NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[SCNCmod]

Any word on whether or not Jeff Jackson is running?

I assume he is, but haven't seen anything definitively saying he's jumping in.  If he does run, he is opposite from Cunningham regarding candidate quality (Cunningham always underperforms). 

It's really crazy how some people have a short memory, for the past twelve months many posters on this forum explained that Cunningham was not only going to win by a healthy margin (even after the minor scandal broke out), but also that he was going to overperform Biden significantly, and now many of these same posters are trashing him

Nothing crazy about thinking Cunningham is an overestimated candidate who doesn't connect well with the public .... and also thinking that he would defeat a very weak candidate like Tillis. 

I was very much hoping Jackson would be the candidate in 2020- and said many times that he would be a far stronger candidate than Cunningham.  But I also assumed Cunningham would defeat Tillis- mainly because Tillis is also a weak candidate, completely bland, super low name ID for a US Senator & because many polls seemed to indicate Cunningham was far ahead.

Not sure what the overperforming Biden significantly is referring to.

[Heebie Jeebie]

How would former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley do as a candidate in this race?  I've been hoping that Stein would be the nominee, but if he decides to wait for the 2024 gubernatorial race would Beasley be a good fit?

[VAR]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248628440.html

[WD]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248628440.html

Lean R still, closer to Likely than tossup.

[Xing]

I like Smith, but this is a less likely pick-up for Democrats than WI or PA (which are not likely to begin with), so Lean/Likely R.

[libertpaulian]

Reverend Barber needs to jump in.  Pastor vs. Pastor.

[wesmoorenerd]

Smith is not going to be the nominee.

[Sorenroy]

Smith is the only candidate that I regret not doing more for in the 2020 primary. I voted for her, but I didn't do much candidate-specific work leading up to the primary. Even if I had converted every voter in my country to a Smith voter, it wouldn't have changed the outcome of the race.

All that said, Jackson is a much better candidate than Cunningham and we might not be in the same base-mobilizing environment as we were last year, so I'm not sure if she's the candidate I will eventually back. I guess we'll have to see how Jackson and Smith decide to run and if there are any other candidates that jump into the race.

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully Jeff Jackson can keep it in his pants.

[Pollster]

I do wonder if Smith is underrated here as a potential candidate; she represented a fairly rural region where Democrats need to produce strong African American turnout in order to win statewide, and did a fairly good job holding down the district in what appears to have been a decently competitive re-election race in 2018.

[coloradocowboi]

Any word on whether or not Jeff Jackson is running?

I assume he is, but haven't seen anything definitively saying he's jumping in.  If he does run, he is opposite from Cunningham regarding candidate quality (Cunningham always underperforms). 

It's really crazy how some people have a short memory, for the past twelve months many posters on this forum explained that Cunningham was not only going to win by a healthy margin (even after the minor scandal broke out), but also that he was going to overperform Biden significantly, and now many of these same posters are trashing him

Neolibs gonna neolib. But from what I saw, leftists in the forum warned that Cunningham was self-centered and morally bankrupt from the beginning, and including through the times he was riding high in the polls.

Now, I think they are and were wrong about Erica Smith. She played a progressive well on TV, but all the while was paling around with GOP members of the state leg and corporate lobbyists. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't she also endorse a GOP candidate for something against a Dem? I'm not one of those "team player" ppl, but there is almost no excuse I can think of for supporting a Republican ever, under any circumstances, especially when you declare yourself a progressive. I get Tulsi vibes from her, and think she would be about as offputting to voters. I'm team Jackson on this one. Not even sure he can win this one though anyway

[prag_prog]

NC Dem bench looks so weak...I saw on twitter that Erica Smith is kinda crazy, apparently endorsed some Republicans in last cycle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC Dem bench looks so weak...I saw on twitter that Erica Smith is kinda crazy, apparently endorsed some Republicans in last cycle

I wouldn't underestimate D's in NC, we have a popular D Gov, with Ducey not going for Sen, we will have enough money to go on the offensive

It's a toxic Environment for Rs after Trump and insurrection that's why Hawley has fallen

Tossup GA, NC, WI and PA
Narrow advantage to INCUMBENT party AZ, NV, NH, and FL

[prag_prog]

NC Dem bench looks so weak...I saw on twitter that Erica Smith is kinda crazy, apparently endorsed some Republicans in last cycle

I wouldn't underestimate D's in NC, we have a popular D Gov, with Ducey not going for Sen, we will have enough money to go on the offensive

It's a toxic Environment for Rs after Trump and insurrection that's why Hawley has fallen

Tossup GA, NC, WI and PA
Narrow advantage to INCUMBENT party AZ, NV, NH, and FL

There definitely is ton of uncertainity regarding what the political environment is gonna be in 2022..as of right now, my ratings would be PA as tossup, NC & WI as Lean R, AZ & NV as Lean D, FL as Likely R and NH as Tilt D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson will lose

[Not Me, Us]

NC Dem bench looks so weak...I saw on twitter that Erica Smith is kinda crazy, apparently endorsed some Republicans in last cycle

Smith is pretty bad, but the NC Dem bench is pretty solid. We have Jeff Jackson waiting in the wings, plus Josh Stein. And after 2020, we added a couple of fairly young members of Congress. I'd say NC's Dem bench is better than average, especially for a Trump state.

[MT Treasurer]

I do wonder if Smith is underrated here as a potential candidate; she represented a fairly rural region where Democrats need to produce strong African American turnout in order to win statewide, and did a fairly good job holding down the district in what appears to have been a decently competitive re-election race in 2018.

I agree with this. I don’t think she’s as 'crazy' or inept as people are making her out to be, and she was right about some of the Democratic failures in last year's Senate race / the Democrats' inability to win NC at the federal level more generally:

https://prospect.org/politics/what-went-wrong-in-north-carolina-interview-erica-smith/
https://morningconsult.com/2019/06/06/erica-smith-thom-tillis-north-carolina-senate-race/

She’d probably have been favored to win an open seat in another Trump midterm. I suspect the national environment will be too much for Democrats to overcome here, but I don’t see how this is less promising a target for Democrats than WI.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

What about Deborah Ross again now that she's a sitting congresswoman?

[Rookie Yinzer]

What about Deborah Ross again now that she's a sitting congresswoman?

Yeah.... she’s already lost once. She’s not going to give up her seat that fast for another potential failed bid.

[Coldstream]

I do wonder if Smith is underrated here as a potential candidate; she represented a fairly rural region where Democrats need to produce strong African American turnout in order to win statewide, and did a fairly good job holding down the district in what appears to have been a decently competitive re-election race in 2018.

I agree with this. I don’t think she’s as 'crazy' or inept as people are making her out to be, and she was right about some of the Democratic failures in last year's Senate race / the Democrats' inability to win NC at the federal level more generally:

https://prospect.org/politics/what-went-wrong-in-north-carolina-interview-erica-smith/
https://morningconsult.com/2019/06/06/erica-smith-thom-tillis-north-carolina-senate-race/

She’d probably have been favored to win an open seat in another Trump midterm. I suspect the national environment will be too much for Democrats to overcome here, but I don’t see how this is less promising a target for Democrats than WI.

This is a bit further than I think is fair. By 2022 it’ll have been four years since the Democrats last won a Senate seat in Wisconsin, and 14 since they last won one in North Carolina. Whilst the Democrats have won the presidential vote in Wisconsin in every election bar one in the last 32 years - whilst in that same time they’ve won North Carolina once. NC should be fought given how close it was in 2020 and Wisconsin obviously isn’t as D-leaning as it once was - but it’s still a far softer target even with an incumbent imo.

[Ferguson97]

Mark Walker wins by ~5 points

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I don't know why people think NC is more likely to flip than WI. WI is a bluer state, and incumbency means nothing if your incumbent is weak and unpopular

[Stuart98]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

[KaiserDave]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jeff Jackson is in. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article248608500.html

He couldn’t have done this a year ago? Ugh

There was speculation here (and journalistic rumours elsewhere) that Schumer did not 'okay' his candidacy because of skeletons in the closet. Him choosing to run now probably debunks that and makes the recruitment of Cunningham look like an even more bizarre decision.