Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Person Man]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

That's basically how I was predicting 2020 going to go before the pandemic hit. All the data suggested more or less the outcome we eventually arrived at pretty well (that Trump was going to lose by 4-5%, the Senate would be a tossup, and the House would be closer than expected, except that it was Georgia that flipped and not NC or Florida). I was still thinking that the block of swing voters that Dems need to get over 48% and the GOP over 46% would swing uniformely and either give Dems a blowout victory or the Republicans a narrow sweep. This is what I think happened but I think the lurking variable was that no one was expecting a couple of million waiters, bellhops, dishwashers, and carnies, many of them PoCs, to sneakily spam the polls for Trump because of quarantine and public health measures.

[Person Man]

I don’t think any of this changes is that if and only if Youngkin wins then there were many missing Democrats and hidden Republicans.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/terrymcauliffe/status/1448499318676131842?s=21

If these people walked to the front desk of any Trump hotel, Trump would have them immediately escorted out.

They are the tenants of the lands of many of the Trump Hotel’s clients.

[Person Man]

Parents have a right to vote for politicians and board members who fit their values.  Parent's don't have a right to storm into board meetings and demand certain things be taught.  This has become a pattern among the GOP over the last 20 years, starting with GWB. 

Didn't like the Florida recount?  No problem storm the recount facility.

Didn't like the 2020 election results?  Storm the Capitol. 

Don't like what politicians say?  Just follow Lindsey Graham around the airport until he's intimidated enough?  (granted some extremist Dems are doing this to Sinema now too...)

Don't like School Boards?  Storm school board meetings. 

The problem with the modern GOP is that the base thinks they know best for society despite being the least educated/qualified members of society.  So they use intimidation and threats of violence to try to get accomplished what they can't at the ballot box.

Wasn’t this iteration of the GOP (post-Iraq, post-W, post-Lehman) basically started when the TEA Party demonstrators started storming congressional outreach meetings?

[Person Man]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

Those words mean different things to different people.

For Republican retirees and younger single activists, "parental rights" is a culture war fetish.
For Democrats it is January 6th protestors coming to their town.

For everyone in the middle, it is nightmare they wish would end. However genuine the anti-woke backlash, and all you have to do is look at the reaction to the pathetic attempts to cancel Chapelle to see there is the kindling for a real one, and a seismic one at that - the "parental rights movement" has been thoroughly hijacked by the usual suspects and is increasingly indistinguishable from the same people who did Tea Party/Birthirism stuff in 2009. In Northern VA it is literally the usual suspects, and it is just them because they have been allowed to scare everyone else off.

Democrats here are delusional to think this was not a real issue in the spring, is not still a real issue, and not one which will return if they do not deal with the underlying causes.

But Republicans are delusional not to realize that this was not tens of millions of Biden voting college educated liberal parents suddenly embracing all the shibboleths of talk radio. And that by adopting the imagery, slogans, and personalities of a media and language they associate with white trash, the entire movement and issue has been tarnished.

I have yet to see in any of the coverage or polling evidence that actual Biden voters are defecting over this stuff now. And why should they? Its been hijacked.

That’s the problem for Republicans. A lot of reasonable concerns are being ignored because of how irresponsible the Republican Party has become. It’s the same reason Democrats are becoming unpopular. A lot of pragmatic progressive and popular  ideas are now considered “gateway drugs” to bizarre and avoidable undue burdens on livelihoods and businesses, various types of reverse discrimination, and not just tolerating or even accepting what they find a little weird or creepy but actively encouraging people to be dysfunctional.

The flip side to this is that a lot of good conservative ideas are now just considered a path to the trailer park.

[Person Man]

McAuliffe is kind of a Democratic Trump.  Fairly moderate on an actual policy level, but constantly having personal scandals and putting his foot in his mouth.

What personal scandals?  Has he been cheating on his wife?  Has he molested any models or other younger women while I was sleeping?  

The only thing he has done that might have raised eyebrows was when he wrestled an alligator years ago, but apart from that I am at a loss.....  

He’s pretty cool, then.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

What is a more typical PVI at this point? This sounds high.

[Person Man]

This seems decidedly toxic. George Soros is now being the scapegaot for... school board members? Really? Youngkin is trash.

https://twitter.com/BruceLeshan/status/1450912585205833735

You can’t have a gamer tag with “Soros” in Call of Duty for a reason.

[Person Man]

Wonder if WaPo will release a VA poll this time around, they did two in October 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/a-week-before-election-day-new-poll-finds-tightening-race-for-va-governor/2017/10/31/61190912-bd7d-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

Some of these quotes really are like deja vu; just change out GIllepsie for Youngkin and things like MS-13 for CRT and boom, same race lmao.

"But they may be effective — appealing to “Build That Wall” Trump voters as well as suburbanites unnerved by brutal slayings attributed to the gang."

"Those numbers suggest that Gillespie, who has struggled at times with Virginia’s purple-state politics in the Trump era, has successfully threaded the needle with his ads"

"In a sign that Democrats fear that Gillespie’s message is breaking through,"

"We have a very competitive race, largely about mobilizing the base” for each candidate, "

"Among registered voters, an identical 71 percent of both Northam and Gillespie supporters say they are certain to vote or have already done so,"

The difference now is that Virginia is a D+4 states instead of a D+1 state but that instead of a Republican who can’t get anything done, we have a Democrat who can’t get anything done.

[Person Man]

Anyway, Harris was in VA last night.

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1451322796471169035

So Republicans are making it an issue to protect people who are rioting?

I think you meant to quote the DOJ thing but yes, basically. Essentially the GOP is mad that the DOJ is going after these deranged lunatics going to school board meetings looking to threaten people. GOP trying to create a narrative that DOJ is going "after" "concerned parents" which is not at all what is going on.

Again, not sure how this is playing in the suburbs, but I don't imagine the lunatics going to school board meetings and yelling about masks and how they're going to "get" school board members is supposed to help GOP?

Thanks. Don't know how that happened. Phones, right?

[Person Man]

Anyway, Harris was in VA last night.

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1451322796471169035

So Republicans are making it an issue to protect people who are rioting?

I think you meant to quote the DOJ thing but yes, basically. Essentially the GOP is mad that the DOJ is going after these deranged lunatics going to school board meetings looking to threaten people. GOP trying to create a narrative that DOJ is going "after" "concerned parents" which is not at all what is going on.

Again, not sure how this is playing in the suburbs, but I don't imagine the lunatics going to school board meetings and yelling about masks and how they're going to "get" school board members is supposed to help GOP?

They're showing "passion".

[Person Man]

Talk about gaffes, Youngkin's personal instinct is a "no" on same-sex marriage:

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1451506339931463680

Awkward. It probably means he would lead from behind on any new attempts at for a DOM law.

[Person Man]

Even Liz Cheney, who represents one of the most conservative states in the country, supports same sex marriage.

“I personally am opposed, but I don’t think there should be laws against it” is a reasonable belief. My guess is that when you combine the amount of people who oppose SSM in VA with the amount of people who oppose it personally but not legally, you get close to half the state population

Non issue

I mean that’s my stance and I am a partisan Democrat.

I think it’s wrong to not give people their civil rights and allowing gay people to be married is a civil right but I’m not 100% comfortable with a church I go to officiating a gay marriage though I would think it would be great if they were blessed and I do recognize that just a few years ago, I would have had trouble getting married.

[Person Man]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

I can't imagine his organization targeting anything but Likely D Biden voters at this point.  They usually switch over to lean D and undecideds during the final week of the election.  

I remember when I worked for a PAC re-electing Corzine after Obama had won in 2008.  We had tons of new voter data from the Obama 2.0 campaign helping us target lean Ds.  I was berated on the phones every single day by Democrats and lean D independents that were sick tax increases.  It's all they cared about. We made no headway in suburban communities.  Didn't matter if they were African American, Hispanic or White.  

Lol I find it very hard to believe you would ever work for a Democrat.

I was just finishing college at the time, and I needed a job.  I was also elected VP of the Democrat Party at my school, and held debate events and a campus television show with Republicans.  I probably could have made a career in politics with the Democrat Party after the 2009 election.  I was very good at it.  My boss used me for every important task.  As soon as the 2009 race ended, he wanted me to go with him to Texas to start working on groundwork for the 2010 campaign.  

People change man.  Also I had a libertarian and green party phase, but the former literally believed in having no government and open borders, and the latter had no idea how to organize or strategize.    

I understand that people change but it really brings things into question if you do a political 180 that quickly. Not that there has to be some nefarious reason why. Let’s get back to the governor’s race.

[Person Man]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410
But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

The article is basically saying that it is still an uphill battle for the Republicans and Dems still have the advantage. It really didn't tell us anything that we did not already know nor did they really convince me that race has fundamentally changed all that much.

That's what most blue avatars say as well.

If anything the main takeaway from this article for me is that despite everything that has gone wrong for dems Glenn Youngkin is still failing to either take the lead or at least turn the race into a tossup. I'm sorry, but at this point in the race neither Glenn Youngkin or his supporters should be celebrating the fact that he is still behind Terry Mcauliffe.

The Republicans can spin it as much as they like, but at some point being behind is not going to cut it for Glenn Youngkin if he really wants to win this. The reality for Youngkin is that if he is still failing to take the lead in this race a few days from now than it is probably over for him and Terry Mcauliffe is heading for a victory.

Yeah, TM likely is, it's a D+10 state after all. I care more about 2022, and possible swings or the lack thereof in VA/NJ will tell us something.

I still don’t understand why you aren’t.

[Person Man]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

It would be between Trump 2016 and Trump territory.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1451569193216888836

Damn

[Person Man]

Goddamnit...

[Person Man]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

He's going to run on banning books?

[Person Man]

I agree to disagree. As I said, in my opinion giving a possibility to parents to opting out their kids from reading "books containing sexually explicit material" or "submit alternative readings if desired" ≠ ban books.

In my opinion, it's a winning issue for Youngkin, and it's McAuliffe, who's shooting himself in the foot by elevating it.

Also, it's like 538th time, you guys say, Youngkin's X has backfired hehe haha, yet polls has been indicating even tighter race, than it already was. IMO, there is overall (not just polls) more evidence, that McAuliffe is backfiring than vice versa.

While I agree that overall Youngkin and GOP had been very effective when it comes to going after Dems on education, however, I Do think that by talking about banning Toni Morrison 1987 book Beloved they are allowing the Dems to take control the narrative

It's one thing for Youngkin and GOP to speak generally about parents having more control over what their kids read
 
It's another to suddenly start talking about banning this....



My mom is a big fan of the book and movie so I wanted to get her reaction to this. She was shocked that anybody would by trying to ban Beloved and I suspect a lot of people will feel the same way as news of this spreads.

I just think that Youngkin and GOP made a mistake by specifically singling out out this book and using it is as their main example of problematic books that kids should not read.

And maybe you think that "we just want to talk about this" isn't the same as banning something, it's making people uncomfortable.

This is basically the showcase issue for Republicans in the early 2020s beside abortion. That is the issue that society needs to be protected from this overreaction to the perceived abuse of power of conservative institutions by "cancelling" popular cultural trends and artifacts associated with them. That is what Republicans are now trying to do. Cancel culture. They see a popular symbol of American culture, accuse it of being this dangerous left-wing Trojan Horse and then talk about "getting parents involved".

If the GOP wins the 2021,2022, and 2024 elections, I expect by 2025 "free speech" being a part of te Democratic Platform.

[Person Man]

Wait, Trump actually can't be going to VA right? Is he really going to sabotage Youngkin's campaign?

Even the "talk" of Trump coming reinserts himself into this campaign.

https://twitter.com/TayFromCA/status/1453452631276404742

So whatever happens on Tuesday, it will be put on Trump.

[Person Man]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

told by who? lol

It would be great to know

[Person Man]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

There’s a world of difference between parents being involved and letting them call all the shots and believing that they know better than teachers.

Exactly.  Parents being personally involved in their children's education is great.  Parents giving input to school boards and professional educators is great.  Parents overruling those professionals and defining the curriculum is a terrible idea.

Well...

A poll released on Tuesday by Suffolk University asked if parents or school boards should "have more of an influence on a school's curriculum?" It found 50% of overall respondents and 57% of independents said parents should have more of an influence.

I don’t need another psycho bitch Karen telling me my kids can’t be read Harry Potter in school “since it’s anti-God”. That happened to me when growing up.

The irony is this is how South Park characterized Kyle’s mom.

[Person Man]

Youngkin should turn this disgusting episode into a nice final ad.

Trust me .. Virginia is a gop state anyway

It's such a GOP state that a Republican hasn't been able to win it in a statewide contest in over a decade!

Seriously dude, you are very bad at trolling.

It will be a gop state in the future based on Demographics.

What demographics?

[Person Man]

This entire thread is so bunk....

We have (109) pages even prior to the election, and I simply post asking for does Atlas Hive have benchmarks and then an hour later we have three pages of random squabbling for the most part and some old Dave Wasserman benchmarks from three weeks ago which appears to be only TV by candidate by county and not % vote by county....

Jesus Christo.... "Come on Man".... give us some real juice since here we are on the Friday evening before Tuesday's election, AND WE DEMAND ANSWERS from Virginia SME's and not petty bickering!!!!

I literally responded to your post with benchmarks.

Somebody else's and three weeks old, but no I'm totally cool with what you did there, but was hoping for maybe a higher level of analysis...

Better than pictures of dead babies, I guess.