Mini Tuesday results thread

[RI]

Basically the only possible way Bernie could score an upset in MI tonight is if turnout is really low due to Biden voters thinking the race is over.

[RI]

I don’t think Bernie is going to get his upset again.

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1237496113843896322?s=21

Wait. People in the comments are saying this exit poll is actually for Missouri and not Michigan.

Yeah, it's Missouri. This was the source:

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1237495350044360704

[RI]

The real question here is: Does Biden's strength in the WWC/Rural Dem counties translate to the general? If so, Trump is done.

Seems more like Sanders is particularly weak with WWC, not that Biden is particularly strong.

[RI]

Sanders has the first two votes in Idaho!

[RI]

Hard to see Bernie winning Idaho with these early numbers.

Nothing from Boise yet.

[RI]

Did anybody have a sweep (or near sweep) on his/her radar?

I called a sweep for my official prediction.

[RI]

Anyone know when we'll be getting more ND results?

[RI]

Close results in Washington on election night is good news for Sanders. Leftist and anti-establishment candidates tend to increase their numbers handsomely in the late count. Not to say this lighting will strike again, but Kshama Sawant overcame I think a double-digit election night loss in her last re-election.

While this is true, the moderate consolidation effect will also provide a huge boon to Biden going forward. Sanders may gain several points, but Biden will gain in leaps and bounds from other candidates.

[RI]

Tonight has been very disappointing from an election map perspective.

[RI]

Tonight has been very disappointing from an election map perspective.

Please elaborate on this "election map perspective."

I guess he means that the election map is boring if Biden sweeps everything.

Oh. LOL.
If that's the case, what does he think of the election map perspective on the R side?

I'm not even bothering with most of the R primaries. I had some mild hopes for some interesting regional patterns on the D side today.

[RI]

Finally got an update from ND. Sanders is still leading 44-32 with 32% in.

[RI]

Sanders won Teton County, ID.

[RI]

Sanders won Teton County, ID.

Boundary County, ID goes for Sanders. He's up to two counties now among those officially complete tonight.

[RI]

Sanders wins 54% in Latah County, Idaho (University of Idaho).

[RI]

Madison County, ID, home of BYU-Idaho, flipped to Biden at the last minute by six votes.

[RI]

Madison County, ID, home of BYU-Idaho, flipped to Biden at the last minute by six votes.

Would the college even be much of a presence in a democratic primary considering it is Mormon and as such probably about 90-10 Republican?

In my experience, young Mormons are quite fed up with the GOP and many are Bernie fans, even if they hold relatively conservative views on a number of issues.

[RI]

Sanders leads 47.5-39.3 in ND with 63% reporting.

[RI]

It looks like almost everything that's reported in ND is from the western part of the state. If there's an east-west split similar to SD 2016, then it's possible Biden could still win the state on the strength of Fargo/Grand Forks. Otherwise, Sanders may not be shut out completely.

[RI]

I must say -  I'm surprised at how easily Bernie went down this primary. The way he put up a fight with Hillary in 2016, I figured Biden would've been easy pickings.

Perhaps we overestimated Bernie's fans, who lost interest 4 years later. Or perhaps we underestimated the anti-Hillary vote last cycle.

I think we underestimated how weak Hillary actually was.

Youth voter support for Sanders 2020 is also lower than it was in 2016. I think a piece of his base lost interest in him 4 years later.

NO IT WASN'T!

Youth turnout is down this cycle (signifying their loss of interest in him 4 years later), and his percentages are lower among the ones who showed.
.
.
.

In Virginia ... the portion of the electorate made up of 17-29 year-old voters actually declined. And Sanders won 55% of Virginia's young voters this year — down from 69% in 2016.

A similar phenomenon played out in North Carolina ... where 17-29 year-old voters declined as a share of the electorate and their support for Sanders dropped from 69% to 57%.

And in Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Massachusetts, and Sanders' home state of Vermont, the youth vote also declined as a percentage of Democratic primary-goers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-admits-hes-not-inspiring-enough-young-voters-2020-3

Share of the electorate is not the same as turnout.

[RI]

Anyone know of an official source for ND results by polling site? I've only found NYT so far.

[RI]

There has been some new results from Washington.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1237832001799028736

Not sure if these are real, the SOS nor any county websites have any new results.

Yeah, they reverted back to the SOS total and what all the major networks are reporting.

It's not time for counties to update yet. King County updates at 4:30 PT.

[RI]

Let it be known that this map is the moment Bernie Sanders lost.

And with that, Michigan is officially Lean D in November.

Yes, Joe Biden winning 53% of Democrats is surely going to help him win the state as a whole. Let's also not forget he won 81% in Mississippi, I think that puts Mississippi into play am I right?

I'll construct some more faux narratives for you too.

 - Biden winning suburban counties (and especially suburban women) means he's a lock to continue the Democratic trends there.
 - Biden winning rural Trump counties means he'll flip back Obama/Trump voters.
 - Biden winning college towns means he'll turn out the young voters in November.

You can't lose, Biden has no flaws!

Being sarcastic doesn't make you look intelligent. The lack of any perceived protest vote against Biden is what makes the state look even better for him in November. Looking back there should have been some concern that Clinton performed so poorly in the primary in working class areas. It seems like Biden didn't have that problem in the primary this time.

I wouldn't say there wasn't any protest vote against Biden. Bloomberg scored a non-negligible share of the vote (>5%) in Macomb, St. Clair, Bay, and many of the northern counties which swung hard to Trump in 2016.

[RI]

Let it be known that this map is the moment Bernie Sanders lost.

And with that, Michigan is officially Lean D in November.

Yes, Joe Biden winning 53% of Democrats is surely going to help him win the state as a whole. Let's also not forget he won 81% in Mississippi, I think that puts Mississippi into play am I right?

I'll construct some more faux narratives for you too.

 - Biden winning suburban counties (and especially suburban women) means he's a lock to continue the Democratic trends there.
 - Biden winning rural Trump counties means he'll flip back Obama/Trump voters.
 - Biden winning college towns means he'll turn out the young voters in November.

You can't lose, Biden has no flaws!

Being sarcastic doesn't make you look intelligent. The lack of any perceived protest vote against Biden is what makes the state look even better for him in November. Looking back there should have been some concern that Clinton performed so poorly in the primary in working class areas. It seems like Biden didn't have that problem in the primary this time.

I wouldn't say there wasn't any protest vote against Biden. Bloomberg scored a non-negligible share of the vote (>5%) in Macomb, St. Clair, Bay, and many of the northern counties which swung hard to Trump in 2016.

Early vote.

Well yes, that's where it mostly came from, but that shouldn't have a differential impact on those counties in particular.

[RI]

The Washington county map continues to get curiouser and curiouser. Bernie's support makes a lot of sense - the two counties where he hit 40% both have relatively large student populations - WWU in Whatcom County and WSU in Whitman County. And yet Walla Walla County went to Biden despite also having a college student-heavy Democratic voting bloc. I don't know off the top of my head, but it looks like the seemingly random rural divide might come down to the main industry in each county. Farming counties went to Bernie, possibly because of higher Latino populations, while the rest went to Biden.

Biden's support is a very strange coalition. He has hit 40% in four counties thus far. Pierce County (Tacoma) makes perfect sense - a relatively large minority population and a large working class white moderate Democrat population. Island county probably skews old, so that also makes sense. Douglas County... uh, I suppose maybe the operators of the hydroelectric dams along the Columbia might be Biden's electorate there? I honestly have no idea what a Democrat who lives in Douglas County would be. Biden also won Garfield County, which holds the distinction of giving Obama 100% of the vote in the 2008 caucus, then voting for McCain by over 40 points. It was also one of only three counties in the state where same-sex marriage failed to hig 30% support in the 2012 referendum. Another county where I really have no idea what a local Democrat would look like.

All in all, it really seems like Biden just wins the "and the rest" vote without much rhyme or reason.

Biden is doing very well in suburbs/exurbs, with commuters, areas with higher incomes, and with the more "refined" class which would've otherwise supported Warren. Walla Walla County has a large student population, but most at Whitman College are upper class east coast types who are more Warren-friendly than Sanders-friendly, and most of the Walla Walla University students are probably Republicans. Douglas County is primarily East Wenatchee, which is more like exurbs/commuters to Wenatchee. Island County is a mix of military types (who haven't been going for Sanders; see Virginia Beach and Kitsap/Pierce Counties), exurban ferry commuters, and rural retirees.

Sanders is doing well with students, Latinos (see ag workers), in a few rural populist areas, and with some of the ex-hippie types.

[RI]

This is outdated now, but still interesting to look at: election night results from King County, WA.

City	Sanders	Biden	Warren	Bloomberg	Buttigieg	Klobuchar
Auburn	32.6	32.9	10.2	13.3	5.7	2.8
Bellevue	28.2	38.5	10.7	11.9	5.2	3.6
Bothell	32.6	32.5	13.5	10.5	5.8	3.4
Burien	36.7	29.7	13.3	9.6	5.2	2.8
Clyde Hill	16.5	47.2	7.7	17.1	6.0	3.8
Covington	32.4	31.2	11.2	11.6	8.2	2.1
Des Moines	29.5	35.5	11.0	12.9	5.0	3.7
Duvall	31.7	32.7	14.1	7.6	8.7	3.7
Enumclaw	25.3	36.2	10.8	12.5	8.6	3.8
Federal Way	31.5	36.5	9.3	13.0	4.5	2.4
Issaquah	27.0	39.9	11.1	10.5	6.2	3.6
Kent	34.9	34.7	9.1	11.0	5.1	2.5
Kirkland	29.3	36.2	12.9	10.3	5.7	3.6
Kenmore	32.5	33.7	14.3	9.1	5.3	3.2
Lake Forest Park	29.9	38.1	15.0	7.2	5.0	3.3
Maple Valley	29.2	35.2	10.9	11.0	7.2	3.5
Medina	12.0	45.9	6.6	24.1	5.7	4.0
Mercer Island	16.9	46.8	9.6	15.6	5.1	4.3
Newcastle	26.1	37.4	10.2	13.0	7.3	3.9
Normandy Park	24.5	38.9	10.5	13.2	7.0	4.5
North Bend	32.5	31.4	11.9	11.4	5.5	4.3
Redmond	36.8	32.7	12.5	8.6	4.5	2.7
Renton	35.5	32.5	11.2	10.9	5.0	2.3
Sammamish	24.3	42.0	10.2	12.2	6.1	3.5
Seattle	37.1	28.6	19.5	6.1	4.7	2.7
SeaTac	38.3	29.6	9.8	12.0	5.0	2.1
Shoreline	35.2	31.2	16.4	7.8	4.4	3.2
Snoqualmie	27.1	37.9	12.8	10.1	7.7	2.6
Tukwila	42.7	27.3	11.2	10.4	4.7	1.5
Woodinville	32.5	34.8	10.7	10.3	7.0	2.8
Yarrow Point	9.5	58.0	8.2	16.0	5.6	2.2

Seattle by LD:

LD	Sanders	Biden	Warren	Bloomberg	Buttigieg	Klobuchar
11th LD	50.1	20.0	19.0	5.1	3.0	1.2
32nd LD	34.0	31.0	17.9	7.6	4.9	3.0
34th LD	33.1	30.9	18.9	6.9	5.4	3.2
36th LD	34.8	29.8	19.8	6.4	4.8	3.1
37th LD	40.6	26.1	20.2	6.0	4.0	1.6
43rd LD	41.0	25.6	19.7	5.2	5.0	2.4
46th LD	33.7	32.4	18.6	6.4	4.2	3.3