Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?

It does have electronic voting, however the roll call is apparently used in special occasions like this one, or like when electing a PM.

Similarly, secret ballots are used when electing the Congress president.

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chance he calls a new election?

[Former President tack50]

Is there any chance he calls a new election?

In the very short term? (ie days or weeks). Probably not. In fact one of the promises he made was that he would call an election at some point, but not inmediately.

There's no way Sánchez is lasting until 2020 though. I'd say the next election will probably be in like Autumn 2019 at the latest.

[Velasco]

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

It's uncertain, uncharted territory. Pedro Sánchez is playing a risky game and by the moment he's winning. He had to play the card of the no-confidence motion for two reasons: 1) moral imperative 2) PSOE desperately needs to pull itself out of irrelevance. Let's remember that in the PSOE leadership contest Mr Sánchez was reelected on a leftist platform not so far from Podemos, including the acceptance of the multinational character of Spain ("estado plurinacional"). The notion of multinationality ("plurinacionalidad") is very controversial: it is disgusting not only for PP and Cs, but for many socialists aligned with regional 'barons' like Susana Díaz or representatives of the PSOE's 'Old Senate' like former Deputy PM Alfonso Guerra. Notice that Díaz and Guerra are from Andalusia, the main socialist stronghold in Spain. However, events in Catalonia have forced the PSOE to keep the  idea of the "multinationality" in a drawer. Given the gravity of the situation created by the September and October events which ended in the unilateral declaration of independence and the imposition of direct rule by the central government (article 155), Pedro Sanchez was left with no option but to support Rajoy and the reestablishment of the 'constitutional order' in Catalonia. The speech of king Felipe days after the October 1 illegal referendum was key in calling PSOE to "order". By the moment that Pedro Sánchez regained the PSOE leadership his main obsession was Podemos. Since the Catalan crisis intensified past year and Cs started booming in opinion polls as a consequence, his nightmares are tinted in orange.

The motion succeed because the support of Catalan nationalists forced PNV to make a decision. PNV voted in favour for two reasons: 1) public opinion in the Basque Country  2) fear of a snap election that would bring Cs to power. Albert Rivera is like Satan for Basque nationalists, for obvious reasons. Cs is fiercely opposed to the special tax system of the Basque Country, deemed as a privilege. "Free and Equal!*" claims Rivera. Neither PSOE nor PNV want immediate elections. On the other hand, the Catalan government is about to start functioning again once the "supremacist" premier Quim Torra has appointed regional ministers without legal problems. Pedro Sánchez made no concessions to Catalan separatists during the motion debate, but he said that he will meet Torra, who has been called "racist" by Pedro Sánchez due to some abominable expressions the Puigdemont's "vicarious" president used in old articles or tweets. One could say that regardless differences and the lack of personal affinity, institutional dialogue must be recovered at all costs.

Needless to say the political situation looks terribly complicated and future developments unpredictable.

*"Libres e Iguales" is the name of a platform led by former PP deputy Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo, known by her hardline stances on the Catalan question and linked to José María Aznar and the FAES foundation.

[jaichind]

Will be curious to see what the polls shows in response to this.  I would imagine a surge of support for Cs.

[swl]

None of the parties who voted for the no-confidence want elections right now, the PSOE and Podemos are too low in the polls, and Basques and Catalans are afraid of a Cs victory. So I assume a PSOE government can survive until the first big obstacle  (the 2019 budget for example).

[Velasco]

If elections were to be hold today, I would vote PSOE. Tomorrow I don't know, but I feel a lot of gratitude right now. Rajoy is gone. Thank you, Mr Sánchez.

These are the measures Pedro Sánchez wants to implement (in Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/programa-Sanchez-medidas-adoptara-presidencia_0_777273218.html

[Lord Halifax]

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

Romania is bigger.

[TheSaint250]

I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.

[Zinneke]

I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.

Depends on the region. His poll numbers might rise in Catalonia for being the moderate hero who engaged in dialogue. Andalucia on the other hand, after seeing the Basque country (the third richest community) get a special hand out...

[Mike88]

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition. Until October, Sanchéz will probably hold on but then you have the negotiations for the 2019 budget, and how can five parties with completely different agendas agree on a common budget? Yes, Rajoy had to go. He's time was up, but for someone who had survived so many times, he thought he was immortal. Well, no one is, especially Rajoy because he made his own bed, so to say. But now, Spain switched from a lame duck PP minority government to a lame duck PSOE super-tiny minority government. Seriously, even Costa's PS has more MPs than PSOE, and they aren't the biggest party in the Portuguese Parliament.

My guess is that elections will still be held this year, by November or December. January 2019 the latest. We'll see.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Sanchez says he intends to serve the balance of the parliamentary term, but yeah that looks next to impossible. But if he does somehow pull it off he'd surely go down as one of the most skilled European politicians of our time. He already managed to regain leadership of the party he led to its worst result ever against some very notable rivals and then managed to assemble enough support to become PM while having less than a quarter of seats in Parliament, so who knows...

[Velasco]

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition (...)

I understand your point of view and it's possible that I could agree with you on certain points, at least to some extent. As I said before, the situation is extremely complicated and prospects very uncertain. It's true that a government supported by less than 1/4 of the parliament is going to be very fragile. Also, it's true that the coalition supporting the no-confidence motion is very heterogeneous. However, I dislike the expression "Frankenstein coalition". It has been used by PP and Cs, as well by Madrid newspapers in order to question the legitimacy of the motion. When they are not conservative papers that support PP with various degrees of bigotry (all the papers that have used the word "Frankenstein"), they are rooting for Cs (case of El País).

Pedro Sánchez asked Rajoy to resign during the motion debate, but the ousted PM refused because it would have implied to accept his political responsibility in the PP corruption scheme. I think the ruling makes clear that Rajoy lied when he testified before the Court, as well establishes that Rajoy and other PP leaders received bonus payments from former treasurer Bárcenas (now convicted). Rivera, on the other hand, asked Rajoy to resign and asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order to put an "instrumental candidate" who called a snap election. I think Rajoy had every right to refuse, even though I find his attitude deplorable and morally reprehensible. Also, Albert Rivera has every right to demand Sánchez to do whatever he wishes. However, Cs lacks the strength to impose the political agenda because its good poll showing doesn't give seats in parliament. In case Rajoy had resigned, the course of events would have led to new elections. He refused and the motion followed its course. Pedro Sánchez has every right to make his attempt, even though governing is going to be a very difficult task. I'd say that the only thing that could bring the heterogeneous coalition together is the current opinion polling, which places Cs as the inevitable coalition partner in any government formation (either PP-Cs, PSOE-Cs or vice-cersa). Personally I don't want to see Rivera in government, so I'll send Sánchez my best wishes.

On a side note, I think the current government in Denmark is backed by 30% of parliament. I'm not implying that the political situations are remotely comparable. Denmark looks much more stable right now. However, minority governments are not uncommon in Europe.

[Velasco]

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.

[Oryxslayer]

The thing is, this really isn't a government - it is a ramshackle lean-to designed to last as long as it needs too. For example, I doubt the coalition can pass the 2019 budget, especially with the opposition senate. So like others have said, I suspect this government will only last until the election is most favorable to PSOE - which probably means a reasonable lead over C's. With the way how polls have been for a while, the only two governments that could be formed are some orientation of PP+C's or  C's+PSOE. If a red/Orange government has to be formed, then it makes sense Sanchez wants to be the one dictating the terms rather than C's.

[seb_pard]

It's interesting to see the non-independentist media in Catalonia (particularly El Periodico and La Vanguardia) very hopeful about the Sanchez government. Not that they expect a successful government, but you can see for the first time that both parts are interested in talk, and we can expect for the first time (baby) steps to ease the situation. Their "happines"" reflects the terrible environment Catalonia is  


Honestly I wish the best to Sanchez, and I don't care if he govern with the PP budget. He needs to advance on some thing (end the Mordaza law and eliminate some vetoes). I really hope that the main loser (besides PP) is Cs. PSOE need to take votes from them. When we see that happening, that's the time to call elections.

[Mike88]

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.

Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.

[Former President tack50]

While the full Sánchez cabinet won't be presented until tomorrow, we do have at least 1 name fully confirmed.

Josep Borrell, PM candidate for the 2000 election, minister of public works under Felipe González and former speaker of the European parliament, will be Sánchez's minister of foreign affairs.

He is also famous for his speeches at the 2 large unionist rallies in Catalonia, back when the issue was at its peak.

Borrell was interestingly the only former PSOE leader who supported Sánchez back on the primaries, and his own career has some similarities with Sánchez's; particularly his 2000 run, when he defeated the establishment candidate Almunia. Borrell had to drop out later and make Almunia the PM candidate as he was uncomfortable without having support from the establishment and a corruption scandal involving some of his colleagues appeared.

As for other stuff about the Sánchez cabinet, we also fully know that it will have the same number of  women and men, just like the Zapatero cabinets (funnily enough, González's first cabinet had 0 women whatsoever XD). He will apparently also recover the "Equality ministry" which was short lived under Zapatero's 2nd term. Finally, the number of ministries will probably be increased.

In any case though, all doubts will be solved tomorrow.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

[Oryxslayer]

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.

Probably not, but you could start rolling out ideas before the government's inevitable collapse; it would help if the government doesn't just punt on these important issues. Maybe what Spain needs is an Iceland style constitutional assembly (ignore the fact that that ended up scrapped by the PP and IP) or whatever.

[Former President tack50]

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

The first one no, no way Sánchez tackles constitutional reform. It's one of PSOE's projects but with such an unstable government there's no way he does that. Plus it would be very controversial and he lacks the numbers anyways (such a reform would need PP+PSOE at the very least)

As for federalising Spain, both PSOE and Podemos are in favour of that. However neither has developed their proposals. In PSOE's case they are split on whether regions should have financial autonomy (which would be harmful to PSOE's base in the poor rural south) and on whether that federalism should be symmetrical or assymetrical. And of course which places of Spain qualify as "nations" as opposed to mere "regions". Have heard even less from Podemos, other than that they want a plurinational Spain and that they accept the right for regions to become independent, which PSOE doesn't.

I guess secessionists and nationalists would probably vote for it but feel it's underwhelming unless it includes a referendum. And of course both PP and Cs are very much opposed.

And this also translates to polling. From the latest CIS poll (April 2018) here's support for expanding devolution or centralizing Spain by party:



So apparently centralism has more support than further federalism, but the status quo still beats both (though support for it is slowly declining iirc).

Interestingly, both PP and Cs have a majority in favour of further centralism, while PSOE has a majority for the status quo even though they are pushing for further federalism. And even in Podemos federalists only barely beat the status quo 36-35 for the main branch (their Catalan, Valencian and Galician semi-independent branches all have much better numbers).

By region we don't have any recient numbers, there are polls from 2015. In any case, federalists only beat centralists in the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarra and the Balearic Islands iirc. Though centralists only were an overall majority of the electorate in Castille Leon and surprisingly Aragon.

And to answer your question about a constitutional assembly, that's never going to happen lol. Most likely is that PP-Cs start yelling "Sánchez will turn Spain into Venezuela!!!11!" and win. Not to mention that there's no real way to do that. I guess they could call a standard snap election and call it like that. But I don't think even Podemos would create a "constitutional assembly".

[Former President tack50]

Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

In any case, it seems the frontrunners to replace Rajoy are probably former deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and regional president of Galicia Alberto Nuñez Feijoo. I'd say Feijoo would give more of a "renovation" ambient, but he has an infamous photo with Marcial Dorado, a drug trafficker. Soraya is probably too close to Rajoy and would give less renovation but still.

There is also the possibility of someone else winning instead though.

What I'm wondering is how they'll elect their new leader. Will Rajoy simply appoint someone and the party blindly accept it? (like how Fraga appointed Aznar and Aznar appointed Rajoy). Or will there be a contested congress?

[Velasco]

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.

Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.

El País has been always regarded as a pro-PSOE newspaper, although I'd say that its editorial line was more close to social-liberalism than socialdemocracy and in the last years it has been shifting to the right. Editors of El País used to claim that Spain needs a "modern" and "liberal" centre-right party similar to other mainstream parties in Western Europe. El País and the rest of Madrid papers and media outlets backed Susana Díaz against Pedro Sánchez. In the last times its editorials have been very well tunned with Cs stances. It's not a secret that Cs has a powerful media and business support.

However, the tactical mistakes of Albert Rivera in the no-confidence motion have received criticism in El País. As well, one of its star columnists criticized the "jingoist" opening ceremony of  España Ciudadana (aimed to be a "civil society" platform in the style of En Marche!). El País editor Antonio Caño wrote an opinion article advising Sánchez to follow a "modern" and "reformist" socialdemocratic line because that's the best way to fight the dangers of "populsim" and "nationalism"...

"The defeat of Rivera" by José Ignacio Torreblanca

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/03/opinion/1528056415_470501.html

"The jingoist delusion of Rivera" by Rubén Amón

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/05/21/opinion/1526896633_872322.html

"There's a path to the left" by Antonio Caño

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/01/opinion/1527879683_678856.html

Let's say it's a social-liberal pro-establishmnt paper that is against Catalan separatism and Podemos' left-wing populism, between the right wing of PSOE and the oranges.

Everything points that PP is going to implement a tough and aggresive opposition. PP needs to mask its terrible state of disorientation and confusion, as well to play a leading role against Cs.

Oranges are blurred and confused right now, but I doubt they are dead. PP is clearly in decline and its voter base is ageing, but its territorial implemenrtation is very robust. Núñez Feijoó seems to be very well placed in the sucession line, while the hostility between Soraya Sáez de Santamaría and María Dolores de Cospedal plays against both women.

Possibly Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE aim to last until the next year elections have passed. Regional. Local and European elections are scheduled in 2019. We'll see...

I am beginning to like the idea of a "Frankenstein Government". The appointment of Josep Borrell in Foreign Affairs is great news, in my opinion.

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

Wow