NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Gass3268]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

snip

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

Huh? 75,000 people voted early in Nevada compared to 84,000 people who caucused in 2016. That means that we are already to 89.28% of the total caucus vote of 2016.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1231266515103543298?s=20

[Gass3268]

Looks like turnout is gonna surge past 2016.

[Gass3268]

Bold Prediction: We are don't get any results today.

[Gass3268]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC (Steve Kornacki) said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

So an exit poll?

[Gass3268]

51% say they're first time caucus-goers.

It appears that the real Bernie revolution only needed a state not entirely full of Karens to finally get off the ground. Somehow I'm not surprised that Sanders didn't quite go off in states full of middle aged white people.

Even though those were literally some of his best demographics in 2016.

[Gass3268]

From what I understand from David Chalian, the entrance poll results are only TODAYs voters.

Early voters excluded !

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1231306160998879232?s=20

[Gass3268]

ENTRANCE POLL
Sanders 34.8%
Buttigieg 14.9%
Biden 14.5%
Warren 11.7%
Klobuchar 10.5%
Steyer 8.5%
Gabbard 0.5%

No one else viable: Thats incredible.

With redistribution I would expect Buttigieg and Biden to get over 15%.

[Gass3268]

ENTRANCE POLL
Sanders 34.8%
Buttigieg 14.9%
Biden 14.5%
Warren 11.7%
Klobuchar 10.5%
Steyer 8.5%
Gabbard 0.5%

No one else viable: Thats incredible.

That doesn't have early voting in it.

Yes it does:

From what I understand from David Chalian, the entrance poll results are only TODAYs voters.

Early voters excluded !

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1231306160998879232?s=20

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Steve Kornacki is saying the exit/entrance poll is only early vote.

[Gass3268]

They are now getting today vote as well.

[Gass3268]

The only candidates viable at a Strip/Casino caucus are Bernie and Biden. Bigger group for Bernie "strongly in favor of Bernie" (on MSNBC). They are trying to get Warren people to come over, Warren was not viable.

Both Sanders and a lesser extent Biden have to like that picture.

[Gass3268]

The only candidates viable at a Strip/Casino caucus are Bernie and Biden. Bigger group for Bernie "strongly in favor of Bernie" (on MSNBC). They are trying to get Warren people to come over, Warren was not viable.

Both Sanders and a lesser extent Biden has to like that picture.

STOP TRYING TO MAKE BIDEN HAPPEN

It was a strong crowd for Biden, that's all I was saying. Sanders is obviously romping today.

[Gass3268]

There is zero evidence in American history that the suburbs dislike socialist candidates

Yes there is. A socialist has never been elected president genius.  Also Bernie is doing awful in the suburbs so far in this primary.

FDR is at least socialist, maybe even communist, and he is also the longest serving president ever.

FDR was not a communist, let alone a socialist. Some of his ideology was influenced by social democracy.

[Gass3268]

Need confirmation, but reading on twitter that Warren got 9% in the early vote, but 25% in the day of vote. Early vote banking before the debate might have really hurt her.

[Gass3268]

I'm muting SN2903 from the thread for several hours.

So now people get muted for hours for being against Bernie Sanders? This forum is showing it's bias. It's unfortunate that this bias is manifesting itself to oppress the voices of non-Bernie people on election day.

He's spamming the thread calling Sanders a communist. If he said it once and then laid out it would be fine, but he's derailing the thread.

[Gass3268]

As a Warren supporter, sigh:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1231321280395304964?s=20

[Gass3268]

Tie in Reno! Sanders drew a 2, Buttigieg a 3, Buttigieg wins!

[Gass3268]

Does Klobuchar drop out now?

She wants that Minnesota win.

[Gass3268]

Paris Casino actually went for Biden:

https://twitter.com/JackieValley/status/1231324233390669824?s=20

[Gass3268]

Seems like a mess in Henderson.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PhilipinDC/status/1231326093493166080?s=20

[Gass3268]

From NYT:

Reid Epstein, in Henderson, Nev. Just now

Final delegate count from Clark County Precinct 1391: Sanders 7, Biden 5, Warren 4. When Klobuchar wasn’t viable, all her supporters went to Warren.

[Gass3268]

Biden's getting killed outside of Clark County.

[Gass3268]

Before anyone complains why the networks haven't called anything yet, they are using the data they get from the NV Democratic Party and they so far are reporting 0%.