New PA Maps In Effect

[KingSweden]

There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

I have not seen this anywhere on Twitter or on DKE

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/scotus-denies-gop-lawmakers-attempt-to-delay-drawing-new-congressional-map-20180205.html

https://twitter.com/normative/status/960683507587670016




Scary. FWIW, it would take practically every Republican Senator to vote to remove them, and I'm not yet convinced they can make that happen. Impeaching judges for ruling against a brazenly gerrymandered map is a big f'ing deal.

Reading between the lines it sounds like this is some dude blasting this out.

That said, I do wish the PASCT would release the opinion.

[Virginiá]

Reading between the lines it sounds like this is some dude blasting this out.

That said, I do wish the PASCT would release the opinion.

That is my initial read, but it's enough to make me nervous because as we all know, Republicans from other states have reacted pretty drastically to unfavorable rulings themselves. North Carolina Republicans are currently toying with the idea of ending judicial elections entirely just because they lost a few cases under a 4-3 Democratic Supreme Court majority. I think Arizona Republicans had tried to remove someone from their redistricting commission as well.

Republicans are losing their damn minds, and all in the pursuit of power. As if using a rigged Congressional map for 3 of the decade's 5 elections wasn't good enough for them.

[DrScholl]

Arizona Republicans in the State Senate did impeach the chair of the redistricting commission, but that was almost immediately overturned.

[Sestak]

There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

Are you ing kidding me!

[morgieb]

My attempt at the replacement Pennsylvania map:



Closer views of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia:





Not 100% sure on appropriate deviations. The largest is 6,793. Most of SEPA is <1,000, but the ones that use whole counties are generally a bit higher.

So:

PA-1 - now clearly based on North-Eastern Philadelphia. Majority-minority on total population but majority white on VAP. D+24, obviously Safe D.

PA-2 - the black district at 65% of total population and 61% of VAP. D+42, and one of the safest districts in the whole country for the Dems.

PA-3 - with the seat taking in the whole of Erie, Obama actually won the seat back in 2008. Has trended right since then, clocking in at R+8. Might be worth watching this year, but Kelly should be safe.

PA-4 - York and surrounds. R+17, not much to say here.

PA-5 - Central Pennsylvania. Interestingly Obama 08 didn't do all that badly here, but the seat has trended quite a bit since then, now a very solid R+16.

PA-6 - there a few ways to draw the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area, I went with the preferred Democratic option with combining Chester County and Reading. D+2, and trending Democratic too. Costello is a strong incumbent, but he may struggle here.

PA-7 - I wasn't thrilled with having chunks of three counties, but alas the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area is just a little too big for 2 seats, ditto Philadelphia. At D+12, this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

PA-8 - essentially unchanged, being based on Bucks County. R+1, this is clearly a toss-up this year.

PA-9 - compact SWPA seat based on Westmoreland County and Johnstown. At R+19, this is the safest Republican seat in Pennsylvania, though I think if this seat was replicated historically the Dems probably held it at the Congressional level until 2010.

PA-10 - effectively the bits of NEPA that isn't the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Metro. Similar to the seat that Chris Carney held between 2006-10, but at R+17.5, this is clearly going to elect a Republican Congressman now.

PA-11 - Harrisburg and surrounds. At R+9 the Republicans are the clear favourites here, but if Tim Holden was to make a comeback (and he's not too old and is still involved in Pennsylvanian politics so it's not quite ASB.....) this could be interesting given that it's an open seat.

PA-12 - Northern Allegheny County and Butler County. R+6, but trending left and unlike demographically similar seats such as VA-7 and GA-6 that have been talked up as possible Dem upsets there is probably strong Democratic infrastructure here.

PA-13 - now a compact MontCo seat. Still solidly Democratic at D+8, though I could see Boyle running elsewhere (PA-1 with Brady gone, perhaps?)

PA-14 - Southern Allegheny County including Pittsburgh proper. At D+12, this is solidly Democratic.

PA-15 - Lehigh Valley, now more compact. R+1, but Hillary underperformed here and the seat is now open, so as a pick-up opportunity this now looks very promising.

PA-16 - Lancaster and the non-Reading bits of Berks. At R+12, any chances of a Democratic pickup have evaporated.

PA-17 - Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. D+0, but again Hillary cratered here and there is a incumbent Democratic congressman. Interesting this is safer than the current PA-17 given it was drawn as a vote-sink.

PA-18 - rural SWPA. R+11, but very ancestrally Democratic downballot, and even today Democrats compete here. Would be very winnable for a Blue Dog.

[Oryxslayer]

My attempt at the replacement Pennsylvania map:



Closer views of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia:





Not 100% sure on appropriate deviations. The largest is 6,793. Most of SEPA is <1,000, but the ones that use whole counties are generally a bit higher.

So:

PA-1 - now clearly based on North-Eastern Philadelphia. Majority-minority on total population but majority white on VAP. D+24, obviously Safe D.

PA-2 - the black district at 65% of total population and 61% of VAP. D+42, and one of the safest districts in the whole country for the Dems.

PA-3 - with the seat taking in the whole of Erie, Obama actually won the seat back in 2008. Has trended right since then, clocking in at R+8. Might be worth watching this year, but Kelly should be safe.

PA-4 - York and surrounds. R+17, not much to say here.

PA-5 - Central Pennsylvania. Interestingly Obama 08 didn't do all that badly here, but the seat has trended quite a bit since then, now a very solid R+16.

PA-6 - there a few ways to draw the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area, I went with the preferred Democratic option with combining Chester County and Reading. D+2, and trending Democratic too. Costello is a strong incumbent, but he may struggle here.

PA-7 - I wasn't thrilled with having chunks of three counties, but alas the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area is just a little too big for 2 seats, ditto Philadelphia. At D+12, this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

PA-8 - essentially unchanged, being based on Bucks County. R+1, this is clearly a toss-up this year.

PA-9 - compact SWPA seat based on Westmoreland County and Johnstown. At R+19, this is the safest Republican seat in Pennsylvania, though I think if this seat was replicated historically the Dems probably held it at the Congressional level until 2010.

PA-10 - effectively the bits of NEPA that isn't the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Metro. Similar to the seat that Chris Carney held between 2006-10, but at R+17.5, this is clearly going to elect a Republican Congressman now.

PA-11 - Harrisburg and surrounds. At R+9 the Republicans are the clear favourites here, but if Tim Holden was to make a comeback (and he's not too old and is still involved in Pennsylvanian politics so it's not quite ASB.....) this could be interesting given that it's an open seat.

PA-12 - Northern Allegheny County and Butler County. R+6, but trending left and unlike demographically similar seats such as VA-7 and GA-6 that have been talked up as possible Dem upsets there is probably strong Democratic infrastructure here.

PA-13 - now a compact MontCo seat. Still solidly Democratic at D+8, though I could see Boyle running elsewhere (PA-1 with Brady gone, perhaps?)

PA-14 - Southern Allegheny County including Pittsburgh proper. At D+12, this is solidly Democratic.

PA-15 - Lehigh Valley, now more compact. R+1, but Hillary underperformed here and the seat is now open, so as a pick-up opportunity this now looks very promising.

PA-16 - Lancaster and the non-Reading bits of Berks. At R+12, any chances of a Democratic pickup have evaporated.

PA-17 - Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. D+0, but again Hillary cratered here and there is a incumbent Democratic congressman. Interesting this is safer than the current PA-17 given it was drawn as a vote-sink.

PA-18 - rural SWPA. R+11, but very ancestrally Democratic downballot, and even today Democrats compete here. Would be very winnable for a Blue Dog.

Max allowed div is like 3k or a little higher in PA,  +/- 0.5% of the district. Any higher is illegal. Mind putting the div for each seat in your responce.

Also Imgur hosting doesn't work here, so I can't see the images.

[Oryxslayer]

Also does anyone know how to calculate any of the following in GIS software?

Roeck Compactness
Schwartzberg Compactness
Polsby-Popper Compactness
Population Polygon

Some of these have brief wiki articles, but nothing more.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

This is the modern day Republican party. Such a blatant disregard for the rule of law and the constitution.

[jimrtex]

If it does indeed go to the courts for the redraw, Professor Nathaniel Persily, has been appointed as an advisor by the court to assist in adopting a remedial congressional redistricting plan. Essentially, he will be the dude doing the redraw.

Announced details of the redistricting

Any idea how he will draw the maps?

The Supreme Court has said that he should draw a plan based on evidence heard by the Commonwealth Court. The Commonwealth Court had originally refused to hear the case based on the pending federal cases (Wisconsin, Maryland, North Carolina). The Commonwealth Court then held hearings and reported that the map was not in violation of any federal precedents. The Supreme Court then said that that the map "plainly and palpably" violates the state constitution, and that a full opinion would be issued (this was 15 days ago). I don't know where they pulled the standard of not splitting counties, cities, etc. came from in the Pennsylvania constitution.

The Supreme Court has ordered the parties to produce the maps that their expert witnesses produced. The plaintiffs have submitted 500 maps that one "expert" produced on a thumb drive. They did not produce the one trillion maps that another expert produced.

It is conceivable that the master will not draw a map[, but instead devise a scoring mechanism to rank the 500 plans. I doubt that there will be an opportunity for any public input.

[Oryxslayer]

Also does anyone know how to calculate any of the following in GIS software?

Roeck Compactness
Schwartzberg Compactness
Polsby-Popper Compactness
Population Polygon

Some of these have brief wiki articles, but nothing more.

For Roeck, you will need to find the longest axis in the drawn district [basically the line between the two extreme points of the district] and then use the length of that axis as the diameter for a circle. Take the area of the district and divide by the area of the circle; the closer to 1, the more compact. If the quotient is less than .4, it is too noncompact. 

Schwartzberg is rather inconsistent and defective, but to calculate it, you need to create an adjusted perimeter connecting [using straight lines] points on the district boundary where three [or more] census tracts [from any district] meet, and then divide that perimeter by the circumference of a circle with an area equal to the area of the district. The closer to 1 the quotient is, the better. A quotient greater than 1.67 is generally noncompact.

Polsby-Popper has a pretty understandable Wikipedia article. I've never heard of the population polygon test.

Yeah, I got the gist of it from a few searches, it was rather the calculations for it in GIS that I was wondering about. I have since found some ways to work out a few of them - Pop Polygon and Complex Polygon are just version of minimum Hull. Something that I have found is ofc Popper and Schwartz produce some weird numbers in PA due to the number of river/mountain borders, along with weird city lines like Pittsburgh. For example, the 18th I posted two pages back has a Swartz score of around 1.9 due to it following rivers and city lines rather than straight ones.

Also, I'm fairly confident the city/count cut minimization has been put in place because PA requires it for HD/SD maps, and the court figured it was a good test to have in place for the redistricting.

[King Lear]

Is their any chance that Republicans can push off the redistricting until after 2018, or do you think with the SCOTUS decision it’s guaranteed to affect this years election?

[morgieb]

My attempt at the replacement Pennsylvania map:



Closer views of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia:





Not 100% sure on appropriate deviations. The largest is 6,793. Most of SEPA is <1,000, but the ones that use whole counties are generally a bit higher.

So:

PA-1 - now clearly based on North-Eastern Philadelphia. Majority-minority on total population but majority white on VAP. D+24, obviously Safe D.

PA-2 - the black district at 65% of total population and 61% of VAP. D+42, and one of the safest districts in the whole country for the Dems.

PA-3 - with the seat taking in the whole of Erie, Obama actually won the seat back in 2008. Has trended right since then, clocking in at R+8. Might be worth watching this year, but Kelly should be safe.

PA-4 - York and surrounds. R+17, not much to say here.

PA-5 - Central Pennsylvania. Interestingly Obama 08 didn't do all that badly here, but the seat has trended quite a bit since then, now a very solid R+16.

PA-6 - there a few ways to draw the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area, I went with the preferred Democratic option with combining Chester County and Reading. D+2, and trending Democratic too. Costello is a strong incumbent, but he may struggle here.

PA-7 - I wasn't thrilled with having chunks of three counties, but alas the Chester/Berks/Lancaster area is just a little too big for 2 seats, ditto Philadelphia. At D+12, this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

PA-8 - essentially unchanged, being based on Bucks County. R+1, this is clearly a toss-up this year.

PA-9 - compact SWPA seat based on Westmoreland County and Johnstown. At R+19, this is the safest Republican seat in Pennsylvania, though I think if this seat was replicated historically the Dems probably held it at the Congressional level until 2010.

PA-10 - effectively the bits of NEPA that isn't the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Metro. Similar to the seat that Chris Carney held between 2006-10, but at R+17.5, this is clearly going to elect a Republican Congressman now.

PA-11 - Harrisburg and surrounds. At R+9 the Republicans are the clear favourites here, but if Tim Holden was to make a comeback (and he's not too old and is still involved in Pennsylvanian politics so it's not quite ASB.....) this could be interesting given that it's an open seat.

PA-12 - Northern Allegheny County and Butler County. R+6, but trending left and unlike demographically similar seats such as VA-7 and GA-6 that have been talked up as possible Dem upsets there is probably strong Democratic infrastructure here.

PA-13 - now a compact MontCo seat. Still solidly Democratic at D+8, though I could see Boyle running elsewhere (PA-1 with Brady gone, perhaps?)

PA-14 - Southern Allegheny County including Pittsburgh proper. At D+12, this is solidly Democratic.

PA-15 - Lehigh Valley, now more compact. R+1, but Hillary underperformed here and the seat is now open, so as a pick-up opportunity this now looks very promising.

PA-16 - Lancaster and the non-Reading bits of Berks. At R+12, any chances of a Democratic pickup have evaporated.

PA-17 - Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. D+0, but again Hillary cratered here and there is a incumbent Democratic congressman. Interesting this is safer than the current PA-17 given it was drawn as a vote-sink.

PA-18 - rural SWPA. R+11, but very ancestrally Democratic downballot, and even today Democrats compete here. Would be very winnable for a Blue Dog.

Max allowed div is like 3k or a little higher in PA,  +/- 0.5% of the district. Any higher is illegal. Mind putting the div for each seat in your responce.

Also Imgur hosting doesn't work here, so I can't see the images.

Whoops, there were a couple of seats that were illegal. Changed a few things accordingly. Has no real partisan effect though.

So new images:





As for the deviations:

PA-1 (blue): 142
PA-2 (green): -55
PA-3 (purple): 180
PA-4 (red): 1,900
PA-5 (gold): 1,961
PA-6 (teal): -346
PA-7 (grey): -380
PA-8 (slate blue): 836
PA-9 (cyan): -2,124
PA-10 (pink): -216
PA-11 (chartreuse): 1,991
PA-12 (cornflower blue): -2,171
PA-13 (dark salmon): -643
PA-14 (olive): -1,995
PA-15 (orange): 1,947
PA-16 (lime): 511
PA-17 (dark slate blue): -491
PA-18 (yellow): -1,052

In terms of partisan impact, let's say:

Safe D - 5
Lean D - 0
Toss-up - 4
Lean R - 4
Safe R - 5

[Holmes]

Is their any chance that Republicans can push off the redistricting until after 2018, or do you think with the SCOTUS decision it’s guaranteed to affect this years election?

SCOTUS denied a stay. The legislature only has less than a week to come up with something, but they seem unwilling. If they don't come up with anything or Wolf vetoes their map, the state Supreme Court takes over and redraws.

[Virginiá]

Judging by how redistricting played out in other split states (and even a state like Florida, with unified control), it's unlikely that Republicans can agree on a map that Wolf + PASC would OK.

Generally speaking, I think most lawmakers who are used to getting their way in redistricting are just not capable of drawing a fair map. They are too greedy and unfamiliar with the concept of not gaming the system. The reaction to this ruling kind of shows that. Instead of just saying, "ah well, we had a brutal gerrymander for most of the decade, let's just get this over with," they instead flail around and start cooking up desperate legal schemes/appeals and even fking impeachment for gods sakes.

Just wait until the PASC overturns the legislative maps, and a bipartisan commission where ties are broken by the PASC is put together to do the redraw

[Gass3268]

Judging by how redistricting played out in other split states (and even a state like Florida, with unified control), it's unlikely that Republicans can agree on a map that Wolf + PASC would OK.

Generally speaking, I think most lawmakers who are used to getting their way in redistricting are just not capable of drawing a fair map. They are too greedy and unfamiliar with the concept of not gaming the system. The reaction to this ruling kind of shows that. Instead of just saying, "ah well, we had a brutal gerrymander for most of the decade, let's just get this over with," they instead flail around and start cooking up desperate legal schemes/appeals and even fking impeachment for gods sakes.

Just wait until the PASC overturns the legislative maps, and a bipartisan commission where ties are broken by the PASC is put together to do the redraw

You are essentially correct:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

[Nyvin]

Judging by how redistricting played out in other split states (and even a state like Florida, with unified control), it's unlikely that Republicans can agree on a map that Wolf + PASC would OK.

Generally speaking, I think most lawmakers who are used to getting their way in redistricting are just not capable of drawing a fair map. They are too greedy and unfamiliar with the concept of not gaming the system. The reaction to this ruling kind of shows that. Instead of just saying, "ah well, we had a brutal gerrymander for most of the decade, let's just get this over with," they instead flail around and start cooking up desperate legal schemes/appeals and even fking impeachment for gods sakes.

Just wait until the PASC overturns the legislative maps, and a bipartisan commission where ties are broken by the PASC is put together to do the redraw

You are essentially correct:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

They should look at the map I made on page 7 :-P

I knew "least change" was going to come up at some point or another, it always does.

[Virginiá]

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

Probably one of the biggest design flaws of our system from the get-go is letting lawmakers draw these maps. It should have been obvious even back then what would happen. Legislators, after all, are basically tasked with picking exactly who goes in each district. It's just a recipe for corruption.

Now compare that to people like the PAGOP, who have spoiled themselves over 2 decades of map-making. It's like letting a heroin addict steal a kilo of dope, watching them get high for months, then telling them they have to return what they have left. Hah, yeah, sure, they'll definitely do that! More like you'll have to pry that dope from their cold, dead hands. Likewise, the PASC is going to have to create a map over the incessant whining of these gerrymandering-addicted Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

Probably one of the biggest design flaws of our system from the get-go is letting lawmakers draw these maps. It should have been obvious even back then what would happen. Legislators, after all, are basically tasked with picking exactly who goes in each district. It's just a recipe for corruption.

Now compare that to people like the PAGOP, who have spoiled themselves over 2 decades of map-making. It's like letting a heroin addict steal a kilo of dope, watching them get high for months, then telling them they have to return what they have left. Hah, yeah, sure, they'll definitely do that! More like you'll have to pry that dope from their cold, dead hands. Likewise, the PASC is going to have to create a map over the incessant whining of these gerrymandering-addicted Republicans.

Gerrymandering has been around since the first Congress. James Madison, essentially the father of the Constitution, was almost the first victim of Gerrymandering. You also have to remember there was no principle of one person, one vote yet and you had districts with crazy differences in some populations.

[Oryxslayer]

Judging by how redistricting played out in other split states (and even a state like Florida, with unified control), it's unlikely that Republicans can agree on a map that Wolf + PASC would OK.

Generally speaking, I think most lawmakers who are used to getting their way in redistricting are just not capable of drawing a fair map. They are too greedy and unfamiliar with the concept of not gaming the system. The reaction to this ruling kind of shows that. Instead of just saying, "ah well, we had a brutal gerrymander for most of the decade, let's just get this over with," they instead flail around and start cooking up desperate legal schemes/appeals and even fking impeachment for gods sakes.

Just wait until the PASC overturns the legislative maps, and a bipartisan commission where ties are broken by the PASC is put together to do the redraw

You are essentially correct:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

Reading between the lines here says they want to toss the 7th, try to keep the 15th as R as possible while keeping it compact, and give Cartwright a seat he could never win. AKA, the map is DOA, and this is a move that is simply designed to diminish the courts legitimacy.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically they are going to make as little changes as possible, but try to fit in the requirements made by the PASC, while only having now 8 days to do it. No way Governor Wolf will go for that.

Source

Probably one of the biggest design flaws of our system from the get-go is letting lawmakers draw these maps. It should have been obvious even back then what would happen. Legislators, after all, are basically tasked with picking exactly who goes in each district. It's just a recipe for corruption.

Now compare that to people like the PAGOP, who have spoiled themselves over 2 decades of map-making. It's like letting a heroin addict steal a kilo of dope, watching them get high for months, then telling them they have to return what they have left. Hah, yeah, sure, they'll definitely do that! More like you'll have to pry that dope from their cold, dead hands. Likewise, the PASC is going to have to create a map over the incessant whining of these gerrymandering-addicted Republicans.

I've used drugs as a metaphor for this process before because it works so well.  If you haven't yet, I suggest you check out the 538 redistricting podcast on California - the ferocity incumbents fought to keep the commission out of existence, and then try and secretly influence the map once the commission became law, can only be described as an addiction.

[King Lear]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

[junior chįmp]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

It's looking really bad for the Democrats. If this continues, they'll most likely also fail to gain the House in 9 months

[KingSweden]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

It's looking really bad for the Democrats. If this continues, they'll most likely also fail to gain the House in 9 months

This is the funniest goddamn thing I’ve read on Atlas in ages.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

Democrats have actually managed to gerrymander PA even harder against themselves, leading to no D pickups and R's to pick up Cartwell's district.

[Oryxslayer]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

If you want a actual responce though, we really don't know what the map will look like. Here is what will happen next:

PA republicans will put up their minimal change map that will do little to solve the underlying problems. It passes both chambers. The maps are then vetoed by Wolf. There is an outside chance of the philly dems caving like they did in 2011, but I doubt it. The recent corruption trials have destroyed the power of the machine, Brady is retireing, and if the Dems hold the line they actually get something better. In 2011, if the dems didn't cooperate with the Reps, they would have been ignored by the trifecta. Now, if they don't work, the court gives dems a better map. Even if the map does go over Wolf's veto, it won't be accepted by the supreme court, so both scenarios arrive at the same point. The court appointed master will draw maps, and they will go into effect.

The question will be what the legislature does once the court begins to draw their map. The Republicans have tried to throw up hurdles whenever possible, so I doubt we have seen the end of the dirty tacrics.