KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Roll Roons]

I expect Dems to win KS, NC, AZ and CO. KS with Kelly is different now.

No it's not. Sebelius was also governor in the 2000s, but that didn't mean KS senate races in 2004 and 2008 were anything other than Safe R. The state hasn't had a Democratic senator since FDR was in office. This will only be competitive if Kris Kobach or Sam Brownback is the nominee.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1081198460660006914

He'll be 84 in 2020. I'd be more surprised if he didn't retire.

[Roll Roons]

3rd most vulnerable seat after AZ and CO

You forgot THE most vulnerable seat.

Probably referring only to R-held seats. Anyway, I'd say KS is 8th, after CO, AZ, NC, ME, GA, IA and TX.

[Roll Roons]

Sebelius would not be a good option if Democrats want to take this seat. She'd go the way of Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, etc.

[Roll Roons]

Kobach tells NYT he's considering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umDr0mPuyQc

[Roll Roons]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

[Roll Roons]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

With the exception of Strickland, all the candidates you mention did better than practically any other candidate from their party would have done in the Senate race in the year and state in which they ran.

Ok, but they all still lost, and by double digits in all cases except Thompson. I really don't see how it would be any different with Sebelius. Even with Kobach it would be tossup at most.

[Roll Roons]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

I know they're trying to go for a Todd Akin redux here but I don't think that's a good idea. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s. It'd be a tossup at best with Kobach as the nominee.

[Roll Roons]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

Come on. Between this and Moore just why???

[Roll Roons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

[Roll Roons]

IE changed their rating from Safe to Lean R, as they think Kobach is the primary frontrunner. https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/kansas-senate-pompeo-decision-makes-seat-more-vulnerable

[Roll Roons]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

Yeah, I expect to see establishment types rally around Marshall. Roberts and Moran will probably do the same.

[Roll Roons]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

[Roll Roons]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

I don’t think many Democrats would or should care about the difference in quality between a potential Senator Kobach who they have a 50-50 shot of beating. Or an almost guaranteed Senator Marshall if he wins the primary. As it is, both Kobach and Marshall are sycophants to a guy who suggested people inject themselves with bleach and decided to make an ass of himself waving a bible around at a church. The end result is the same no matter what if Bollier loses: a vote to keep McConnell majority leader

Think of it this way: Marshall would probably be a generic Republican who sticks around for several terms and has a reliable voting record, but doesn't really make much of an impact, good or bad. Think Jerry Moran, Mike Crapo or Bill Cassidy.

On the other hand, Kobach is very ambitious, and would have a new platform to build his national profile, likely in advance of a Trump-esque presidential run in 2024 or 2028.

[Roll Roons]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of California Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Those literally should have been Republican holds if not for Tom Steyer and his bulls**t. This is off-topic but that is one of the reasons I cannot stand him. He took away good, moderate voices just so he could have a platform to make a vanity presidential run and jerk himself off.

Along with Trump and his incompetence on the pandemic, pretty much everything to do with Tom Steyer and California in 2018 are the things in politics that really makes my blood boil.

[Roll Roons]

> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.

Most of your points are fair, but I'm not a fan of the argument that Bollier could win because Kelly did. No one is saying Maryland, Massachusetts or Vermont could go to Trump.

[Roll Roons]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

[Roll Roons]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.   

Marshall's voting record will be reliably conservative, but he will just be another generic red state Republican who keeps his head down and spends three or four terms as a backbencher.

Kobach is outspoken and ambitious, and if he becomes a Senator, he will likely run for president. Being a Senator will largely cause people to forget about his loss in 2018. Imagine a 2024 GOP primary where Kris Kobach, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. are all trying to out-Trump each other.

[Roll Roons]

At this point, what are the odds that Trump tweets out a surprise endorsement? Also will the NRSC support Kobach if he wins the primary?

[Roll Roons]

I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?

Not commenting on Hamilton specifically, but a wonderful former congressman from Illinois who previously ran his family's pest control company. Or the Jersey guy who was in the NFL. The car dealer from Virginia. Or how about a construction business owner from Vermont who won a State Senate seat in 2000? People who have no experience can become great public servants.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1290824704111136768

DDHQ calls it for Marshall.

[Roll Roons]

I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.

He's a generic and inoffensive, and that really should be enough. He's not exceptionally strong, but he's also not actively terrible like Kobach.

[Roll Roons]

Holy ****

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1315642116438200320

For all the complaining about Jaime Harrison raising a ton that could have gone to other candidates, it looks like they're doing pretty well for themselves.