KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Pollster]

This is behind a paywall so I can't see details, but...

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1314291612760125440?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

This is behind a paywall so I can't see details, but...

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1314291612760125440?s=20

Unless I see the crosstabs, I'm not believing it. I think Marshall wins by high single digits.

[Lognog]

This is behind a paywall so I can't see details, but...

https://twitter.com/bradc25/status/1314291612760125440?s=20

Unless I see the crosstabs, I'm not believing it. I think Marshall wins by high single digits.

apparently this is a Republican internal?

[Hope For A New Era]

Adkins down by 20, that’s double 2018’s margin! I guess that’s where Bollier’s jump into the lead in that poll has come from. That might even be enough to pull De La Isla across in KS-02, if similar dynamics are playing out in Lawrence and Topeka.

[wbrocks67]

Holy ****

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1315642116438200320

[Roll Roons]

Holy ****

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1315642116438200320

For all the complaining about Jaime Harrison raising a ton that could have gone to other candidates, it looks like they're doing pretty well for themselves.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Holy ****

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1315642116438200320

For all the complaining about Jaime Harrison raising a ton that could have gone to other candidates, it looks like they're doing pretty well for themselves.

All of the Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races (with the notable exceptions of GA/TX) have raised more than enough. Harrison has just raised way more than enough and some of that that might have been better spent in House/local races or wave insurance Senate seats.

[wbrocks67]

Holy ****

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1315642116438200320

For all the complaining about Jaime Harrison raising a ton that could have gone to other candidates, it looks like they're doing pretty well for themselves.

All of the Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races (with the notable exceptions of GA/TX) have raised more than enough. Harrison has just raised way more than enough and some of that that might have been better spent in House/local races or wave insurance Senate seats.

Hegar and Warnock did less than others, but $13M is definitely enough in GA, and should be enough to get a decent enough jump for Hegar in TX, esp since Cornyn is flailing

[Blair]

I keep banging on about it but there is no way to force people to give to a certain route- these donations aren't coming from lobbyists who you can treat like chess pieces.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I keep banging on about it but there is no way to force people to give to a certain route- these donations aren't coming from lobbyists who you can treat like chess pieces.

Joint fundraiser agreements, promotion of local candidates and maxing out on donations from one campaign to another are all plausible avenues of exploration. Al Gross was memed into prominence, so it can be done just by changing the conversations and culture surrounding small-dollar political donations.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Looks like Bollier is going to lose the Ron Paul vote.

[Pollster]

Adkins down by 20, that’s double 2018’s margin! I guess that’s where Bollier’s jump into the lead in that poll has come from. That might even be enough to pull De La Isla across in KS-02, if similar dynamics are playing out in Lawrence and Topeka.

It's definitely possible that Trump could see the bottom fall out in Topeka (and Wichita). Whether or not that extends down-ballot is pretty critical here for Bollier and de la Isla's chances.

KS-04 contains a lot of solidly GOP rural territory balanced out by Wichita, it will be fascinating to see what the swings look like there.

[Hope For A New Era]

Adkins down by 20, that’s double 2018’s margin! I guess that’s where Bollier’s jump into the lead in that poll has come from. That might even be enough to pull De La Isla across in KS-02, if similar dynamics are playing out in Lawrence and Topeka.

It's definitely possible that Trump could see the bottom fall out in Topeka (and Wichita). Whether or not that extends down-ballot is pretty critical here for Bollier and de la Isla's chances.

KS-04 contains a lot of solidly GOP rural territory balanced out by Wichita, it will be fascinating to see what the swings look like there.

Wichita historically has been a pretty R city, so he has a lot of room to fall. There's also the weirdly Democratic rural county, Harvey, north of Wichita. Curious to see what happens there.

Topeka is an odd case. The area south and west of 470 is probably where Democrats could gain. I imagine that's the area where De La Isla will outperform Biden the most.

[warandwar]

Sadly voters don't care about this stuff. Tuberville didn't know what the Voting Rights Act is and it was barely news.

The PATRIOT Act is probably one of 3 pieces of legislation ppl care about (ACA and Trump Tax Cuts being the others). It occupies a big place in the American imaginary.

[Pollster]

Adkins down by 20, that’s double 2018’s margin! I guess that’s where Bollier’s jump into the lead in that poll has come from. That might even be enough to pull De La Isla across in KS-02, if similar dynamics are playing out in Lawrence and Topeka.

It's definitely possible that Trump could see the bottom fall out in Topeka (and Wichita). Whether or not that extends down-ballot is pretty critical here for Bollier and de la Isla's chances.

KS-04 contains a lot of solidly GOP rural territory balanced out by Wichita, it will be fascinating to see what the swings look like there.

Wichita historically has been a pretty R city, so he has a lot of room to fall. There's also the weirdly Democratic rural county, Harvey, north of Wichita. Curious to see what happens there.

Topeka is an odd case. The area south and west of 470 is probably where Democrats could gain. I imagine that's the area where De La Isla will outperform Biden the most.

What is most fascinating is that neither candidate has strong ties to the Wichita area (Marshall's district is mostly in the Wichita media market, but he's never ran a competitive general election campaign on the airwaves before) so there's a lot of room for definition of both candidates among the area's critical bloc of voters. Bollier obviously had a head start here since she has been airing general election messaging for a year now, while Marshall had to focus on his primary. That, plus its relatively surprising election of a young Democratic mayor last year (ousting a Republican incumbent) are signs that it will be an interesting battleground.

[VAR]

Marshall raised $2.7M in Q3.

[wbrocks67]

Marshall raised $2.7M in Q3.

Yikes

[Common Sense Atlantan]

I’m just not seeing any way that Marshall loses.

[Pollster]

Strong signs of confidence from Marshall.

https://twitter.com/rogermarshallmd/status/1320487788974845958?s=21

[Calthrina950]

Strong signs of confidence from Marshall.

https://twitter.com/rogermarshallmd/status/1320487788974845958?s=21

Susan Collins and Joni Ernst both tried this same ploy, and look at the positions those two women are now at. When candidates start demanding more debates, or in the case of Lindsey Graham, begging for money, then you know that they are in serious trouble. I still believe Marshall will win by a narrow margin in the end, but there's a strong likelihood that he becomes the first Republican in almost ninety years to lose a Senate race in Kansas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Marshall really in imminent danger of losing or is he just a fool?

[JerryArkansas]

Is Marshall really in imminent danger of losing or is he just a fool?

I think its both.  He's a fool because he let it get this close, along with optics of begging for a debate a week from election day; and hes in imminent danger of losing because he's being drug down by a weight.

[tmthforu94]

Roger Marshall looks like he will win by double-digits. I always felt confident in his chances, though recent polling and fundraising numbers had me thinking it would be a lot closer.

LaTurner easily holds KS-02 and Davids wins KS-03 by much less than many had predicted.

In the legislature, I haven't seen the full numbers yet, but it looks to be largely a wash - Republicans will have big majorities in both chambers again, possibly a supermajority again in the Senate. Disgraced loser Aaron Coleman, the young Democrat who won in Kansas City, KS with all the scandals, is easily winning tonight with 65%+.

[Bootes Void]

hey atleast look at the bright side, we didnt end up Kobach

[Calthrina950]

Roger Marshall looks like he will win by double-digits. I always felt confident in his chances, though recent polling and fundraising numbers had me thinking it would be a lot closer.

LaTurner easily holds KS-02 and Davids wins KS-03 by much less than many had predicted.

In the legislature, I haven't seen the full numbers yet, but it looks to be largely a wash - Republicans will have big majorities in both chambers again, possibly a supermajority again in the Senate. Disgraced loser Aaron Coleman, the young Democrat who won in Kansas City, KS with all the scandals, is easily winning tonight with 65%+.

Kansas seems to have swung back to the Republicans on the downballot level this year.