2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe its Rassmussen/Trafalager finally having believable results....

Biden+3 in Texas and Harrison +3 SC Trafalgar?

[SaneDemocrat]

Im not sure what to feel of this. its best its happends randomly. I also dont trust wasserman

Why?

[YE]

If history is any indication this sort of stuff like just hype to me. Show the polls and then we’ll talk.

[Ferguson97]

Hot take: It’s Biden+1 in Kansas

[Ferguson97]

My guess is Biden+1 in Kansas

[swf541]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

[Stockdale for Veep]

Crimson Tide fans give the Blue Wave a boost.

Jones +2

[mardigrappa]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

I don't know if they will care if it's one of those smaller states. I'm going to guess it either has to be a national poll, or simply texas, probably both? Unless biden was seriously leading in a notably red state that would force Trump to campaign there, then I don't think it is a smaller state since that could again be an outlier.

[Roll Roons]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

The more I think about it, Montana is a very real possibility. It's an important Senate race that has gotten surprisingly little polling.

[Alben Barkley]

I'll take it, but I'd *really* like to have similarly devastating polling five days before the election. Hopefully this trend continues, because we need a complete and utter collapse of Trump's campaign to rack up the largest margins in the EC and Senate races as possible.

How many times does it have to be said that the election is already happening and that this is not a normal year, let alone 2016? There is no time to turn things around for Trump. Anything he did would be too little, too late. And there is literally no reason to believe that he’ll improve anyway, when everything just keeps getting worse and worse for him. The bottom has totally fallen out.

[swf541]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

The more I think about it, Montana is a very real possibility. It's an important Senate race that has gotten surprisingly little polling.

Montana slipped my mind completely, would make sense

For a ragnarok tier reaction tho (I dont see this happening) but Alabama closish with Jones leading would be absolutely hilarious)

[kireev]

Here is my guess. It's going to be a Fox News poll (so WH cannot just discard it) of SC, which will show Trump only +4, but Harrison +2 after the recent debate with Graham.

[Kuumo]

I'm going to guess Biden +5 and Hegar +1 in Texas.

[Alben Barkley]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

[Alben Barkley]

Here is my guess. It's going to be a Fox News poll (so WH cannot just discard it) of SC, which will show Trump only +4, but Harrison +2 after the recent debate with Graham.

That would be anti-climactic to say the least. We’ve already had SC polls with Biden tied and Harrison leading by 2 in SC. I’d want to see them both ahead by mid-high single digits at least to live ip to the hype.

[Stuart98]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

[WD]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

Jones within 5?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

[Bootes Void]

Im not sure what to feel of this. its best its happends randomly. I also dont trust wasserman

Why?

Sometimes the best feeling is when it's an unexpected surprise in a good way of course.knowing in advance kinda's ruin the surprise

As for Wasserman, I would distrust any media pundit even if I agree with them but he is an asshole who only looks at politics as a game rather than life or death( but so do alot of people).

[Smash255]

Biden + 17 or more nationally?

Biden +5  in Georgia or Texas?

[TheLaRocca]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Why would Biden be improving in Mississippi even if he wins?

Seems to rural and given rural black turnout was down this time....not many educated whites either.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Why would Biden be improving in Mississippi even if he wins?

Seems to rural and given rural black turnout was down this time....not many educated whites either.

I expect at minimum mid 40s for Biden in MS this time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Why would Biden be improving in Mississippi even if he wins?

Seems to rural and given rural black turnout was down this time....not many educated whites either.

I expect at minimum mid 40s for Biden in MS this time.

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm gonna go Biden+5 in either Texas or South Carolina (or both?) with their respective Senate Democratic candidates leading.

As much as I would love a Blue Texas, I'd love Senator Jaime Harrison even more

[Dr. Arch]

As I've been noting over the past few days, national polls are usually leading indicators. So, a not-so-hot take would be that the new state polls will be in line with Biden +10-12, with all the implications that follow.