The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681

[Rowan]

Rasmussen New York

Approve 65%
Disapprove 34%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/new_york/toplines/toplines_ny_governor_march_11_2009

[Rowan]

Pew Poll Obama Approval

Approve 59%(-5%)
Disapprove 26%(+9%)

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/498.pdf

[Rowan]

CNN Obama Approval

Approve 64%(-3)
Disapprove 34%(+5)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/16/obama.poll/index.html

[Rowan]

NPR Obama Approval

Approve 59%
Disapprove 35%

http://media.npr.org/documents/2009/mar/nprpoll/nprpoll_interview.pdf

[Rowan]

Arizona - Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

The numbers are in the premium crosstabs.

[Rowan]

Probably because Rasmussen uses a LV screen while Gallup uses adults.

[Rowan]

But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

[Rowan]

But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

The problem is that many of them won't be around to vote in 2012, while younger people who will be able to vote by then aren't polled.
So to use registered, or even worse likely, voters screen NOW is completely useless.

Wait, so you are saying people like Gallup are polling kids? LOL. They are polls ofadults. That means everyone is at least 18, which means that registered voters are a better gauge of a poll of a people that actually matter. If you don't vote, you don't matter.

[Rowan]

PPP Arkansas

Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_3241.pdf

[Rowan]

So he goes up in some states in SUSA but down in other states, and I really can't see any connection between the states either. Random.

[Rowan]

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Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?

Like I said, some of these are just really random, like Missouri went way up. You'd think it would be the opposite since you know, he lost the state. I have no idea why Iowa is dropping that much in a state he won by 10 points.

[Rowan]

Rasmussen bump seems to be only coming from Republicans(up to 29%) so I assume it is just a bad sample, as Obama is still under 50% with Indies.

[Rowan]

Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

It's because he is now at 32% among Republicans after being in the low 20's for the past month. Hard to tell if this is lasting change or just an outlier.

[Rowan]

Gallup Down:

Approve 59(-1)
Disapprove 30(nc)

Seems to me that Rasmussen must have a clear outlier if these two have the same approval as Gallup has been traditionally a few points higher than Rasmussen.

[Rowan]

Remember too, that Rasmussen's new April partisan targets will undoubtedly shift the numbers a bit, and I believe today's sample was the first sample with the new targets (even though it could have been yesterday):

Dems 38.7% (40.8%)
Reps 33.2% (33.6%)
Indys 28.1% (25.6%)

"Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 40.1% Democrats, 33.1% Republicans, and 26.7% unaffiliated."

He uses the average of the previous three months, not just the preceding month.

[Rowan]

I don’t think Rasmussen can poll Hispanics very well. He has Obama at 28/72 approval among them. LOL

[Rowan]

Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

[Rowan]

Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.

[Rowan]

Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.

Arrogant is too mild a word to describe George W. Bush's America.

If you want to live into a fantasy world where your country invades a sovereign nation under false pretenses, ignores and belittles its allies and precipitates the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and yet you admire it, then be my guest.

Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

[Rowan]

Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

[Rowan]

Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

While the crosstabs of this poll look very weird (young voters strongly disapprove of Obama, olds approve), I think the overall approval is more accurate for KY than what SUSA showed a week ago.

...

New York Times/CBS poll:

66% Approve
24% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 998 adults nationwide, interviewed by
telephone April 1-5, 2009.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_040609.pdf

I love the D+16 partisan split in this poll.

[Rowan]

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

[Rowan]

Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

[Rowan]

what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote.