Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

I don't blame Steve here. It was definitely idiot donors who loved Comstock.
See I knew Comstock was basically Safe D but I didn't expect her to lose by 13 points I thought it would be upper single due to the 5 million they spent.

Stivers was head of the R Triple C. Generally speaking, he had final say on where the money was allocated. As this tweet shows this is rccc money flushed down the toilet helping Comstock in what everybody from both side saw was a doomed reelection campaign. Why on Earth should be held accountable for this?

Again, not that I'm complaining.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

I have a theory as to how Comstock got all that extra late money after the NRCC had already pulled their funds. If you remember, Comstock got those funds back right around the same time all the skeletons in Kavanaugh's closet came out. Comstock and Kavanaugh have been acquaintances/friends for at least 10-20 years through their prior work in the Bush administration. What if she had more dirt or could corroborate some of the allegations against Kavanugh? Not saying that he tried to rape her, but rather maybe a story from his prep school or college days was well known around their social circles. What if she threatens to take this public unless she gets more funds from the NRCC?

Probably didn't happen, but it's the best explanation I have.

Interesting, but even a Kavanagh hater like me thinks that's too far-fetched to give much credence.

Maybe another more Salient explanation is Kavanaugh's word suddenly became gold among Republican activist so a good word about Comstock here and there, even if past second hand from Cavanaugh, could have raised her vast sums of money.

For comparison's sake, think about how I candidate who is close to dr. Ford would have done if she got the word out directly or through intermediaries that say Wexler was on her side and trustworthy?

Not saying it happened, but it does make a bit more sense then a possible blackmail angle. Though the ladder would obviously make some awesomely juicy fanfiction.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1060977811584962560

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061355448492744704

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061355448492744704

This was actually a big one for McSally, she won by 25%, but it was only a net gain of 400 votes. Unless she gets that kind of a margin from Maricopa as well, there's no path for her.

[Thatkat04]

Navajo County has a very large Mormon population. Would not shock me if this latest dump included a substantial amount of Mormons.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

[Virginiá]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

You got it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

You got it.

I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

You got it.

I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today.

Are we getting anything from Pima today, though? I thought we'd get more from Pima on Tuesday.

[adma]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically.

(Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.)

[Virginiá]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically.

(Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.)

Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials.

Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss.

[Gass3268]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically.

(Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.)

Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials.

Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss.

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

[Virginiá]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it cane from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Yup. Sinema is still ahead 18K

[Gass3268]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?