Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376

Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376

Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday.

Ugh, the waiting game...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376

Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday.

They might be including that in their estimates, but, if not, that's probably around 100,000 or so ballots.

Easily enough to make the difference. Has everyone forgotten the CA primaries this year where the Dem candidate totals increased by 2-3 points everywhere over the week after primary day, saving the Democrats from what looked like would be D shut-outs in CA-10 and CA-48?

[Gass3268]

Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff.

We are looking at until after Thanksgiving at the earliest, maybe early December.

[IceSpear]

Big relief that Tester survived.

McCaskill, Donnelly, Hubbell, and Cordray losing sucks, but it's nothing we wouldn't have expected a few weeks ago. It's looking like Florida (of course) was the only truly toxic spot for Dems.

[libertpaulian]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

[Storr]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

[IceSpear]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

You're really bad at this "predictions" thing. You should probably quit while you're behind.

[libertpaulian]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

[Storr]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

Plus Arizona's second Senate seat is open in 2020.

[Matty]

This board and twitter seem to be at odds regarding Arizona

Psephologists seem to think McSally will win by slight margin

[libertpaulian]

This board and twitter seem to be at odds regarding Arizona

Psephologists seem to think McSally will win by slight margin

Source?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

[Gass3268]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

As he should for wanting to ban condoms.

[IceSpear]

Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

It's only "crappy" in your eyes because your prediction was delusionally optimistic and completely out of the bounds of reality. Your posts on Tennessee were insufferable. Blackburn was always going to win.

[Virginiá]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Anyone have an idea as to the final results in GA-06 or GA-07? Currently, McBath is up 1.0% and Woodall is up 0.4%.

[MT Treasurer]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

[Storr]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

[lfromnj]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

Safe R if anybody but Bullock or Schweitzer. Lean with bullock and I have no ing clue with Schweitzer as he has more #populism in him than Jon tester.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Nevada did it again, with Rosen and Sisolak winning pretty handily and outperforming Clinton and Cortez Masto.

But I'm sure that in four years we'll all be panicking about Cortez Masto polling within the margin of error.

[Storr]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

Safe R if anybody but Bullock or Schweitzer. Lean with bullock and I have no ing clue with Schweitzer as he has more #populism in him than Jon tester.

Ideally I'd hope Bullock runs for reelection (or dare I say President?!), while Schweitzer runs for Senate. There'd be less to lose since Schweitzer doesn't currently hold a public office.

[IceSpear]

Nevada did it again, with Rosen and Sisolak winning pretty handily and outperforming Clinton and Cortez Masto.

But I'm sure that in four years we'll all be panicking about Cortez Masto polling within the margin of error.

Four years? I bet within a few months we'll get a SurveyMonkey or Reuters poll showing Trump up in Nevada, and Atlas will rate it lean R and the most likely Clinton state to flip because SURELY the polls won't overestimate Republicans in Nevada THIS TIME! The entire past decade was a fluke!

The ride never ends.

[MT Treasurer]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

Probably, but I think people really underestimate how vulnerable he is. He only won in 2014 because of a perfect storm (Baucus retirement, Walsh's plagiarism scandal, GOP wave, wrong Democratic candidate for the state, national Dems not prioritizing the race, etc.) which likely won’t be replicated in 2020. I have a hard time seeing him beating Steve Bullock, honestly.