PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1362566508715651075?s=20

Didn’t expect him to get in. Endorsed.

Also endorsed. I was for Fetterman initially but hate how poorly he’s responded to the news around the jogger incident. I think Houlahan / Dean / Wild could all be good but I’m really bullish these days on running black candidates in swing states with sizable black populations / turnout issues.

[Meatball Ron]

Endorsements are flooding in for Malcolm. The PA Working Families Party has already endorsed him. I’m very excited to see him running, truth be told. If we had RCV, he’d be my second preference easily. I think we are in really good hands here in PA.

How do you peg the odds of Lamb, Houlahan, Wild, Dean getting in (each one individually)?

[Meatball Ron]

Unless the Philly establishment machine unites behind Kenyatta, this probably helps Conor Lamb more than anything since it means the progressive vote will be split.  If another noteworthy Philly or Philly burbs candidate gets in, he’s probably at least the slight frontrunner (unless Cartwright also jumps in).  

Disagree. Historically, PA Dem primaries are along geographic lines, not ideological ones. Kenyatta would have the advantage in a Kenyatta vs. Lamb vs. Fetterman primary because the (already smaller) Western vote would be split.

He also doesn’t have a uniquely compelling profile which Fetterman may or may not have.  What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

Err...you can debate the general election viability of Kenyatta versus other candidates, but it's a bit of a stretch to say a 30-year old black man who'd be the first openly gay male Senator in history doesn't have a "uniquely compelling profile"

What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

The electoral argument is that Pennsylvania is a turnout state, not a persuasion state, and that Kenyatta (who is very well-known in his community, often on a first-name basis with constituents) would see higher African American turnout in the Philly area - replicating Biden's path to victory in the state. Despite all the hype, Biden didn't really over-perform in the ancestral Dem / WWC areas of the state, and just because Fetterman is big and dressed-down doesn't mean he would either. I think there's a stronger argument for why Lamb / Cartwright would over-perform slightly in those areas, but given the raw number of voters, I'm not sure it'd be enough, especially if black turnout is lower with them. The gubernatorial nominee is also going to be a generic white dude; we need to give younger and POC voters a reason to turn out.

[Meatball Ron]

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

Stacey Abrams has given us the framework for organizing, specifically in black communities. We know that midterms come down to turnout and no matter who the Democrats nominate, we need every vote possible. We have a ton of votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Montco/Bucks/Delco that are heavily favorable for Dems. A lot of those voters are black. Organizers in PA know this, specifically the ones working in those areas. There's a compelling case to make that Fetterman can help win back WWC voters in places like Erie and Luzerne and Lackawanna but that's inherently an uphill battle because they've already demonstrated willingness to vote for Trumpist candidates. Winning black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh and the collar counties is inherently favorable towards Democrats and just comes down to turnout. If Kenyatta is the type of person who can turn those people out, his case is equally compelling.

Great post!

[Meatball Ron]

but he is also an open Democratic Socialist. That may strike some fear into the hearts of some voters. I'm not trying to make an electoral case against Fetterman, but just give you a fuller scope of where the shortcomings may lie and where Kenyatta might be stronger.

Yeah - I think socialist / AOC type attacks that we saw in 2020 congressional races could land on Fetterman unfortunately given how open he's been with that label - would blunt any inroads he'll supposedly make in Obama-Trump areas, and potentially hurt a bit in the suburbs as well

[Meatball Ron]

So now this leaves outstanding questions on Arkoosh (who I read is preparing to imminently announce a run for Senate, though I can't remember where I read that--I'll try to find a source if I can), Boyle, Houlahan, Wild, Lamb (who has expressed interest in running), Kenney, maybe Sestak, maybe Innamorato, maybe Fiedler, maybe Gym, maybe Lee, I mean that's a crazy amount of candidates to have for just one seat. You'd think that at least a couple of the smaller fish among those names would either run for LG or just sit this one out altogether, but it does seem like a lot of folks are looking at this like their only shot to elevate for quite some time.

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Gym? I've tried googling around but can't find anything. Thought this might be a nickname for Jim Kenney (in the way that people call Jim Jordan "Gym" - though that's more due to the wrestling issues) but you listed Kenney separately so feels like that's not it.

[Meatball Ron]

So now this leaves outstanding questions on Arkoosh (who I read is preparing to imminently announce a run for Senate, though I can't remember where I read that--I'll try to find a source if I can), Boyle, Houlahan, Wild, Lamb (who has expressed interest in running), Kenney, maybe Sestak, maybe Innamorato, maybe Fiedler, maybe Gym, maybe Lee, I mean that's a crazy amount of candidates to have for just one seat. You'd think that at least a couple of the smaller fish among those names would either run for LG or just sit this one out altogether, but it does seem like a lot of folks are looking at this like their only shot to elevate for quite some time.

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Gym? I've tried googling around but can't find anything. Thought this might be a nickname for Jim Kenney (in the way that people call Jim Jordan "Gym" - though that's more due to the wrestling issues) but you listed Kenney separately so feels like that's not it.

There is a Philly Councilmember called Helen Gym. It's a Korean name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Gym

Ah, thanks. Hadn't seen her name on any of the lists or other speculation

[Meatball Ron]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

[Meatball Ron]

1) I would love to see Kenyatta drop down and run against Evans.  I actually think he’d have a better shot there. 

What's wrong with Evans? He seems like a pretty run-of-the-mill Congressional Dem (more on the progressive side given CPC membership and M4A support), and other than a few very minor controversies from his days as State Rep, I'm not seeing anything related to corruption or other major issues. I may just not be informed enough though, he's pretty low-profile as far as I can tell.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Kenyatta in higher office - US Senate, House, a statewide PA office, really anything, as he's one of my favorite politicians right now. Just curious if there's an issue with Evans.

[Meatball Ron]

Good Politico article about Fetterman and his campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/16/john-fetterman-profile-2022-senate-politics-pennsylvania-481259

I think it's a pretty fair assessment of Fetterman's strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. The points about Fetterman's weak relationships with progressive groups is an interesting one, and one I can attest to, even as a supporter. A few weeks ago, there an organizing meeting for Our Revolution PA which I was a part of. Larry Krasner gave a quick speech, and Malcolm Kenyatta and another Senate candidate named Alex Khalil were both in the Zoom call live (Kenyatta gave a very good speech). But Fetterman wasn't there in-person, he only had a quick pre-recorded message. It isn't a big deal for me, but it did seem like Kenyatta cared a lot more about connecting with activists than Fetterman.

The article is mostly good but I don't think it spends nearly enough time on the jogger incident - a couple quick mentions but should have been more of a focus. I don't think this is going away this time - establishment Dems, especially black people, that I've talked to in PA (or followed on social media) are really angry about how he's responded and failed to apologize or take any accountability. I understand it's complex, some think it's a non-issue b/c Miyares endorsed him (while maintaining that he lied), or some will point to his reelections in Braddock after the incident (extremely low voter turnout). One way or another, it should be covered in more detail.

[Meatball Ron]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

Fetterman isn't establishment though - he's also positioning himself as part of the progressive wing (admittedly, with a blind spot on environmental issues), and in his past campaigns he's always been an insurgent candidate / he has poor relationships with party leadership. The establishment mantle would be held by whomever of Dean / Houlahan / Lamb runs; Arkoosh is also running as a more typical establishment candidate but not sure how much of a player she'll be.

As for the general election liability question - I agree Fetterman is a huge one. Not because he's "establishment" or "leftist" (or because he's white, obviously), but because he's trying to appeal to a group of voters (Obama-Trump WWC) that is largely gone for the party, while taking positions / stylizing himself in such a way that could alienate the more important demos (Philly-area POC + suburban voters). Not saying those voters won't like him by and large, but if their turnout is down even a little, or even a small portion swings against him, that's game over in this extremely close state.

[Meatball Ron]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1389694573941862404

Rescenthaler endorses Parnell

I was certain he was running for Senate. Welp, Parnell isn't a terrible candidate, I guess.

Wait, yes he is. He's an MTG redux and it would be easy to hammer him for his very vocal role in promoting the Big Lie (not to mention, never having conceded his own race). I'm not as bullish as some Dems on our chances in this race, but it feels extremely unlikely that Parnell could win statewide; he'd do sooooo poorly in the Philly burbs. Reschenthaler likely would've been the best candidate here.

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

Counter point to that: PA-17 is a mostly suburban district. Pittsburgh and Philly burbs aren't the exact same, but he's proven to do well in the suburbs

Yeah I wasn't talking so much about rural versus suburban as the difference in character between Philly burbs and Pittsburgh burbs. But we'll see!

[Meatball Ron]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

Have you ever written a post making any point other than "Atlas Dems are hacks"?

I'm not even saying you're wrong, just that man, the shtick has to be a little tiring.

[Meatball Ron]

Smh @ Dean/Houlahan. Don't they realize we can't save both of them in redistricting?

why not? Houlahan is mostly Chester and Dean is mostly Montco. Given the fact that both won by double digits in 2020 (Dean nearly 20%), I don't see a problem for either of them.

Yeah, it’s Wild and/or Cartwright who’ll be in trouble (as well as potentially Lamb)

[Meatball Ron]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

[Meatball Ron]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

Eh, if 2020 taught me anything, it's that fundraising means next to nothing.

Raising tons (a la McGrath, Harrison) doesn't mean you'll win or even over-perform, but raising next to nothing in a competitive primary against folks with much higher name recognition is a pretty good indicator for losing / under-performing. There's some nuance to this; it's not as simple as fundraising "does" or "doesn't" matter.

[Meatball Ron]

I think NEPA, Erie, and Centre counties are pretty much going to decide this primary, so I wouldn't be surprised to see candidates campaigning heavily in those areas.

Is the logic that Fetterman/Lamb splitting the SW PA vote is neutralized in a way by Kenyatta/Arkoosh splitting the SE PA vote (with SE PA providing a larger base of votes, but the SE PA candidates being weaker overall), leaving NE PA, Erie, and Centre as the areas that a) have a meaningful # of Dem voters b) do not have a Democratic candidate with a home field advantage?

If so - that'll be fascinating - essentially removing geographic advantages from the equation altogether. Seems good for Fetterman as the candidate with the highest name rec / only one to hold statewide office, but we'll see.

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

"Gaslighting is when someone disagrees with me"

Let's see: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=354485.0

Am I wrong, or do you just don't like that I'm disputing this attempt to rewrite this forum's awful track record?

Parnell lost by 2 in a district that is now more left-leaning than the state as a whole. It would literally just take a shift of 1-2 points in the national environment, or a 1-2 point R trend for Pennsylvania specifically, for Parnell to win a statewide race. It is completely ridiculous to say he doesn't "have a prayer" because of... once again, this completely wishful idea that Republican voters only turnout for Trump, or that the district is easier for Parnell to win in.

I literally was not talking about whether Parnell over- or under-performed (tbh I agree w/ you that he over-performed expectations and that CraneHusband's / ConcernedCitizen's characterization of the race / district is wrong, though I disagree with your extrapolation that that makes him a good statewide candidate). I was just mocking your choice of the word "gaslighting" which has to be the most over-used word in the English language right now. It has a niche definition - the attempt to psychologically manipulate someone into questioning their own sanity / self-worth - but people (mostly on the left, actually - though apparently based on your post it spans the ideological spectrum) tend to use it to mean someone says something they don't like.

[Meatball Ron]

I can't stand Fetterman (I think his lack of remorse / apology related to the gun incident displays a lack of racial awareness that we don't need in the party right now, and I am generally averse to the "look at me" / always online / show horse over workhorse brand of politics), BUT I actually think he's a better option than Lamb. Lamb's slight underperformance last year concerns me, and I generally don't think he'd be able to excite voters to get the turnout we need. That said - PA's successful statewide Dem candidates (Wolf, Casey, Shapiro) are all relatively serious / "unexciting" so maybe I'm wrong here. I don't think either candidate will be particularly strong with POC (relative to Dem baseline) so that is a wash. I also think Fetterman would be a more reliable vote if actually elected to the Senate (I think concerns that Lamb would be "another Sinema" are overblown but generally I don't want to have to worry about securing the votes in our own caucus).

It's a real shame that it comes down to these two - Kenyatta, Dean, and Houlahan would be orders of magnitude better.

[Meatball Ron]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

Look, I’m the guy who called Nina Turner a radical socialist. But Kenyatta isn’t a radical socialist. He’s just a Warren Progressive type

He was a pretty ardent Biden supporter in the primary too

This and electability concerns are the reasons I'm supporting Fetterman. I like Kenyatta, but it's weird that he would support progressive policy while also being strongly for Biden over Bernie or Warren. It makes me think his beliefs aren't that genuine.

Eh, I don't think this is a fair critique at all - my policy beliefs are more in-line with those of Bernie/Warren, but I preferred Harris over both of them in the primary (and I preferred Biden over Bernie, but not over Warren). So I wouldn't say it's a matter of genuineness - rather, it's that policy isn't the only factor; some people also like to look at leadership skills, coalition-building abilities, etc. when evaluating candidates. I knew that Biden would get us closer to Bernie's agenda than Bernie himself ever could - seeing as how ineffective the guy has been in Congress and his poor relationships with other legislators.

[Meatball Ron]

Lamb's campaign is already looking like a Major Yikes.

Ideally Fetterman and The Progressives hold his feet to the fire for this lack of support for Pelosi, since that's what seems to work best.

Is the fact that John Fetterman held an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint, and continually tries to justify / refuses to apologize for it, really not disqualifying for you?

I support Kenyatta, FWIW, and also prefer Arkoosh to either of the frontrunners, and would have preferred Dean or Houlahan over either of the frontrunners, but if it comes down to just the two frontrunners, which I suspect it will, I do feel that it has to be Lamb over Fetterman because of the jogger incident (and more importantly, Fetterman's present-day response). Fetterman cannot be trusted to protect black lives. If he gave a serious, mea culpa speech, and decided to center his campaign on issues of racial justice, I'd certainly reconsider.

Also, I feel that Fetterman is a caricature of what blue state Dems think Trump voters look like / want their politicians to look like. The guy has been the face of the opposition to the idea that PA's election was stolen; I can assure you he isn't converting any Trump voters. Not saying he would necessarily lose, but I hate these phony arguments in favor of his supposed electoral prowess.

[Meatball Ron]

If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead.

Kenyatta wouldn't run against Sims - they are the first and second openly gay people elected to the PA House, and more importantly, they're friends. I'd say more likely Kenyatta runs for PA-03 at some point in the future, or Sharif Street's State Senate district.