KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Coastal Elitist]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Trumps internals are showing his numbers going down here, so it’s not so far fetched that KS could still be competitive with Marshall

What internals? Recent polling shows Trump with a 12 point lead in Kansas: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/kansas/

If someone cites a poll where they don't publish the numbers it's probably not real.

[Roll Roons]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of California Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Those literally should have been Republican holds if not for Tom Steyer and his bulls**t. This is off-topic but that is one of the reasons I cannot stand him. He took away good, moderate voices just so he could have a platform to make a vanity presidential run and jerk himself off.

Along with Trump and his incompetence on the pandemic, pretty much everything to do with Tom Steyer and California in 2018 are the things in politics that really makes my blood boil.

[WD]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of California Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

Those literally should have been Republican holds if not for Tom Steyer and his bulls**t. This is off-topic but that is one of the reasons I cannot stand him. He took away good, moderate voices just so he could have a platform to make a vanity presidential run and jerk himself off.

Along with Trump and his incompetence on the pandemic, pretty much everything to do with Tom Steyer and California in 2018 are the things in politics that really makes my blood boil.

That’s just politics. You can’t complain about campaign advertising

[wbrocks67]

> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.

[Roll Roons]

> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.

Most of your points are fair, but I'm not a fan of the argument that Bollier could win because Kelly did. No one is saying Maryland, Massachusetts or Vermont could go to Trump.

[ShadowRocket]

What is everyone's current prediction as to who wins the GOP primary at this point?

I'm still thinking that Kobach narrowly pulls it off, but admit that may be colored by wishful thinking.

[YE]

What is everyone's current prediction as to who wins the GOP primary at this point?

I'm still thinking that Kobach narrowly pulls it off, but admit that may be colored by wishful thinking.

I’m conflicted.

On one hand, crazies have been winning GOP primaries. On the other hand, Kobach is a loser and the GOP base doesn’t like losers (see Roy Moore and Sharon Angle post 2017 and 2010),

[SnowLabrador]

What is everyone's current prediction as to who wins the GOP primary at this point?

I'm still thinking that Kobach narrowly pulls it off, but admit that may be colored by wishful thinking.

Marshall. As I've said time and again, the GOP isn't stupid enough to nominate Kobach again.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What is everyone's current prediction as to who wins the GOP primary at this point?

I'm still thinking that Kobach narrowly pulls it off, but admit that may be colored by wishful thinking.

Marshall. As I've said time and again, the GOP isn't stupid enough to nominate Kobach again.

Never underestimate the stupidity of Republican voters. I don’t think Kobach will win the primary without the help of a Dem group coming to his aid last minute, but here’s to hoping.

[wbrocks67]

I think there's equal chance Kobach and Marshall win. If Kobach wins, it'll be because the vote is too split up between the other candidates, b/c isn't there like 10 on the ballot or something?

[Pollster]

I would guess the race is tight between Kobach and Marshall, as it was between Kobach and Colyer. The lack of recent internal polling from either campaign or any of their allies points to this as well.

Gun to my head, I'd stick with Kobach, who should never be underestimated among Kansas Republicans. There seems to be genuinely minimal enthusiasm for Marshall, among both the party brass and voters.

[Lognog]

> Kansas elected a Democratic governor in 2018
> It has a pretty high concentration of college+ folks
> Bollier is raising ridiculous amounts of $$
> The GOP primary is extremely ugly right now
> Trump's own internals are showing him doing horrifically in the state

All of the evidence that we have points to the fact that this could be a real race. Anyone who denies it just not seeing what's in front of their face. I don't care that Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 70 or whatever years. 2020 is a different ballgame, and people should realize that by now.

Most of your points are fair, but I'm not a fan of the argument that Bollier could win because Kelly did. No one is saying Maryland, Massachusetts or Vermont could go to Trump.

Nobody is saying MD,MA, and VT will go Trump because he's down like 25+ points there. Again, KS is different he's not doing well there

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this could only be a real race if Kobach wins the nomination, in which case it is quite competitive.  Otherwise, nah.

[tmthforu94]

I think Marshall will win. The race is pretty close right now, and in the final month, Marshall should dominate the airwaves. Kobach is a known loser and I don't see him winning over much else at this point, Marshall has much more room to grow. Turnout will be the challenge, as I don't think Marshall's supporters are as motivated to GOTV.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who didn't see that coming?

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283388885129723905

[SnowLabrador]

Who didn't see that coming?

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283388885129723905

Trying to pull a McCaskill. I like it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We havent seen a poll from this race

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R with Kobach
Safe R with Marhall

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who didn't see that coming?

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283388885129723905

Apparently it's for $850,000. Marshall is also taking heavy fire from Bob Hamilton. I dare not get my hopes up, but at least Democrats are being strategic about this.

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

[Roll Roons]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

I don't think Democrats see it as "risky" though, is what my point is. To many Democrats, Marshall and Kobach are the same, one is just more overt, and incompetent, about his intentions.

[Tender Branson]

Election Twitter has successfully fundraised more than 7.000$ in the past week to poll KS.

SurveyUSA will conduct the Senate R primary, Senate GE and Presidential polls.

[Landslide Lyndon]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

What's the risk for Democrats? It's not like Marshall is some kind of Jacob Javits-like liberal Republican who will occasionally side with them and help them enact their agenda. He will be as much of a loyal foot soldier of Cocaine Mitch as Kobach.
And Kobach has the added bonus that if he is elected he will probably be an embarrassment and a thorn to the side of Republican leadership.   

[Pollster]

Really stunning how awful Republican fundraising has been in this race so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, but they havent released any polls on KS primary or GE or SC or MA primary Senate. We can only guess on how well the candidates are doing based on Cov8d 19