Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Storr]

[snip]

It is currently 5:15pm in Slovakia: "The election moratorium will be extended by 20 minutes, so it will last until 10:20 p.m. throughout Slovakia. The reason is the collapse of a member of the commission in one of the electoral districts in Senec. This was announced by the chairman of the state election commission, Eduard Burda. (tasar)"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900805/

Shame, I was hoping for a repeat of this from last time round:

The polls have just closed, but we aren't gonna results for a while. Voting has been extended in a village in the east of the country, where a drunk local councillor stole the ballot box, opened it and threw out the 285 ballots that were inside (they managed to collect them afterwards). The results can't be released until every polling station has closed. Still, lol.

[snip]

I doubt the latest delay is as hilarious as that moratorium extension from 2019. At least we can always imagine. What caused "the delay of the chairman of the district commission", did he sleep in?

"The election moratorium is extended by half an hour until 10:30 p.m. , the Ministry of the Interior informed. The reason is the late opening of the polling station in the village of Norovce (Topoľčany district) by 30 minutes, which was caused by the delay of the chairman of the district commission.

The polling station in this village will therefore be open until 10:30 p.m."

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900872/?ref=mpm

[Storr]

A true man of the people:

"Štefan Harabin spends election night in a local restaurant in Bratislava's Mlynská dolina. "I come from 10 children, I have lived modestly all my life, I continue in this style of life," Harabin described the choice of space near the student dormitories.

"I had a very good day - the sun was shining in the morning, that was good, I had time to ride my bike, I had a cigar in the afternoon," Harabin evaluated his election day."

"Among those present is Juraj Krajčík, the father of the Zámocká [2022 shooting at a Bratislava gay bar] murderer"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3901139/?ref=mpm

[Estrella]

RTVS had an "electoral model" made, which is really just a normal poll collected from Thursday until today.

Korčok 34.9%
Pellegrini 34.3%
Harabin 15.0%
Matovič 4.5%
Kubiš 4.3%

[Estrella]

First results. 7% counted, so obviously very early. Pellegrini 45, Korčok 26, Harabin 14, Forró 10, Matovič 3, Kubiš 1, Kotleba 1, Dubovský 1, Náhlik 0.

[Estrella]

33% counted. Pellegrini 42, Korčok 33, Harabin 13, Forró 5, Matovič 3, Kubiš 2, Kotleba 1, Dubovský 1, Náhlik 0.

[Estrella]

Denník N projection: Korčok 38.8, Pellegrini 35.9, Harabin 12.8
Sme projection: Korčok 37.7–43.0, Pellegrini 35.4–40.4, Harabin 11.0–12.9

[Estrella]

Only a hour and a quarter in and 63% of polling stations are counted. That's impressive. It's all just normal paper ballots ftr.

Pellegrini 40.4, Korčok 36.9, Harabin 12.5, Forró 4.2, Matovič 2.4, Kubiš 1.9, Dubovský 0.7, Kotleba 0.6, Náhlik 0.1. Turnout 48.8%, basically the same as last time.

[Storr]

"After counting 64 percent of the votes, Denník N's projection confirms that Ivan Korčok should win the first round.

Korčok currently leads in the west and north of Slovakia and also in the vicinity of Košice, Banská Bystrica and Zvolen. The map also shows what percentage of precincts are included in each district. Bratislava is only partially counted so far, which confirms that Korčok will continue to grow. According to expectations, Forró will win in the districts of Dunajská Streda and Komárno.

Korčok's lead is also increasing according to the projection of the SME daily, in which it reaches almost three percentage points."

https://dennikn.sk/prezidentske-volby-2024/?ref=mwat

[Estrella]

Korčok currently leads in the north of Slovakia

KDH leader Milan Majerský was an incredibly active campaigner for Korčok, more than any other party leader and probably as much as Korčok himself – and it shows.

[Estrella]

86% counted and il sorpasso is here: Korčok 39.3%, Pelle 39.1%. In Bratislava, only 30-ish% is counted and Korčok is getting over 60% (and often over 65%) in all of the city's districts.

[Mike88]

Nearly 91% in, and Korcok is already almost 2 pp ahead of Pellegrini.

[DavidB.]

So both candidates outran the polls. This isn't going to be enough for Korčok though. Expecting Pelle to win the runoff 55-45-ish, perhaps a bit more narrow.

[Mike88]

So both candidates outran the polls. This isn't going to be enough for Korčok though. Expecting Pelle to win the runoff 55-45-ish, perhaps a bit more narrow.

Not sure, the latest runoff polls are showing the gap closing, 51-53% for Pellegrini, 47-49% for Korčok. And Korčok is clearly exceeding expectations in the first round.

[DavidB.]

So both candidates outran the polls. This isn't going to be enough for Korčok though. Expecting Pelle to win the runoff 55-45-ish, perhaps a bit more narrow.

Not sure, the latest runoff polls are showing the gap closing, 51-53% for Pellegrini, 47-49% for Korčok. And Korčok is clearly exceeding expectations in the first round.

Then he'll have to do very well among non-voters, because those 12% Harabin voters will overwhelmingly go for Pelle, and they will possibly turn out in greater numbers if runoff polls look tight. The question is how many people are progressive enough to want to stop Pelle but not engaged enough to go to the polls in the first round.

[Estrella]

So both candidates outran the polls. This isn't going to be enough for Korčok though. Expecting Pelle to win the runoff 55-45-ish, perhaps a bit more narrow.

Not sure, the latest runoff polls are showing the gap closing, 51-53% for Pellegrini, 47-49% for Korčok. And Korčok is clearly exceeding expectations in the first round.

Then he'll have to do very well among non-voters, because those 12% Harabin voters will overwhelmingly go for Pelle, and they will possibly turn out in greater numbers if runoff polls look tight. The question is how many people are progressive enough to want to stop Pelle but not engaged enough to go to the polls in the first round.

This is an important point, but the reverse also applies to Harabin voters. It's possible (but far from certain) that many of them will see it as a runoff between two liberals like they did in 2019 and stay home.

[Mike88]

96.83% counted and Korčok's lead over Pellegrini is already above 4%.

[Storr]

Harabin getting a lower percentage than he received in 2019, despite two candidates withdrawing and endorsing him in the days right before the election, is a mostly meaningless yet pleasantly surprising outcome. (He's currently at 11.89%, got 14.35% in 2019.)

[DavidB.]

Then he'll have to do very well among non-voters, because those 12% Harabin voters will overwhelmingly go for Pelle, and they will possibly turn out in greater numbers if runoff polls look tight. The question is how many people are progressive enough to want to stop Pelle but not engaged enough to go to the polls in the first round.

This is an important point, but the reverse also applies to Harabin voters. It's possible (but far from certain) that many of them will see it as a runoff between two liberals like they did in 2019 and stay home.

True, I guess these are the two decisive factors for the runoff. I assumed most Harabin voters would also go for Pelle, but perhaps I'm wrong there. My idea was that running his campaign more to the right probably helps him, and so does the fact that he can portray Korčok as a second Čaputová, and so does the fact that he is in government with more right-wing parties. But if this doesn't happen, it could indeed be a lot closer than my initial guesstimate.

[DavidB.]

Harabin getting a lower percentage than he received in 2019, despite two candidates withdrawing and endorsing him in the days right before the election, is mostly meaningless yet pleasantly surprising outcome. (He's currently at 11.89%, got 14.35% in 2019.)

I guess this is because Pellegrini is much more acceptable to 'populist' voters than Šefčovič was. On the other hand, you'd expect Harabin to more than make up for that loss with Kotleba 2019 voters. Would actually be interesting to see a voter flow chart for these two elections.

[Estrella]

The thing about running a culturally right-wing campaign is that it's the obvious strategy and on paper it should work, but it can easily backfire. In 2019, Šefčovič came off as patently insincere and desperate, but at the same time he might have overdone it. Slovakia isn't Poland: even though the median voter is quite socially conservative, it seems like an overtly religious campaign comes off as "weird" in the same way as an overtly pro-LGBT one. In 2014, Fico also started with a Christian values message, but it was derailed by revelations of his anti-religious proclamations from when he was in the Communist Party and he resorted to outlandish accusations about Kiska being a Scientologist that only ended up helping his opponent by making Kiska look level-headed (see also Babiš' "I'm not a soldier, I won't drag Czechia into a war" campaign last year that probably had the same effect). The 2009 Gašparovič campaign did work, but it was centered around accusing Radičová of supporting autonomy for Hungarian regions, which is obviously not an option now.

As you said, Pellegrini is a better fit for populist voters, but only up to a point. I wonder how much of the far-right -> Pelle flow is due to the fact that this Smer government isn't as detested even by people who should be its core voters as the previous one was post-Kuciak. One more problem for Pellegrini is that a few speeches aside, his campaign for the first round was basically nonexistent: it was all just platitudes about calm, unity and so on. He might finally tour the country and show himself on TV – or he might panic and do something stupid.

If you put a gun to my head I'd guess that Pelle wins 52-48 or so, but it's far from straightforward.

[Mike88]

If you put a gun to my head I'd guess that Pelle wins 52-48 or so, but it's far from straightforward.

Even though the 1st round turnout was the highest since 1999, it all seems that the 2nd round will be decided on who shows up to vote: If right-wing voters are disappointed and skip voting, or if moderate/progressive voters, encouraged by Korčok's strong showing, come out in heavier numbers.

[PSOL]

Pelle is a basic social democrat regardless of his campaign, which is better than his opponent, endorsed enthusiastically.

[RGM2609]

Momentum matters. And there's also a reason why it was Korcok who clearly overperformed tonight. I'd say he wins.

[Estrella]

The pollster NMS estimated how a second round could go, taking into account what voters of minor candidates were telling them about their choice in the second round and adjusting it for election results. Pellegrini could get 135k from Harabin, 18k from Kubiš, 11k from Forró and 8k from Matovič. Korčok could get 25k from Forró, 23k from Harabin, 22k from Matovič and 15k from Kubiš. Not taking into account changes in turnout or swings during the campaign, it would work out to 1,006,000 votes or 49.1% for Pellegrini and 1,043,000 votes or 50.9% for Korčok.

One more thing: it's been long suspected that Fico basically doesn't care who wins. He sent the mildest possible congratulations to Pellegrini and said that Smer's internal polling predicted Korčok would win. Maybe he'd care more if it was a candidate from Smer, but the relations between him and Pelle are frosty despite the fact they're in government together. If the government really sets their mind on something they can override the president in like 99% of cases, either directly or by changing the law, like they did earlier this year when they took away Čaputová's ability to name the director of the Statistical Office and the Healthcare Surveillance Authority. Things would be easier for Fico if Pelle won, but if it's Korčok he'll at least have someone he can attack to deflect attention from himself.

[RGM2609]

Yeah I think Pellegrini's annus horribilis is going to continue. That's what happens when, ultimately, you stand for nothing. You fall between chairs.