New PA Maps In Effect

[jimrtex]

I ask this question not to be a smart-ass, but because while many state constitutions don't have explicit language about redistricting, they do have language about guaranteeing a right to vote, equal and fair access to suffrage, a republican form of government, democracy, and other broad and variably interpreted principles which Americans adhere to in theory. If you gerrymander a map so that a majority of voters choose Democrats, or a majority choose Republicans, or maybe they split, but you keep getting the same Republicans no matter what, it's not hard to see how you are violating the principles of democracy embodied in those constitutional provisions. That may not satisfy a literal search for the words "district" but it serves the purpose of the courts and the constitution well.

If you go to the polls and are told you can't vote because you have two t's in your name you are denied the right to vote. If you go to vote and don't like the candidates that is not denying you a right to vote.

[Gass3268]

Here is the new map:

[morgieb]

Here is the new map:

Surely that makes too many county splits? The Philly metro in particular looks a total mess.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is the new map:

They're not even trying LOL

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Splitting Allegheny three ways might not get past the court. But it does look a lot cleaner than the current map.

[krazen1211]

I approve of the map the legislature drew for Congressional elections.

[Strudelcutie4427]

It’s alright but I don’t like the snakyness of 3 and 11, splitting Allegheny 3 times and splitting Crawford. Anyone got PVIs on these? I personally woulda been a bit more aiming for a few swingy clearly not ugly gerrymanders which is better than leaving it to a liberal college professor drawing it

And atleast the Mess that 17 was and the Goofy kicking Donald Duck is gone

[Gass3268]

I look forward to Governor Wolf's veto.

[cvparty]

what happens if this map gets rejected?

[Gass3268]

what happens if this map gets rejected?

This guy gets to draw a new map on behalf of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court

[Oryxslayer]

It’s alright but I don’t like the snakyness of 3 and 11, splitting Allegheny 3 times and splitting Crawford. Anyone got PVIs on these?

The Allegheny tripple cut is fine, if we are going for cut minimization, ideally s many chops as possible should be pushed into Allegheny. Similarly, the Crawford split is fine, I believe it follows the French Creek so is a totally natural division. More inexcusable is the shape of the 7th and how the first still spirals out of the city.

I believe that there are 15 counties cut. Way too many in my eyes, hell the DKE map only chopped 12. This feels like a rookie map where they drew one district at a time, rather than nest-and-chop.

[King Lear]

Here is the new map:

This map is defiantly a improvement from the current one, which is utterly disgraceful. Just from a quick glance, it looks like they made PA-07 more Democratic, while at the same time making PA-17 more Republican, and keeping everything else more or less the same.

[Gass3268]

Here is the new map:

This map is defiantly a improvement from the current one, which is utterly disgraceful. Just from a quick glance, it looks like they made PA-07 more Democratic, while at the same time making PA-17 more Republican, and keeping everything else more or less the same.

Nah, I'm pretty sure the 17th actually moves to the left bit. Losing Schuylkill in exchange for Monroe and more of Lackawanna helps.

[King Lear]

Is their any way anybody can calculate the PVI for the districts in this map?

[LimoLiberal]

Is their any way anybody can calculate the PVI for the districts in this map?

I'm currently doing 17 and 15 in DRA. I'll tell y'all their approximate in a few minutes.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

PA-11 is R+8
PA-15 is R+1 (R+071 to be exact)

[Oryxslayer]

Overall analysis: exactly what we expected from the Republicans a week ago. The 7th gets chucked, albeit in a way that makes you puke, and the 6th is fortified. The 15th becomes the district everyone expected it to - with is R+0.5. The 18th becomes even more R killing Conner Lambs hopes of reelection if he wins. The 17th becomes a tiny bit more Democratic, but still has a bunch of historically red counties in it.

So, Veto it is.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

For everyone using DRA, be sure you selected the second option on the Map select screen. The first option that is auto-chosen has only 1/3 of precincts with PVI data.

[morgieb]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

For everyone using DRA, be sure you selected the second option on the Map select screen. The first option that is auto-chosen has only 1/3 of precincts with PVI data.

Yeah the first time I attempted a map of Pennsylvania I fell for that mistake. Was very confused as to why PA-15 was R+6 (it should be R+1).

I wonder if that PA-11 could be winnable for the right kind of Democrat. Tim Holden, come on down?

[Oryxslayer]

As Dave Wasserman puts it, this map is simply a less aggressive GOP gerrymander that sacrifices PA-07. Aka, this is an auto-veto. I also don't see any reason why the Dems would side with the Republicans to break Wolf's veto for this map, there is a 100% chance they get something better from the special master.

[Gass3268]

As Dave Wasserman puts it, this map is simply a less aggressive GOP gerrymander that sacrifices PA-07. Aka, this is an auto-veto. I also don't see any reason why the Dems would side with the Republicans to break Wolf's veto for this map, there is a 100% chance they get something better from the special master.

Especially with Brady no longer needing his special Philly based district.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

For everyone using DRA, be sure you selected the second option on the Map select screen. The first option that is auto-chosen has only 1/3 of precincts with PVI data.

oh thank you.

Apparently I don't have the right PVIs, but I can tell you that PA-15 goes from 52-46 Obama 2008 district to a 56-43 win. I'm certain it wouldn't have been such a drastic shift in 2016 (the disparity between the conservative rural precincts and Lehigh/Northampton/Carbon leveled off more).

In fact, my super rough calculations have the new PA-15 going somewhere around 162,000 Trump to 156,000 for Hillary. It would become shift from a 51.8-44.2 Trump district to a 49-47 Trump district.

[morgieb]

As Dave Wasserman puts it, this map is simply a less aggressive GOP gerrymander that sacrifices PA-07. Aka, this is an auto-veto. I also don't see any reason why the Dems would side with the Republicans to break Wolf's veto for this map, there is a 100% chance they get something better from the special master.

If Brady was still around I could see him rounding up some machine Democrats in Philly by the security of 3 Philly based seats, but as it is....

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

Wait I have it as D+3.7. I'm also pretty sure I got the Luzerne precincts fairly accurate.

For everyone using DRA, be sure you selected the second option on the Map select screen. The first option that is auto-chosen has only 1/3 of precincts with PVI data.

oh thank you.

Apparently I don't have the right PVIs, but I can tell you that PA-15 goes from 52-46 Obama 2008 district to a 56-43 win. I'm certain it wouldn't have been such a drastic shift in 2016 (the disparity between the conservative rural precincts and Lehigh/Northampton/Carbon leveled off more).

My super rough calculations have the new PA-15 going somewhere around 162,000 Trump to 156,000 for Hillary. It would become shift from a 51.8-44.2 Trump district to a 49-47 Trump district.

yeah pretty much every map that was posted here had that incarnation of PA-15 - it is probably going to be what the district looks like in the special masters plan. To my knowledge, the new seat has a CPVI from DRA of around R+0.6.