The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote.

in the last election or in 2012?  And Rasmussen lacks the magic powers necessary to come up with any kind of reasonable voter model four years before an election occurs

Don't underestimate Scotty. Who knows what his LV screen is.

[Rowan]

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

No...

No? He had 52-46, the final result was 53-46.

[Rowan]

one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away

I am no way saying that his poll is perfect right now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that at all. My personal preference would be for registered voters polls. But to say he didn't nail the final result in 2008, is just ignoring the facts.

[Rowan]

Georgia-SurveyUSA

Approve 54%
Disapprove 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a96fd956-46f4-49e8-b3d5-c8abb3d47a0e

[Rowan]

Virginia- Rasmussen

Approve 56%
Disapprove 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_april_15_2009

Illinois- Rasmussen

Approve 67%
Disapprove 33%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/toplines/toplines_illinois_april_14_2009

[Rowan]

0% of people in Virginia have no opinion or are undecided about Obama?

Okay Scott...

He gives the "somewhat" option that other pollsters don't. This draws more people into giving some type of opinion.

[Rowan]

Who knows. Maybe an outlier, maybe a political shift!?

Or a junk uni poll.

[Rowan]

Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

[Rowan]

Massachusetts- Rasmussen

Approve 58%
Disapprove 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_likely_voters_april_16_2009

Cue the Rasmussen bashing in 3, 2, 1...

[Rowan]

Colorado- PPP

Approve 49%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_421.pdf

[Rowan]

How dare those Colorado voters not like the Messiah! Junk poll!!

[Rowan]

You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.

He said "a shot." He didn't say that Obama would lose Colorado.

[Rowan]

New Jersey- Strategic Vision
Approve 58%
Disapprove 35%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_042209.htm

[Rowan]

I think the major difference in approval ratings and why they are lower for Rasmussen and PPP is that they both use IVR while most other pollsters still use live callers.

[Rowan]

PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen???

[Rowan]

PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen???

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!

[Rowan]

PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen???

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!

Who are ''the Democrats''?

Obamabots.

[Rowan]

PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen???

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

A poll for an election is different to a poll for approval though.

Translation: When it shows what I want it's a good pollster, when it doesn't, it's trash.

[Rowan]

Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.

[Rowan]

Rasmussen and "National Non-Daily Polls" are going down, no? Obviously the All polls trend estimate is being affected by the Gallup. Isn't "National Non-Daily Polls" everything except Gallup and Rasmussen? And is that not going down?

[Rowan]

Gallup is insane. They were awful in the 2008 election.

[Rowan]

21% Republicans? Why do they even make polls like this? I am supposed to believe that in less than a month since their last poll, 4 percent of Americans have gone from being Republicans to Independent? There's no other reason for these polls except to shape public opinion. It really is disingenuous.

[Rowan]

That 36% is crock sh**t and you know it. That 67% number is horse sh**t as well.

Even Kos has Obama at 23% favorable among Republicans so there's no way in Hell that he is at 36% approval. Who the  did they poll, the Specter family?

[Rowan]

That 36% is crock sh**t and you know it. That 67% number is horse sh**t as well.

Only Rasmussen shows Obama tied among Independents. All other polls show him up by 2:1 among Independents. There is no f*****g way Obama is tied with Independents right now. Same with Republicans. Only Rasmussen and PPP (?!) have him at about 20% or lower.

Okay, let's see how accurate that is:

Independents
Fox News(4/22)- 57%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-58%
Harris(4/23)- 58%
ARG(4/23)-53%
PPP(4/19)-54%
Rasmussen(4/26)-50%
Marist(4/1)-53%
Cook/RT(4/8-4/11)-55%
CBS(4/1-4/5)-63%

Republicans
Fox News(4/22)-24%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-30%
Harris(4/23)-22%
ARG(4/21)- 17%
PPP(4/19)-18%
Cook/RT(4/8-4/11)-30%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-29%
CBS(4/1-4/5)-31%
Marist(4/1)-25%
Quinnipiac(3/24-3/30)-25%

Okay, so here's what I notice from this list. Only one other polling firm even has him above 60%(just barely) among Independents. This means that the WAPO poll is clearly out on it's own in this regard. Yeah, some(not even close to all) of them are near 2-1 but they aren't anywhere close to 67% which is just absurd. I even doubt the WAPO poll is 2-1 among Independents, more likely 2.5-1 or 3-1. Then, we go to the Republicans. This again is the highest number found. If you take an average of the other polls that I have listed, you get an average approval among Republicans of 25.1%, a far cry from the 36%. Heck, even the Pollster.com trend line average is 23.8%. To say this poll is not way out of the mainstream is just wrong.

[Rowan]

Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr

That's impossible. He's at 69% nationally and he won the state big. Junk poll.