after they did in Quebec.

Beyond that you need to remember the union movement does have guaranteed votes. While normally this might not mean much, it did elect the Labour leader over in the UK, and in a close race might be very important.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I maintain that Mulcair will win unless someone can get massive union support.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm still convinced that NDP members will see Mulcair as the only person who can hold on to Quebec, and that the only person who can defeat him, will need union support.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Julian, Dewar, Ducasse, Topp VS Mulcair

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mulcair is an ass. Then again so was Cheney, and he did pretty well for himself.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Julian, Dewar, Ducasse, Topp VS Mulcair

I doubt the NDP would put up w/a leadership race w/o at least one viable female contender.

They will have to. These are the only viable contenders.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I actually think Ducasse is the only person who can beat Mulcair.

Not because he can beat him on his own, but because all the anti-mulcair people need to get behind someone, and if they want widespread support, that someone has to be a Quebecois.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mark my words.

I am not saying he will run. I am saying that Mulcair wins, but the only person who could beat him is Ducasse.

I'm however leaving the door open in the event that Ducasse and at least 30 Quebec MP's endorse someone else.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Julian is trying to sell himself as a Quebecois. I've heard people try to sell Topp as one too.

If someone can successfully do so, they wont even need Ducasse.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

In the mins of many anglos, you cant be Quebecois with a name like Brian or Topp. You name has to be Jean (and you are a man) or Pierre, or François, or Mathieu, or Réjean. And your last name has to be like Trudeau, or Duceppe, or Bouchard, or Dusseault, or Michaud, or Laverdière, or Côté.

For example, Mauril Bélanger, is most certainly from Quebec, and a Quebecois. Look at his last name, it has one of them thar silent R's at the end, and what kinda name is Moe-real anyway? He's from Ottawa you say? Ottawa van-yeay? Thats french! Must be on the udder side 'o that thar river up in Quebecks, see he's a Kwebecker I told ya whut; hee haw!

At least, that's how people think.
Jack Layton for example was born in Montreal, but how many people know that even now, outside Quebec?

English Canadians, especially those from Ontario, like to vote for people who they think can win Quebec. The problem is that the people who Ontarians think can in Quebec, a lot of the time, are not the same people who Quebeckers think can win Quebec.

If Topp and Julian intend to win, they need to convince Ontarian NDP voters that they are Quebecois. Not Quebeckers. Quebecois. Even if they are, it does not matter, all that matters is what the NDP leadership voters think.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thomas M is a Quebecois because the media told us so

And no, I dont take card-carrying NDPers for fools. I take people for fools. Because they are fools.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Montreal is good. Quebec City is better.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Uh... lack of time to sell memberships will not hurt Mulcair, it will help him. Time is Mulcair's enemy. If the election were held the moment I hit the post button, Mulcair would win, even if they used a preferential ballot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Any Liberals supporting merger should off and join the NDP. It's not like any of them are in any not-winnible NDP ridings.

The Liberals, if they want to return to Government, need to steal seats not from the NDP, but from the Tories. This means seats in Calgary. The Liberals need not turn left, they need to turn right. Canada is becoming a more small-c conservative country.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Chisholm is the guy who almost lead the NS NDP to government, but didn't (in part), because of personal failings. I have a hard time seeing him as leader.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember that unlike the other parties (outside Atlantic Liberals) the NDP shares provincial and federal memberships. If you are in one, you are in the other. No opting-out.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember that unlike the other parties (outside Atlantic Liberals) the NDP shares provincial and federal memberships. If you are in one, you are in the other. No opting-out.

Except in Québec.

Only because the NDP has no provincial wing in Quebec It was de-affiliated, then merged into a party, which merged into a party, which merged into QS

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember that unlike the other parties (outside Atlantic Liberals) the NDP shares provincial and federal memberships. If you are in one, you are in the other. No opting-out.

Except in Québec.

Only because the NDP has no provincial wing in Quebec It was de-affiliated, then merged into a party, which merged into a party, which merged into QS

Which is why Mulcair has said he won't run unless the convention is pushed back into spring.

Wonderful. I hope it's next month.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm willing to bet that 85%-95% of Quebeckers are aware both that Layton is dead, and, that he was NDP leader. I'm willing to bet that of them, a good 90% are able to reason that the NDP needs a new leader.

Frankly, if they are unwilling to join the party in 30 days, they should not really be allowed a vote.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wanting to vote for a particular candidate for party leader is, perhaps, not the greatest reason to join a political party.

That's the main reason anyone joins parties in Canada (that and nomination contests)

This.

Party membership here tends to fluctuate between 40,000 and 80,000, but parties have been known to reach 160,000 before. It always peaks during leadership races.

A few years back, the Liberals had 70,000, the Tories 90,000, and the NDP 60,000. The Bloc, IIRC, had 5,000, and the Greens, at the time, in the 3ple didgets. IIRC, this places a total of 225,000. The population was 32,000,000 at the time. Less than 1%.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wanting to vote for a particular candidate for party leader is, perhaps, not the greatest reason to join a political party.

That's the main reason anyone joins parties in Canada (that and nomination contests)

It's interesting how different our two political cultures are. Over here, signing up members for this purpose would be called branch stacking and is heavily frowned-upon (and often criticised in the media and by people whose opponents have signed up many new members).

Your system also makes it illegal for anyone to lead a party if he does not have a seat. That person must instead be the head of the "election team"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

We should really look at moving to an open primary system using party registration. Wont happen though, as our way means $$$ for members.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Any chance of a re-launch of the Quebec NDP?  I mean, considering that it will probably be like a heartland for them from now on, (unless they suddenly see a collapse in Quebecois support) federally, it makes little sense not to have a provincial NDP in Quebec. 

We already have two social democratic parties in Quebec: PQ and QS. Even federalist social democrats vote PQ.

I know none federalist social democrat supporting PQ. They support QS or are big supporters of Legault thing.

And anyways, Marois' PQ isn't social democrat. It has no other ideology than chasing votes, now.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but I still don't see any Quebec NDP. We haven't had any provincial branches of federal parties since the PLQ became independent in 1964.

I neither see a Quebec NDP. But I have to correct you, NDP had a provincial branch in Quebec in the 80's, I think.

There was also a provincial PC Party that captured a whole 1% of the vote in that election between the end of the UN and the beginning of the ADQ.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All this melodrama around the leadership, who likes who, who does not, who is nice, who is a grouch, who was close to who, and all the while, no talk about real policy at all.

It's almost... American.

Still. Topp has not convinced me he is a Quebecois. Sanganash might have "the stuff" to beat Mulcair if he can get off the ground; he's not a Quebecois, but he is a Quebecker, and if any party is going to elect Canada's first Native leader, it would be the NDP.

Julian might be able to sell himself as Quebecois as long as he can have a lot of French people introduce him and say his name without the N like how they always use to call Paul Martin, Paul Martai

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Your opinion does not count since you live in Quebec It's all about what the middle-class-uneducated-white-anglo-ontarian-western-canadian-NDP-members think