The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr

That's impossible. He's at 69% nationally and he won the state big. Junk poll.

There's a difference between approval rating (% that think he's doing a good job) and favorability rating (% who think he's a good guy). The latter is usually higher than the former.

I guess you missed the fact that I was mocking the Washington Post poll mentioned above.

[Rowan]

Marist

Approve 55%(-1)
Disapprove 31%(+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/427-majority-approves-of-obamas-job-performance/

[Rowan]

Florida-Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_april_23_2009

[Rowan]

I would like to know what his approval is for each D, R, and I but they don't list it. Nonetheless, it doesn't look like a bad poll.

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

[Rowan]

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

Democrats are fine at 93%, Independents are fine at 67% with few Undecideds, Republicans could be off by about 5-10%. If this poll stands out for high Republican support, Rasmussen stands out for his crappy insisting that Indies split 50-50 atm.

Independents are fine at 67%? No one else even has it that close. I would really like to see how many of these Independents disapprove in that poll, but of course they don't show that. How do you know if there are few undecideds?

[Rowan]

Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

[Rowan]

Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!

I must say that those are some... interesting... results.

Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave

It's probably because black Democrats in Georgia(a high percentage of the total electorate) are more likely to strongly approve of Obama than white Democrats in Florida are.

[Rowan]

Illinois- PPP

Approve 61%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_428.pdf

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the IVR pollsters are getting lower approval ratings.

[Rowan]

Maybe the "bradley effect" is finally showing up, this time on approval ratings.

[Rowan]

Those look like reasonable polls. He is a few points higher in the states than the percentage he won in the election, which is what should be expected.

[Rowan]

WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291

Hey at least they were able to find 1% of blacks that disapproved, CBSNews found 0.

[Rowan]

Utah (Dan Jones/KSL-TV/Deseret News)

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6306801

How come Utah is giving Obama good numbers considering how deeply red (Atlas:Blue) it is?

Because it's a crap poll.

[Rowan]

Why is Suffolk polling Florida? Geez...

[Rowan]

Georgia- Research 2000/Kos

Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/29/GA/291

[Rowan]

FYI, Rasmussen April Party ID:

D 38.7%(nc)
R 32.6%(-0.6%)
I 28.7%(+0.6%)

These are the changes from March. Republicans went lower and Indies went up.

[Rowan]

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

[Rowan]

It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Then all of their favorables are way too high.

[Rowan]

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

[Rowan]

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

But it's kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008.

[Rowan]

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

[Rowan]

Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

Crap, they're showing what most other pollsters are. They're so terrible...

Right. And by most other pollsters you mean CBS and WAPO? Thanks for playing.

[Rowan]

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

[Rowan]

I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.

It's not the Bradley Effect(learn what it actually is first). Can you give me an explanation why the numbers vary so widely?

[Rowan]

Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.

He's actually up to +5 on the Stronglys. Still, Rasmussen has been inclined to just bounce around its preferred number for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down tomorrow.

Based on the internals actually, it is most likely to go up tomorrow to 58% or either stay the same at 57%...