Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Estrella]

We now have the government programme, an 88-page document with the rather down to earth title Living better, calmer and safer. Here's the gist of it.

Economy: a lot of waffle about reducing bureaucracy, investing in science and tourism and so on, cut the deficit by 0.5% of GDP each year, introduce an excess profits tax on banks and possibly in other sectors as well, "monitor the prices of basic groceries and apply the necessary measures in case of inappropriate increases", increase tobacco and alcohol taxes, regulate gambling, reform the tax collection system, crack down on tax evasion

Social affairs: increase minimum wage to 60% of average wage unless "social partners" (i.e. unions and employers) agree otherwise, stricter regulation of overtime, expand and strengthen collective barganing, maintain and increase the extra pension payment at Christmas, expanding early childhood education, more funding for universities, create a "modern, professional programme of protection of mental health in schools", a lot of meaningless waffle about healthcare

Foreign and defence policy: "radically refuse" the transfer of further competences to the EU and ending unanimous voting, "stabilization and rebuilding of Ukraine represents an opportunity for development of Slovakia, especially our eastern regions", otherwise the same things I mentioned above ("will not continue military aid to Ukraine at the governmental level"), "the government wants to resolutely support the domestic arms industry to contribute to the positive growth of GDP", "the attention from the use of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty must also be moved to Article 3 and to the even more fundamental development of individual defense abilities" (translation: we need to have an actual army and not just a couple rusted Soviet tanks)

Environment and energy: "transition to a low-carbon economy", "reform" (translation: reduce the protection of) national parks, more LNG capacity, build up green hydrogen infrastructure, expansion of nuclear energy (finish the fourth block at Mochovce and build a third one at Jaslovské Bohunice), use brownfield land for renewable energy, transition to LED street lighting

Infrastructure: cut bureaucracy in construction permits, finish the D1, D3 and R4 motorways (something which has been promised by literally every government since the 1970s, so good luck there), expand bike paths, continue the previous governments' road, rail and public transport modernization plan, invest in river shipping, streamline the home renovation subsidy system

Reforms: reduce prison sentences and put more emphasis on restorative justice, reform the Criminal Code to introduce a "resolute emphasis" on the difference between first-time and repeat offenders, better protection of women against domestic violence, hire "civillian intervention workers" to help police in problem areas, reassess the previous governments' reform of court jurisdictions, reform and digitalize bureaucracy, create a "one stop shop" for funding of science and research, "optimalize" the number of state-owned buildings

Cultural issues: "the government respects the coexistence of persons of the same sex and is ready to address practical issues related to their life in the same household", more parental involvement in sex education, "the aim of social policy is to provide women at the time of pregnancy with full of social support to understand possible alternatives, including the possibility of anonymized birth and adoption of children", more funding for national and patriotic culture, split the public broadcaster Radio and Television of Slovakia into separate radio and TV organizations (just... why?), create public information campaigns to "promote family" and "promote culture, including the reading of quality fiction" (lmao).

As many liberal/progressive/PS-adjacent/genepool SDKÚ pundits said, this would be a great programme if it didn't come from Fico.

[Estrella]

Fico said some very interesting things at yesterday's Smer convention.

Fico between the lines: we will swallow Hlas and we're getting ready for early elections

Should Hlas chairman Peter Pellegrini become president in the spring of 2024, rival Smer chairman Robert Fico is preparing to absorb his party. Smer could then try to strengthen its position in government next year with early parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Robert Fico hinted at such a scenario of political development in Slovakia in his speech at the party's festive assembly on Friday.

"There are various considerations, also in the ranks of our coalition partners. These considerations, if realised - I hope you are aware of this - will fundamentally change the Slovak political map," Fico warned the party members in an apparent allusion to the fact that Pellegrini may run in the presidential elections and succeed in the polls.

This would mean that the Voice would very likely be looking for a new party chairman - although the law does not require the president to give up his party post, previous practice expects such a decision. Zuzana Čaputová, for example, gave up her post as vice-president of the then extra-parliamentary Progressive Slovakia after she advanced to the second round in the 2019 presidential election. However, Hlas voters are strongly attached to their leader, and if he were to move to the Presidential Palace, the party would lose its most prominent face.

"And that is why I dare not go further than December 2024, because the presidential election may cause us to face extremely difficult tasks here in 2024 concerning the position of the left on the Slovak political scene," the Smer leader told delegates at the party congress. "You are experienced and skilled enough to know what I am talking about now," he added. This, too, was Fico's apparent allusion to what will happen to the Voice without Pellegrini. Back in 2004, Smer's chairman managed to cope with his left-wing rivals by swallowing them up.

Smer last had a man in the Presidential Palace during the two terms of Ivan Gašparovič, from 2004 to 2014. Fico's presidential candidacy and defeat by Andrej Kiska in 2014 was a heavy political and personal defeat for the Smer president, and five years later Smer candidate Maroš Šefčovič clearly lost to Zuzana Čaputová. Meanwhile, opinion polls also predict the Hlas chairman's chances of success. If we recalculate the results of the Ipsos poll for the second round only for the decided voters, we would find that Pellegrini would get 61 and Korčok 39 percent of the vote.

In connection with the presidential elections, Prime Minister Robert Fico also opened a completely new and surprising topic at the party assembly in the Winter Riding Hall of Bratislava Castle - early parliamentary elections. He asked the participants in the congress to adopt a resolution expressing support for the current leadership until the next elections, and then continued in connection with the elections with the following sentence: "Which can be very quickly - they can be after the European elections, they can be after the presidential elections. That moment will come quite quickly because, as I told you, the map of the Slovak political scene can change significantly," he said at the end of his more than one-hour speech.

The date of the presidential elections has not yet been fixed and will be determined by Pellegrini as the speaker of parliament. The latest they can be on 16 April. The European Parliament elections will be held here on 8 June.

[Estrella]

The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

The pension bill is evidently an electoral handout, designed in order to goad retirees into supporting Ciolacu's presidential candidacy.

Thanks Ciolacu for giving Pellegrini an idea The government announced that in addition to increasing the monthly pension and increasing the special Christmas pension bonus, there will be an extra Christmas gift, a €300 one-time payment for every pensioner. Pelle's little campaign handout will cost some €440 million, about half a percent of GDP on top of the yawning 5.7% deficit.

Talking about the presidential election, here's a new poll:
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas) 34.9%
Ivan Korčok (SaS) 26.5%
Štefan Harabin (Vlasť) 7.7%
Ján Kubiš (ind. ex-Smer) 5.1%
Robert Mistrík (ind. ex-SaS) 3.1%
Miriam Lexmann (KDH) 1.7%
None of the above/wouldn't vote/don't know 21.0%

Note that Pellegrini hasn't officially declared he's running (but ofc he'll run), Mistrík says he has the 15,000 signatures he needs to run but he's still undecided, Harabin says he's running but doesn't have the signatures yet, Lexmann hasn't announced yet whether she's running and according to KDH's caucus chairwoman they might support Korčok if she doesn't run.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We now have the government programme, an 88-page document with the rather down to earth title Living better, calmer and safer. Here's the gist of it.

Economy: a lot of waffle about reducing bureaucracy, investing in science and tourism and so on, cut the deficit by 0.5% of GDP each year, introduce an excess profits tax on banks and possibly in other sectors as well, "monitor the prices of basic groceries and apply the necessary measures in case of inappropriate increases", increase tobacco and alcohol taxes, regulate gambling, reform the tax collection system, crack down on tax evasion

Social affairs: increase minimum wage to 60% of average wage unless "social partners" (i.e. unions and employers) agree otherwise, stricter regulation of overtime, expand and strengthen collective barganing, maintain and increase the extra pension payment at Christmas, expanding early childhood education, more funding for universities, create a "modern, professional programme of protection of mental health in schools", a lot of meaningless waffle about healthcare

Foreign and defence policy: "radically refuse" the transfer of further competences to the EU and ending unanimous voting, "stabilization and rebuilding of Ukraine represents an opportunity for development of Slovakia, especially our eastern regions", otherwise the same things I mentioned above ("will not continue military aid to Ukraine at the governmental level"), "the government wants to resolutely support the domestic arms industry to contribute to the positive growth of GDP", "the attention from the use of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty must also be moved to Article 3 and to the even more fundamental development of individual defense abilities" (translation: we need to have an actual army and not just a couple rusted Soviet tanks)

Environment and energy: "transition to a low-carbon economy", "reform" (translation: reduce the protection of) national parks, more LNG capacity, build up green hydrogen infrastructure, expansion of nuclear energy (finish the fourth block at Mochovce and build a third one at Jaslovské Bohunice), use brownfield land for renewable energy, transition to LED street lighting

Infrastructure: cut bureaucracy in construction permits, finish the D1, D3 and R4 motorways (something which has been promised by literally every government since the 1970s, so good luck there), expand bike paths, continue the previous governments' road, rail and public transport modernization plan, invest in river shipping, streamline the home renovation subsidy system

Reforms: reduce prison sentences and put more emphasis on restorative justice, reform the Criminal Code to introduce a "resolute emphasis" on the difference between first-time and repeat offenders, better protection of women against domestic violence, hire "civillian intervention workers" to help police in problem areas, reassess the previous governments' reform of court jurisdictions, reform and digitalize bureaucracy, create a "one stop shop" for funding of science and research, "optimalize" the number of state-owned buildings

Cultural issues: "the government respects the coexistence of persons of the same sex and is ready to address practical issues related to their life in the same household", more parental involvement in sex education, "the aim of social policy is to provide women at the time of pregnancy with full of social support to understand possible alternatives, including the possibility of anonymized birth and adoption of children", more funding for national and patriotic culture, split the public broadcaster Radio and Television of Slovakia into separate radio and TV organizations (just... why?), create public information campaigns to "promote family" and "promote culture, including the reading of quality fiction" (lmao).

As many liberal/progressive/PS-adjacent/genepool SDKÚ pundits said, this would be a great programme if it didn't come from Fico.

Yeah I was about to say that isn't the worst program in the world, except for the fact that it comes from Robert F@cko

[Storr]

The PNL Minister of Finance has been throwing criticism at the Government over the pension bill that the Chamber of Deputies just passed. This would add quite a bit of spending over the medium term (0.6% of GDP 2023, 1.6-1.8% thereafter) so will bring the deficit to an insane 5.9% in 2024 and ~6.8% in 2025, and that's after the recent tax hikes and the fact that revenues this year have massively disappointed (6.3% deficit 2023.)

The EU has Romania in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (deficit must remain < 3.0%) so the scale of this deterioration is quite bad, given there's no way we get the coalition raising taxes ahead of the elections, so that 2024 number is baked in and the 2025 figure is the problem of the next Government (I don't even think PSD/PNL holds)

The pension bill is evidently an electoral handout, designed in order to goad retirees into supporting Ciolacu's presidential candidacy.

Thanks Ciolacu for giving Pellegrini an idea The government announced that in addition to increasing the monthly pension and increasing the special Christmas pension bonus, there will be an extra Christmas gift, a €300 one-time payment for every pensioner. Pelle's little campaign handout will cost some €440 million, about half a percent of GDP on top of the yawning 5.7% deficit.

Talking about the presidential election, here's a new poll:
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas) 34.9%
Ivan Korčok (SaS) 26.5%
Štefan Harabin (Vlasť) 7.7%
Ján Kubiš (ind. ex-Smer) 5.1%
Robert Mistrík (ind. ex-SaS) 3.1%
Miriam Lexmann (KDH) 1.7%
None of the above/wouldn't vote/don't know 21.0%

Note that Pellegrini hasn't officially declared he's running (but ofc he'll run), Mistrík says he has the 15,000 signatures he needs to run but he's still undecided, Harabin says he's running but doesn't have the signatures yet, Lexmann hasn't announced yet whether she's running and according to KDH's caucus chairwoman they might support Korčok if she doesn't run.

Something I just noticed, after looking at Korčok's wikipedia page, is that both he and Pellegrini are from Banská Bystrica. It's not all that out of the box, with it being the 6th largest city in the Slovakia. It would still be interesting if both candidates that make the second round in the Presidential election were from the same town with a population of around 75k.

[Estrella]

Something I just noticed, after looking at Korčok's wikipedia page, is that both he and Pellegrini are from Banská Bystrica. It's not all that out of the box, with it being the 6th largest city in the Slovakia. It would still be interesting if both candidates that make the second round in the Presidential election were from the same town with a population of around 75k.

Banská Bystrica was also the only district where Hlas won in September, and this is actually a part of an interesting pattern. Recently we've been getting more pronounced favourite son votes that go beyond "tiny village gives a few points more to a party because the mayor ran as number hundred-something on the list". Smer's best district was, for the first time ever, not somewhere in the northeast but Topoľčany, where they won 39% and where Fico happens to be from (there was a famous incident when Fico went rollerblading in some village and a heckler yelled at him, roughly translated, "If only you'd shatter your snout, you fxcking žochár!"). KDH's best district outside their traditional Orava stronghold was Levoča, where they finished first with 21% and where Milan Majerský is from. KDH also did pretty well everywhere in the Prešov region, no doubt thanks to Majerský being a popular incumbent governor.

In 2012 and 2016, OĽANO's best (and in 2020, second best) district was Trnava, where Matovič is from and where he's been a local notable long before he entered politics. It's often said he "owns half of Trnava" – indeed, he his wife owns dozens of properties all over the district, and seemingly pretty mismanaged ones at that, including a hotel closed for decades and the crumbling archbishop's palace. Going further back, despite what the map on Wiki says, in 2002 the Movement for Democracy (a shameless knockoff of HZDS down to the name and logo) failed to get in parliament but still came first in the Poltár district, where their leader Ivan Gašparovič was from.

And since we're talking about areas with weird voting patterns... let's talk about the Myjava district in the northwest. It's tiny, just 25k people, most of them living in small villages of a few hundred people or on dispersed farmsteads. It's a lot like your typical Titanium Smer stronghold, and yet many of those isolated, poor, aging villages were (narrowly) won by PS with 20-25%. If you want to know why, take a look at the religious statistics: the district is 44% Lutheran, 36% irreligious and 12% Roman Catholic, the former the highest and the latter the second lowest number in Slovakia. In a country where social conservatism and nationalism are linked not with Christianity, but specifically with the Roman Catholic Church, these things will leave their mark even a century later. And like with Western European Protestants, the people here secularized earlier and still are a little different culturally (to quote a local tourism website: "a number of traditional costumes have been preserved, which are characterised above all by their simplicity of colour and moderate decoration. Myjava belonged to the regions where Lutheranism was and still is strong, which had an influence on the form of the local costume, which differed from the surrounding Catholic regions with colourful and heavily decorated traditional clothing.")

Just over the border of the district (but traditionally considered a part of this region) is Stará Turá. It's a pretty grim postindustrial small town of 9k people full of crumbling commieblocks that has no business giving PS 21%... but it's also 36% irreligious, 32% Lutheran and only 21% Catholic. In the 19th century it was a hotspot of Lutheran revival and the birthplace of the Royová sisters – prolific writers, preachers and founders of the born-again fundamentalist temperance movement Blue Cross. Completely unrelated, but my grandma was a member of a small Evangelical church and had two whole shelves of Kristína Royová books in her room. I've read some of them and I can pretty confidently say that Wikipedia calling her a "Slovak Kierkegaard" is hilarious.

I mentioned that Myjava has the second lowest share of Roman Catholics (the "Roman" bit is important!) in Slovakia. The lowest share is at the other end of the country, in the Medzilaborce district. It's even smaller, with barely 11k people living there, and the religious composition is 50% Greek Catholic, 27% Eastern Orthodox, 9% Roman Catholic and 7% irreligious, the former two being by far the highest percentages anywhere in Slovakia. The ethnic composition also stands out: 59% Slovak, 31% Rusyn and 2% Ukrainian, the latter two again by far the highest shares in the country. They have their own language (and some basic preservation efforts like school classes and bilingual signs), beautiful wooden churches and very weird politics.

Until this year Rusyns liked Most-Híd's schtick about "representing not just Hungarians but all ethnic minorities" and some actually voted for them, but the more interesting thing is the nature of the left-wing vote around here: it's basically Battista's Alentejo hick Marxism . You see, in most of Slovakia the usual pattern was HZDS in the 90s → Smer in the 2000s, with votes of Communists' official successor SDĽ playing only a minor role and left-wing and far-right votes being basically interchangeable. Not here. Since 1998, the first election after today's districts were created, the results of self-proclaimed socialist, social democratic, centre-left, communist or workers' parties in Medzilaborce were these (nationwide result in brackets, particularly standout results in red).

1998: 51.9% (27.2%) SDĽ 20.4% (14.7%), SOP 12.4% (8.2%), KSS 10.3% (2.8%), ZRS 8.3% (1.3%), JSPS 0.3% (0.1%), B-RRS 0.2% (0.1%)
2002: 55.3% (25.9%) KSS 24.9% (6.3%), Smer 20.4% (13.5%), SDĽ 3.3% (1.4%), NOSNP 2.4% (0.9%), ZRS 1.4% (0.4%), SZ 1.2% (1.0%), SDA 1.0% (1.8%), three minor parties 0.7% (0.6%)
2006: 67.0% (33.8%) Smer 53.6% (29.1%), KSS 10.0% (3.9%), ZRS 2.3% (0.3%), ĽB 0.8% (0.4%), SDĽ 0.3% (0.1%)
2010: 68.9% (38.2%): Smer 61.7% (34.8%), SDĽ 3.0% (2.4%), KSS 2.3% (0.8%), ZRS 1.9% (0.2%)
2012: 73.1% (46.9%) Smer 68.4% (44.4%), KSS 2.2% (0.7%), 99% 1.8% (1.6%), SDĽ 0.7% (0.2%)
2016: 49.8% (29.0%) Smer 47.2% (28.3%), KSS 2.2% (0.6%), Vzdor 0.4% (0.1%)
2020: 35.0% (18.9%) Smer 34.2% (18.3%), three minor parties 0.8% (0.6%)
2023: 53.9% (38.0%) Smer 29.3%, Hlas 24.2%, two minor parties 0.4%

If you compare the margins in 2010 and 2023, you'll see it's all going very #globaltrends.

...well, that was a lot of tangents. A few pages ago I wrote a similar effortpost on two other strange and fascinating regions of Slovakia, if you're interested

[Estrella]

So, uh, here's a brief summary of the past two weeks.

December 6: Fico proposes the abolition of the Office of the Special Prosecutor (ÚŠP), stating that "it can't be repaired" due to the damage caused by its long-time chief Daniel Lipšic and the office "needs to be brought under control of the Office of the Prosecutor General, as it always should have been". The fact that Lipšic initiated dozens of investigations into Smer politicians and Smer-adjacent oligarchs and that the Prosecutor General is very close to Smer is certainly not a coincidence.

December 7: First protests at the Cabinet Office and Parliament. About 5000 people showed up.

December 11: The government declares the ÚŠP will be abolished using the expedited legislative procedure. They also throw in some other reforms like reshuffling the competences of national and regional prosecutors and a slight loosening of drug laws (e.g. possession of up to 2 grams of marijuana or up to 3 pills of MDMA will be punishable by a suspended sentence).

December 12: Nationwide protests against Fico, with participation of PS, KDH, SaS, OĽANO/Slovensko, Democrats, various regional parties, multiple governors and mayors, presidential candidate Ivan Korčok, civic organizations, artists, journalists, student activists and some more liberal members of the clergy like archbishop Bezák. 15,000 people participate in Bratislava, 3000 in Košice and hundreds in other cities.

December 14: PS, KDH, SaS and Matovič team up to start what is probably Slovakia's first proper filibuster.

December 19:

— The third day of protests, not just in Bratislava but also in smaller provincial towns: 15-18 thousand in Bratislava, 2000 in Košice, 1000 in Trnava and hundreds in about a dozen other towns.

— Matovič declares his party will engage in "absolute obstruction".

They want to take advantage of the Rules of Procedure, which state that debate cannot be restricted during budget deliberations. The coalition cannot therefore cut short MPs' speeches. Igor Matovič has also approached other opposition partners with his plan, which envisages "superhuman performances by MPs".

According to the plan, every single opposition MP would submit a spoken and written speech and then speak for the whole day. As there are 71 opposition MPs, this would mean 142 days of debate. That is how long they would delay the debate in Parliament on the amendment to the Criminal Code, which provides for the abolition of the Office of the Special Prosecutor.

Matovič admits that the speakers could faint during the debate. "However, Slovakia's life is at stake. We should fight so that people on the streets, but also those who voted for us, will be proud of us," Matovič said.

December 20:

— Some ex-MP organized a protest in support of Fico. Less than a hundred people showed up.

— Students of Comenius University wrote an open letter criticizing the dean of the Faculty of Law, who said that "there could be a criminal group operating at the Office of the Special Prosecutor". Fico responded to one of the students with a statement that sums up his reaction to the protests:

If a student with pubertal rashes on his nose is to take precedence over the dean of a law school and determine what's true and what's not, God save this country! As a law student, I was also as wise as Solomon's pants. But I knew my place. What the anti-Slovak media is doing today is a gross insult to authority and education.

— As of right now, Gábor Grendel (OĽANO/Slovensko) has been reading an amendment to the budget for the last six hours.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

— As of right now, Gábor Grendel (OĽANO/Slovensko) has been reading an amendment to the budget for the last six hours.

Who else would do the Mr Smith Goes to Washington than Mr. Grendel the ordinary person with an independent personality.

[Estrella]

We have another interesting poll for the presidential election. I'm leaving out the former Police President Štefan Hamran, who was rumoured to be considering running but just a few hours ago announced he's quitting politics for good. Matovič probably won't run either.

	Certain	Potential
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas)	25%	49%
Ivan Korčok (SaS)	16%	32%
Štefan Harabin (ind. far-right)	7%	21%
Ján Kubiš (ind. ex-Smer)	2%	17%
Igor Matovič (Slovensko)	4%	11%
Miriam Lexmann (KDH)	2%	8%
Krisztián Forró (Szövetség)	2%	6%

Here's the potential support of the three main candidates by party:
Peter Pellegrini: Hlas 91, Smer 90, SNS 63, Republika 63, KDH 40, SaS 22, Slovensko 16, PS 14
Ivan Korčok: SaS 83, PS 67, Slovensko 64, KDH 54, Hlas 38, Republika 16, SNS 15, Smer 7
Štefan Harabin: Republika 60, SNS 59, Smer 48, Hlas 23, KDH 12, Slovensko 5, SaS 3, PS 3

Note the differences between the coalition partners: Hlas is fairly middle of the road, enthusiastic for Pellegrini but more open towards the liberal Korčok than to Harabin, while Smer has radicalized to the point that almost none of their voters would consider Korčok but nearly half are flirting with the far-right.

In the second round, Pellegrini would defeat Korčok in a landslide with 48% to 27%, plus 12% undecided and 12% who wouldn't vote. Of the other candidates, Lexmann and Kubiš would 16% each against Pelle, Matovič would get 13% and Harabin 11%. However, in none of those matchups does Pellegrini get more than 56%. Instead, there are more undecideds and non-voters.

Pellegrini is of course the favourite, but the campaign will only really start in the new year and there can be some ridiculously large swings in the last few weeks. Around this time before the last election, Čaputová was (one poll aside) getting single digits while Béla Bugár of Most-Híd was for some reason one of the leading liberals. In late 2013, Fico was polling ten points above and Kiska ten points below what would be their actual results. OTOH, maybe the swings won't be as wild this time because there is a clear liberal and far-right frontrunner instead of a million different candidates fighting over the same voters. In 2019, there were, depending on how you count, five far-right candidates (Harabin, Kotleba, Krajniak, Daňo, Švec) and seven liberals (Čaputová, Mistrík, Bugár, Mikloško, Zuzula, Tauchmannová, Zábojník).

[Estrella]

SNS is blackmailing Fico and Pellegrini. They're threatening that unless they get the speakership of Parliament or the Ministry of Economy (both held by Hlas), they're going to run their own candidate in the first round and might not endorse Pellegrini in the runoff. This is a, erm, brave idea. Tomáš Taraba would be SNS' best candidate, but even 5% or so would be a tall order unless there are no other far-right candidates and Harabin completely collapses. Anyone else from the party would do even worse, although I'm kinda hoping Andrej Danko runs because he'd give us enough Bushisms to last a lifetime. I'd also love to see how he'd try to explain to SNS voters with a straight face that they shouldn't vote against Korčok, the evil anti-Slovak Ukronazi SJW American puppet etc that they spent the last four years attacking.

[RGM2609]

On a scale from "united in spirit behind the Fuhrer" to "everyone claims to be the Fuhrer", how is SNS holding together? Any talk of splits so far from the ragtag crew of random fascists elected on their list?

[Estrella]

On a scale from "united in spirit behind the Fuhrer" to "everyone claims to be the Fuhrer", how is SNS holding together? Any talk of splits so far from the ragtag crew of random fascists elected on their list?

The former, except that I'm not sure Danko is the Fuhrer anymore. Taraba appears in the media more than him and I suspect a part of why SNS wants more posts is that actual SNS members are furious at Danko for not getting them anything.

[Estrella]

Tomáš Taraba would be SNS' best candidate, but even 5% or so would be a tall order unless there are no other far-right candidates and Harabin completely collapses. Anyone else from the party would do even worse, although I'm kinda hoping Andrej Danko runs because he'd give us enough Bushisms to last a lifetime.

Told ya.

	First round	Second round
Peter Pellegrini (Hlas)	43.9%	58.1%
Ivan Korčok (SaS)	32.3%	41.9%
Ján Kubiš (ind. ex-Smer)	9.9%
Štefan Harabin (ind. far-right)	9.8%
Andrej Danko (SNS)	3.5%
Krisztián Forró (Szövetség)	0.6%
Turnout	50%	42%

Barring some last-minute surprise, KDH and Slovensko/OĽANO won't run their own candidates. They don't have much to gain (it's not like Lexmann or Matovič would've stood a chance... not of winning, but of getting double digits) and while they aren't saying so openly, they're clearly short of money after punching way above their weight in the parliamentary campaign. With pathetic polling like this, I'm also wondering if Forró drops out like his party colleague Menyhárt did in 2019.

I'm trying to figure out what's the deal with Kubiš. He's had a long and distinguished diplomatic career, which everyone knows because he never shuts up about it ("did you know I was the Secretary General of OSCE, the UN Special Representative in Libya and Afghanistan, the first EU Special Representative for Central Asia..." etc etc). Judging by his slogans Love for Slovakia, respect abroad and Slovak at heart, diplomat at head, he's aiming for vaguely patriotic but not very ideological voters who want a Nice Guy FF to represent us.

[Estrella]

The presidential election has been called for March 23, with a runoff two weeks later on April 6. The timing is a bit unfortunate – Easter is a Serious Holiday™ here and it falls right between the two rounds – but in the end everyone agreed on it. By January 29 candidates need to present sigantures of 15,000 citizens or 15 MPs. The parliamentary election and the de facto year long campaign preceding it sucked up so much political oxygen that it's possible the only candidates will be the six in the poll above. For comparison, there were thirteen (plus two withdrawn at the last minute) in 2019 and fourteen in 2014. I wouldn't even be surprised if Forró and Danko fail to get the signatures and we'll end up with just four. The spending limit is €500,000 per candidate but in practice it's more of a suggestion, as these things tend to be.

The Presidency is mostly a ceremonial role, in charge of representing the country abroad, negotiating and ratifying international agreements, naming and recalling ambassadors and such. In domestic affairs, the President names the PM and ministers, guides the formation of the government and may name a PM on their own discretion if the incumbent lost a vote of confidence and the legislature can't agree on a new one. This power has been used twice: with Ľudovít Ódor last year and with Jozef Moravčík back in 1994. They may also call an early election using an absurdly complicated procedure that has never been used because all were called by one-off constitutional amendments to get around the fixed terms. They may also veto laws, but Parliament can override the veto by a simple majority of all (not just present) MPs. They also have a few other powers that are in most cases just a rubber stamp confirming the government's decisions, like appointing judges, calling referendums, awarding medals or (for some reason) naming university professors.

Pellegrini still hasn't officially announced he's running, even though he's already been endorsed by Smer and Hlas. Korčok has been endorsed by PS and SaS as expected. He'll likely also receive support from Democrats (remember them?) and maybe – but only maybe – from KDH. Having failed to convince Fico to give them the speakership or a ministry, SNS declared they won't endorse Pellegrini, which leads us to an interesting question. According to analysts, Čaputová would've won in 2019 anyway, but what made it a landslide was (some) far-right voters refusing to vote for Eurocrat Šefčovič as the lesser evil. The far right vote is much smaller this time and Pellegrini is much more popular, but if there's a mobilization of anti-government vote and Harabin/Danko voters will think Pelle is too liberal, things could get interesting.

In other news, yesterday there was another anti-government protest in Bratislava attended by some 20,000 people. Like in December it was just PS, SaS and KDH with vague support from but no participation by Matovič.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

They may also call an early election using an absurdly complicated procedure that has never been used because all were called by one-off constitutional amendments to get around the fixed terms.

How exactly does the convoluted official procedure work then? Must be interestingly weird given how many times they've literally amended the constitution to avoid it.

[Estrella]

They may also call an early election using an absurdly complicated procedure that has never been used because all were called by one-off constitutional amendments to get around the fixed terms.

How exactly does the convoluted official procedure work then? Must be interestingly weird given how many times they've literally amended the constitution to avoid it.

Tbh a better way to put it would be that the procedure can be used only in very specific circumstances that have occured only once and it doesn't take "typical" coalition crises into account at all.

An important thing to note is that calling a snap election is a complicated matter and in practice, you need a two-thirds majority for it. The Constitution defines the term of the legislature as four years, period. There are very strict limits on the circumstances when an early election can take place:

- if the National Council of the Slovak Republic, within a period of six months from the nomination of a Government of the Slovak Republic, has not passed its Programme Proclamation
- if the National Council of the Slovak Republic has not passed within three months of the formation of a Government a draft law with which the Government has combined a vote of confidence
- if the National Council of the Slovak Republic has not managed to hold a session for longer than three months although its sitting has not been adjourned and it has during this time been repeatedly called for a meeting
- if a session of the National Council of the Slovak Republic has been adjourned for a longer time than is allowed by the Constitution.

The number of times any of these provisions were used is zero. All three snap elections (1994, 2006, 2012) were called by means of a constitutional amendment to get around the four year limit. Last time it looked like this:

Article 1
(1) The term of the National Council of Slovak Republic elected in 2010 ends with the day of elections to the National Council.
(2) Elections to the National Council will take place on 10 March 2012.
Article 2
This constitutional act comes in effect on the day of proclamation.

Basically, the President can call a snap election if the person nominated to form a government hasn't been able to do so for six months (first point) or if there was some shxthousery to prevent the parliament from meeting (third and fourth points). I want to know what they were smoking when they wrote the second point, and when they translated it: the Slovak version actually doesn't mention the "of the formation of a Government" bit at all, and the way it's written in English the clause would only apply in the first three months of the government's term. The correct version isn't much better – it only applies when the government declares a bill a matter of confidence and not when the opposition presents a no confidence motion. The clause could have been used in 2012 – Radičová's government fell because she tied the vote on the European Stability Mechanism with a vote of confidence – but they would have to wait thirty days before the election could be called, so they just said fxck it and went with another constitutional amendment. Last year, the constitution was changed to allow three fifths of MPs to vote for an early election... which is the same number that you need for a constitutional amendment, so it's basically the same thing, just a little less messy.

I should probably point out that despite years of preparation, our current constitution ended up being written from scratch in like three weeks, most of which were spent by haggling between left and right about social rights and between Mečiar and everyone else about PM's powers.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I want to know what they were smoking when they wrote the second point, and when they translated it: the Slovak version actually doesn't mention the "of the formation of a Government" bit at all, and the way it's written in English the clause would only apply in the first three months of the government's term. The correct version isn't much better – it only applies when the government declares a bill a matter of confidence and not when the opposition presents a no confidence motion. The clause could have been used in 2012 – Radičová's government fell because she tied the vote on the European Stability Mechanism with a vote of confidence – but they would have to wait thirty days before the election could be called, so they just said fxck it and went with another constitutional amendment.

So if it worked honestly it's a Robert Muldoon situation. Government has confidence of the house but not on a specific legislative policy like nuclear power, needs to force the issue at an election.
Or alternatively a government might go all Ted Heath and "Who Governs Slovakia!" and exploit it like Helmut Kohl did.

[Estrella]

Perhaps not the best start to a presidential campaign.

SNS chief Danko destroyed a traffic light at night with his car. He fled the scene.

Andrej Danko, the SNS Deputy Speaker of Parliament, destroyed a traffic light in Bratislava's Dúbravka district and then allegedly fled the scene of the accident.

All opposition parties have already called on him to resign as Deputy Speaker of Parliament. The incident will not be able to be "casually shrugged off" also according to parliamentary speaker and Danko's colleague in the coalition leadership, Petr Pellegrini of Hlas, if it is confirmed that Danko "clearly broke the law" after the accident.

The accident is said to have occurred during the night of Thursday to Friday. "Andrej Danko allegedly did not immediately report the accident to the police, backed out with the car and drove it home. The police also traced him by the oil slick. It led to his garage and reporters saw it with their own eyes" the website reports. A plate with the registration number of the car, which is owned by SNS, was also left at the scene of the accident. According to this, the police subsequently tracked down the culprit of the accident.

Danko subsequently confirmed the accident. For Startitup he first said: "I hit a pole, so what, I'll pay for everything." Later, he also posted a video on social media on the topic. "It happened, I admit it. I skidded tonight, which is probably not unusual. I hit a pole, I reported it to the insurance company, I reported it to the town hall. If there is anything else that needs to be done, I will do everything," Danko said. He added that he had also provided assistance to the police.

As to why he did not wait at the scene, he added only that "with the pillar he would hardly write an insurance claim".

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Perhaps not the best start to a presidential campaign.

SNS chief Danko destroyed a traffic light at night with his car. He fled the scene.

Andrej Danko, the SNS Deputy Speaker of Parliament, destroyed a traffic light in Bratislava's Dúbravka district and then allegedly fled the scene of the accident.

All opposition parties have already called on him to resign as Deputy Speaker of Parliament. The incident will not be able to be "casually shrugged off" also according to parliamentary speaker and Danko's colleague in the coalition leadership, Petr Pellegrini of Hlas, if it is confirmed that Danko "clearly broke the law" after the accident.

The accident is said to have occurred during the night of Thursday to Friday. "Andrej Danko allegedly did not immediately report the accident to the police, backed out with the car and drove it home. The police also traced him by the oil slick. It led to his garage and reporters saw it with their own eyes" the website reports. A plate with the registration number of the car, which is owned by SNS, was also left at the scene of the accident. According to this, the police subsequently tracked down the culprit of the accident.

Danko subsequently confirmed the accident. For Startitup he first said: "I hit a pole, so what, I'll pay for everything." Later, he also posted a video on social media on the topic. "It happened, I admit it. I skidded tonight, which is probably not unusual. I hit a pole, I reported it to the insurance company, I reported it to the town hall. If there is anything else that needs to be done, I will do everything," Danko said. He added that he had also provided assistance to the police.

As to why he did not wait at the scene, he added only that "with the pillar he would hardly write an insurance claim".

never change, Slovakia. This really feels like a political satire just happening irl.

[Estrella]

^{*whispers* I should be doing research for my thesis right now}

Here are some maps I made of the 2021 census.

[Storr]

"Slovak PM Robert Fico voiced his support for Hungary's Viktor Orbán, criticizing Brussels for trying to “punish” Budapest over its stance on funds for Ukraine."

"“As long as I am the head of the Slovak government, I will never agree that a country should be punished for fighting for its sovereignty. I will never agree with such an attack on Hungary,” Fico said Tuesday during a joint press conference with Orbán [in Budapest]."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1747331406080946472?s=20

[Estrella]

Some news.

1. Related to the above:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1747316359430619601

As the tweet says, Radačovský is an MP elected on the SNS list, although he got in only after the election when two other elected-with-SNS-but-not-from-SNS MPs got appointed ministers, and an MEP elected on the ĽSNS list; the other ĽSNS MEP was Milan Uhrík, now leader of Republika. He's the leader of his own one-man band of a far-right party, Slovak Patriot. He also declared he's going to run for President, saying he wants to get the 15 MPs' signatures he needs from SNS and Smer.

Also, one amazing bit that the tweet doesn't mention is "if we Slavs unite, one day we'll turn everything from Tatras to Šumava to La Manche into a lawn."

2. Minister of Culture Martina Šimkovičová posted a poll asking her followers on Facebook (because that's where political stuff hapens in Slovakia, not Twitter) if she should support "restoration of cultural monuments, protection of cultural heritage and the artistic community" or "LGBT+ events where little children learn how to flaunt themselves at a sex show and rainbow marches where half-naked people are showing themseles off on town squares". Šimkovičová then announced she's going to cut funding for "LGBT and progressive NGOs", with the justification that her predecessor only cared about popularity with the media and instead of funding NGOs she wants to deal with important issues like fixing the roof of the Slovak Philharmonic, for which she used funds earmarked for fighting disinformation. Activists launched an online petition asking for her resignation that has received over 135 thousand (!) signatures so far. SNS reacted to the petition with "the minister deserves support because perhaps the LGBT community and its members like visiting the Philharmonic as well."

3. More protests against Fico's (still only planned, the fillibuster successfully delayed it) abolition of the Special Prosecutor. Demonstrations took place in 24 cities with the largest one in Bratislava attended by around 26,000 people. The President gave a very critical and combative speech about the proposal to Parliament, calling the government hypocritical and saying "winning the election doesn't mean being allowed to do everything". SNS boycotted the speech in response to her refusing to name Rudolf Huliak as minister back in October, while tankie Smer MP Ľuboš Blaha demonstratively spent the time reading a book accusing Matovič-era corruption investigators of murdering one of the suspects. Btw, the book's author Gustáv Murín is a former journalist turned bizarre conspiracy theorist who spends his time writing blog posts such as "The Great Covid Fraud", "The Neoliberal Gender Phantasmagoria" or one about Ukrainian neo-Nazis killing and kidnapping Donetsk children. That's Slovak left for you.

4. The protests are, however, coming mostly from people who already support the opposition parties. The polls haven't moved an inch since September, aside from a 1-2 point fall for Matovič and a 2-3 point rise for PS that might as well be noise. Which is kind of impressive, honestly.

5. Pellegrini officially launched his presidential campaign.

It's mostly the expected meaningless feelgood fluff about Hardworking Ordinary People , his family, his stints as minister and PM, his meetings with world leaders, we need to unite and not to divide , EU and NATO good, EU and NATO making decisions behind our backs bad, we need to help pensioners, we need to help families with children and so on. His slogan is Slovakia needs calm already.

For what it's worth, Korčok released an ad calling Pellegrini Fico's bag carrier.

6. lol Danko. He lost his driver's licence. Also the police gave him a breathalyzer test and it was all clear... because they took it a day after the accident. That caused such a scandal that the Minister of Interior promised to launch an inquiry and publicly release the CCTV footage of Andrej's little traffic light encounter.

[Storr]

Some news.

1. Related to the above:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1747316359430619601

As the tweet says, Radačovský is an MP elected on the SNS list, although he got in only after the election when two other elected-with-SNS-but-not-from-SNS MPs got appointed ministers, and an MEP elected on the ĽSNS list; the other ĽSNS MEP was Milan Uhrík, now leader of Republika. He's the leader of his own one-man band of a far-right party, Slovak Patriot. He also declared he's going to run for President, saying he wants to get the 15 MPs' signatures he needs from SNS and Smer.

Also, one amazing bit that the tweet doesn't mention is "if we Slavs unite, one day we'll turn everything from Tatras to Šumava to La Manche into a lawn."

90s Easter...excuse me Central Europe, cocaine, and illegal firearms? *pretends to be shocked*




Radačovský's opinion on the death penalty:

"Today, the whole nation is against the death penalty, but if they announced the execution on the square in Bratislava, everyone would run there to see it. And the journalists would be the first ones there. I also used to think that the death penalty was the worst. But a life sentence is worse. That's torture. Imagine that you are thirty years old and then you are in one room for ten, twenty years and you are also guarded so that you don't hurt yourself. That is something terrible. Does the state have the power to torture people?"

[DavidB.]

So this guy is an MEP and an MP simultaneously? Never heard of that combo before - I'm surprised there are no EU or Slovak rules preventing this.

[RGM2609]

I was also wondering, what made Korcok such a popular/powerful figure that the anti-Fico parties united behind his candidacy sort of by default after Caputova decided not to run again?