KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 04:25:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 33 34 35 36 37 [38] 39 40 41 42 43 ... 46
Author Topic: KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins  (Read 82548 times)
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,333
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #925 on: August 04, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »
Damn, looks like Marshall is gonna win.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,044


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #926 on: August 04, 2020, 07:41:49 PM »
kobach lost johnson county by far too large a margin for him to have any chance.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #927 on: August 04, 2020, 07:43:03 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 07:41:49 PM
kobach lost johnson county by far too large a margin for him to have any chance.

That's 1 precinct in Johnson County, out of 513. Political leanings vary a lot geographically in the county.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #928 on: August 04, 2020, 07:43:54 PM »
Quote from: EastOfEden on August 04, 2020, 07:43:03 PM
Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 07:41:49 PM
kobach lost johnson county by far too large a margin for him to have any chance.

That's one precinct in Johnson County.

Its very likely the EV, unless the county had super-precincts.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,054
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #929 on: August 04, 2020, 07:44:36 PM »
I think the betting markets are reacting too strongly to the first 1% of precincts. That said, I'd rather be Marshall right now.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,044


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #930 on: August 04, 2020, 07:44:44 PM »
All i know is that predictit has basically called the rac.e
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #931 on: August 04, 2020, 07:46:42 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2020, 08:06:36 PM by EastOfEden »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on August 04, 2020, 07:43:54 PM
Quote from: EastOfEden on August 04, 2020, 07:43:03 PM
Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 07:41:49 PM
kobach lost johnson county by far too large a margin for him to have any chance.

That's one precinct in Johnson County.

Its very likely the EV, unless the county had super-precincts.

Well, someone done messed up in an office somewhere, because the site claims that only one precinct has reported.
Logged
Saruman
Rookie
**
Posts: 42


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #932 on: August 04, 2020, 07:49:56 PM »
We need to wait for more ED vote, I suspect that will be the more pro-Kobach segment.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #933 on: August 04, 2020, 07:59:28 PM »
Wow, didn't expect Hamilton to do this well.

Eh, Marshall appears competent enough.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #934 on: August 04, 2020, 08:01:56 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2020, 08:06:11 PM by EastOfEden »
Quote from: L.D. Smith on August 04, 2020, 07:59:28 PM
Wow, didn't expect Hamilton to do this well.

Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 08:03:20 PM
I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?

Extreme name-recognition. He's very well-known in the Kansas City area for his plumbing business's humorous television ads.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,044


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #935 on: August 04, 2020, 08:03:20 PM »
I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #936 on: August 04, 2020, 08:08:09 PM »
As excited as I am for this, my parents just arrived tonight so I won't be fully focused on this.

Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 08:03:20 PM
I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?
It is a very big business in the KC metro, Bob Hamilton is a household name.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #937 on: August 04, 2020, 08:08:44 PM »
Marshall wins Lyon County by 24%, fully reporting. Colyer only won it by 2%. Good numbers.
Logged
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #938 on: August 04, 2020, 08:10:43 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 04, 2020, 08:08:44 PM
Marshall wins Lyon County by 24%, fully reporting. Colyer only won it by 2%. Good numbers.

Doubt it's fully reporting given it's about 52% of 2018 totals gov primary vote
Logged
Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party
DANNT
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 370


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #939 on: August 04, 2020, 08:11:45 PM »
Quote from: EastOfEden on August 04, 2020, 08:01:56 PM
Quote from: L.D. Smith on August 04, 2020, 07:59:28 PM
Wow, didn't expect Hamilton to do this well.

Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 08:03:20 PM
I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?

Extreme name-recognition. He's very well-known in the Kansas City area for his plumbing business's humorous television ads.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #940 on: August 04, 2020, 08:12:43 PM »
Quote from: n1240 on August 04, 2020, 08:10:43 PM
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 04, 2020, 08:08:44 PM
Marshall wins Lyon County by 24%, fully reporting. Colyer only won it by 2%. Good numbers.

Doubt it's fully reporting given it's about 52% of 2018 totals gov primary vote
You're right, heavy absentee voting I imagine. It's fully reporting on the SoS site tho.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #941 on: August 04, 2020, 08:13:59 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 04, 2020, 08:03:20 PM
I have absolutely nothing against working class professions, but is owning a plumbing business really some huge accolade?

Has hamilton been some sort of philanthropist for kansas?

Not commenting on Hamilton specifically, but a wonderful former congressman from Illinois who previously ran his family's pest control company. Or the Jersey guy who was in the NFL. The car dealer from Virginia. Or how about a construction business owner from Vermont who won a State Senate seat in 2000? People who have no experience can become great public servants.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #942 on: August 04, 2020, 08:15:56 PM »
Just catching up with the numbers, what we're seeing so far is good for Marshall. He's outperforming Colyer's '18 numbers almost everywhere. I think Hamilton may have hurt Kobach more than Marshall.
Logged
Rhenna
Gabor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 625
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #943 on: August 04, 2020, 08:18:48 PM »
The general election is still competitive even with Marshall, just less so than with Kobach.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #944 on: August 04, 2020, 08:20:06 PM »
Roger Marshall
36,357   33.8%   

Kris Kobach
26,645   24.8   

Bob Hamilton
22,586   21.0

107,616 votes
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #945 on: August 04, 2020, 08:21:09 PM »


Things might still change if the count goes long. The true GOP partisans and Kobach enthusiasts would obviously have followed Trump and stayed away from the advance polls. Maybe things get more interesting, or maybe Marshall stays confidently ahead.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #946 on: August 04, 2020, 08:21:51 PM »
Marshall is gonna win this seat
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,044


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #947 on: August 04, 2020, 08:23:34 PM »
kobach has no path to win

it may tighten, but it is 100% over.

they are popping the corks at marshall HQ
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #948 on: August 04, 2020, 08:30:24 PM »
Well, there goes a potential D pickup.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,054
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #949 on: August 04, 2020, 08:30:40 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on August 04, 2020, 08:30:24 PM
Well, there goes a potential D pickup.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 33 34 35 36 37 [38] 39 40 41 42 43 ... 46  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.