KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[tmthforu94]

Also, speaking generally - we are 4 days out and I really have no clue what is going to happen. Lots of negativity on the airwaves, we haven't had any public polling. I am trying to get info from my sources on internal polls - the most I've gotten is that both sides have it close, if I hear anything I will let everyone know.

One thing of note:
https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1288633637093748737?s=20

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1289327250970558464

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1289327250970558464

A portent of the eventual partisan divide around absentee voting.

[tmthforu94]

Honestly while those advance numbers are great for Democrats, something to consider is that TRUMP is waging a war against mail voting, so a lot of Republicans are preferring to vote in person. No doubt Democrats will improve on 2016 numbers, but it won't be nearly this close.

[RogueBeaver]

Recent NRSC poll has 33/30 Marshall and their polling had Marshall comfortably ahead till Schumer's PAC blasted him.

[wbrocks67]

What is everyone's predictions? I think a scenario where it's like 35 Kobach, 30 Marshall, and then 35 split up between the other 100 candidates...

[MT Treasurer]

Recent NRSC poll has 33/30 Marshall and their polling had Marshall comfortably ahead till Schumer's PAC blasted him.

It’s embarrassing and shocking how bad Republicans are at responding to Democratic attack ads and going cutthroat themselves. No wonder they’re losing so many red states.

I’ve seen some of the attacks in this race, and they’re disgusting even by today's political campaigns' standards (like the one accusing Marshall of having performed an abortion).

[here2view]

What is everyone's predictions? I think a scenario where it's like 35 Kobach, 30 Marshall, and then 35 split up between the other 100 candidates...

I think Marshall wins but it'll be by 5 or so. I wouldn't wager anything against Kobach winning though.

[Pollster]

Recent NRSC poll has 33/30 Marshall and their polling had Marshall comfortably ahead till Schumer's PAC blasted him.

"Comfortably ahead" is a useless classification, but if the Dem meddling brought the race from (presumptively) a clear Marshall lead to a virtual tie, I'd imagine Kobach will lead in the same-day vote.

[Roll Roons]

At this point, what are the odds that Trump tweets out a surprise endorsement? Also will the NRSC support Kobach if he wins the primary?

[MT Treasurer]

At this point, what are the odds that Trump tweets out a surprise endorsement? Also will the NRSC support Kobach if he wins the primary? 

The NRSC will be too busy prioritizing hyper-competitive Tossup races in CO and AZ over KS.

[tmthforu94]

Well at least there is some polling. This is somewhat of a relief, as I thought it was a deadheat BEFORE the Democrats meddling, so hearing that Marshall is still supposedly ahead gives me some relief.

There was about a week there in late July were anti-Marshall ads dominated the airwaves. Now pro-Marshall groups have stepped in more and I would say most favor Marshall to Kobach overall. Hopefully that helps bring some voters back in for Marshall in the final days.

Doubtful TRUMP endorses at this point, but hey he endorsed super late in '18, so who knows?!

[SnowLabrador]

Prediction: Marshall narrowly wins, and then easily defeats Bollier in the general election.

[brucejoel99]

Prediction: KKKobach narrowly wins, and is then narrowly defeated by Bollier in the general election.

[brucejoel99]

Recent NRSC poll has 33/30 Marshall and their polling had Marshall comfortably ahead till Schumer's PAC blasted him.

"Comfortably ahead" is a useless classification, but if the Dem meddling brought the race from (presumptively) a clear Marshall lead to a virtual tie, I'd imagine Kobach will lead in the same-day vote.

What do you think the end result ends up being?

[S019]

This race will probably be competitive with either Kobach or Marshall, I'd say Tilt R with Marshall and Lean D with Kobach, I'm thinking Kobach wins the primary, Marshall is one of this cycle's most overrated candidates.

[LimoLiberal]

Many people are saying Marshall is an abortionist Never Trumper who loves John Kasich and Mitt Romney.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Tons of anti-Marshall ads; I stand by my earlier projection the Hamilton will squeak out a plurality victory.

[tmthforu94]

Tons of anti-Marshall ads; I stand by my earlier projection the Hamilton will squeak out a plurality victory.

Honestly if we had IRV and could rank the candidates, I'd probably put Lindstrom and Hamilton first in hopes Hamilton would take out the two weasels on top. As it stands, I'm just not convinced Hamitlon will come close enough, so voting Marshall to stop Kobach.

Hamilton strikes me as the most "Trumpy" candidate - wouldn't it be something if he endorsed him last second? That would make Tuesday night even more interesting.

[S019]

Many people are saying Marshall is an abortionist Never Trumper who loves John Kasich and Mitt Romney.

That's the message of a lot of the Sunflower State PAC ads, it'll be interesting, to see if the Democratic meddling paid off or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish they would poll KS and MT Senate more often we dont know what type of blue wave it will be without a KS or more MT Senate polls

[Hope For A New Era]

If Hamilton somehow wins this (unlikely), his weirdness combined with the Kansas moderate/conservative split will make November a complete wildcard.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-fear-kobach-primary-win-kansas-could-jeopardize-senate-gop-n1235673

NBC News profile on the Republican Primary, and the ramifications for control of the Senate if Kobach wins.

[Tender Branson]

Remember:

SurveyUSA will go into the field tomorrow in KS for "Election Twitter".

Assuming the AP calls a winner in the primary by tomorrow.

[chubbygummy]

Marshall will win.