New PA Maps In Effect

[Gass3268]

Victory for America!

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[Gass3268]

Court gave them 25 days to draw a new map.

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[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/955526442640605184

crap crap crap crap

I have no faith in SCOTUS.

Attention: LimoLiberal (D?-VA) is concerned.

They didn't do it in Florida and they won't do it here. This is a state issue.

[Gass3268]

Woah, this is huge for PA redistricting precedent:

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[Gass3268]

Woah, this is huge for PA redistricting precedent:

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This should be the law nationwide.

Agreed, but amend it by adding "population or compliance with the Voting Rights Act"

[Gass3268]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

[Gass3268]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

[Gass3268]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

Florida was only 2 years ago and the partisan composition is exactly the same.

[Gass3268]

Looking at a lot of the different maps out there, my guess is that we end up with a 5-8-5 map (Dem-GOP-Toss Up).

1 - Philadelphia (Dem)
2 - Philadlephia (Dem)
3 - Northwest Pennsylvania (Erie) (GOP)
4 - South Central Pennsylvania (York/Gettysburg) (GOP)
5 - North Central Pennsylvania (State College) (GOP)
6 - Chester (Toss Up)
7 - Delaware (Dem)
8 - Bucks (Toss Up)
9 - West Central Pennsylvania (Johnstown/Indiana) (GOP)
10 - Northeast Pennsylvania (Williamsport) (GOP)
11 - East Central Pennsylvania (Harrisburg) (GOP)
12 - Pittsburgh Suburbs (GOP)
13 - Montgomery (Dem)
14 - Pittsburgh (Dem)
15 - Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Bethlehem) (Toss Up)
16 - Lancaster (GOP)
17 - Wyoming Valley (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) (Toss Up)
18 - Allegheny County + Pittsburgh Suburbs (Toss Up)

The only question to me is if the court will try to draw a toss up seat in Western PA and I personally think they will and Oryxslayer has shown that it is possible depending on how they draw the Pittsburgh based 14th. Worst case is they don't we get a 5-9-4.

[Gass3268]

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Stay cleared the SCOPA. Now on to the weaker federal argument.

[Gass3268]

I'm pretty sure this 5-4 decision will be instrumental in how this plays out in PA:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/06/29/supreme-court-arizona-congress-maps/27400015/

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Unless it's expedited, this could result in this getting pushed back to 2020.

[Gass3268]

United States Supreme Court told the PA GOP to F Off!

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[Gass3268]

Republicans in the state legislature now have 10 days to draw a new map and Governor Wolf said he will veto any new gerrymander.

[Gass3268]

Republicans in the state legislature now have 10 days to draw a new map and Governor Wolf said he will veto any new gerrymander.

Come on Wolf don't cave.

The main fear is Republicans working with machine Democrats in Philly to ensure that Philly keeps 3 seats, at the expense of a fair map.

[Gass3268]

If it does indeed go to the courts for the redraw, Professor Nathaniel Persily, has been appointed as an advisor by the court to assist in adopting a remedial congressional redistricting plan. Essentially, he will be the dude doing the redraw.

Announced details of the redistricting

[Gass3268]

If it does indeed go to the courts for the redraw, Professor Nathaniel Persily, has been appointed as an advisor by the court to assist in adopting a remedial congressional redistricting plan. Essentially, he will be the dude doing the redraw.

Announced details of the redistricting

Any idea how he will draw the maps?

Looking at his Twitter account he is a law professor at Stanford and he seems to be very interested in making sure Facebook/Twitter doesn't spread legit Fake News, into campaign finance reform and has a bunch of Mother Jones, Buzzfeed and Atlantic retweets.

[Gass3268]

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Since SCOTUS denied the stay, isn't that the end of it?  Or could they petition for a stay on some other grounds?

It's Pennsylvania Republicans, I'm sure next stop is The Hague

Before the stay they:

Denied precinct and voter data to the court -  this was a formality, they simply went to the dems. Hell, we use DRA which has similar, albeit old data. 

Called upon one and potentially two of the Dem judges to recuse themselves due to statements made during their judicial campaigns.

Generally called the court order illegal whenever possible.

With only ten days on the clock, one would think that they would refuse to pass any map, and instead dig in their heals and try to deny the court a sense of legitimacy.

They've really poisoned the well about possibility working with Democrats in the legislature, Governor Wolf and the Commonwealth Court. They could piss them off to the point where the court tells Professor Nathaniel Persily to draw a map that punishes the Republicans as much as possible while sticking to their original parameters.

[Gass3268]

Judging by how redistricting played out in other split states (and even a state like Florida, with unified control), it's unlikely that Republicans can agree on a map that Wolf + PASC would OK.

Generally speaking, I think most lawmakers who are used to getting their way in redistricting are just not capable of drawing a fair map. They are too greedy and unfamiliar with the concept of not gaming the system. The reaction to this ruling kind of shows that. Instead of just saying, "ah well, we had a brutal gerrymander for most of the decade, let's just get this over with," they instead flail around and start cooking up desperate legal schemes/appeals and even fking impeachment for gods sakes.

Just wait until the PASC overturns the legislative maps, and a bipartisan commission where ties are broken by the PASC is put together to do the redraw

You are essentially correct:

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Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

[Gass3268]

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

Probably one of the biggest design flaws of our system from the get-go is letting lawmakers draw these maps. It should have been obvious even back then what would happen. Legislators, after all, are basically tasked with picking exactly who goes in each district. It's just a recipe for corruption.

Now compare that to people like the PAGOP, who have spoiled themselves over 2 decades of map-making. It's like letting a heroin addict steal a kilo of dope, watching them get high for months, then telling them they have to return what they have left. Hah, yeah, sure, they'll definitely do that! More like you'll have to pry that dope from their cold, dead hands. Likewise, the PASC is going to have to create a map over the incessant whining of these gerrymandering-addicted Republicans.

Gerrymandering has been around since the first Congress. James Madison, essentially the father of the Constitution, was almost the first victim of Gerrymandering. You also have to remember there was no principle of one person, one vote yet and you had districts with crazy differences in some populations.

[Gass3268]

Pa. Supreme Court releases gerrymandering opinion: 2011 map violates 'free and equal' elections

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pennsylvania/pa-supreme-court-releases-gerrymandering-opinion-2011-map-violates-free-and-equal-elections-20180207.html?mobi=true

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Majority opinion: http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-1-2018majorityopinion.pdf?cb=1
Concurring and dissenting opinion: http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-1-2018concdissopinion.pdf?cb=1
Dissenting opinions: One and two

Baer's opinion explains why the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is violating due process and the US Constitution Elections clause.

Would that be the opinion that failed to persuade the majority?

And failed to persuade Justice Alito?

[Gass3268]

Some fun in order to help bring down the tensions a bit in this thread:

[Gass3268]

Here is the new map:

[Gass3268]

I look forward to Governor Wolf's veto.

[Gass3268]

what happens if this map gets rejected?

This guy gets to draw a new map on behalf of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court

[Gass3268]

Here is the new map:

This map is defiantly a improvement from the current one, which is utterly disgraceful. Just from a quick glance, it looks like they made PA-07 more Democratic, while at the same time making PA-17 more Republican, and keeping everything else more or less the same.

Nah, I'm pretty sure the 17th actually moves to the left bit. Losing Schuylkill in exchange for Monroe and more of Lackawanna helps.