CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Newsom will be reelected, and it won't be particularly close. I normally don't make strong predictions, but I'm confident on this one. The polls showing a close race are almost certainly junk.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update from the graphic above - all %'s stay the same as the morning though

Total ballots returned: 3,540,353
Dems: 1,917,444 (54.2%)
Reps: 844,235 (23.8%)
Ind/Other: 779,309 (22.0%)

First update in a while that Dems inch back up.

Total ballots returned = 3,796,496
Dems 2,068,520 (54.5%)
Reps 892,632 (23.5%)
Ind/Other 836,022 (22.0%)

Turnout = Dems (20%), Reps (17%), Ind/Other (13%)

BUT MUH TURNOUT FAVORS THE GOP

[Antonio the Sixth]

Survey USA has a new poll out showing Newsom surviving 51-43; their previous poll (4 weeks ago) showed him losing 40-51.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f054d152-ceac-48dc-a422-2f22c7a00521

19-point swing in a month. Sure Jan

[Antonio the Sixth]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

Congrats to Massachusetts but that won’t be us.

Yep, the Best Coast is just built different.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol... Newsom may end up beating his 2018 margin at this rate

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1433912010891087873

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

[Antonio the Sixth]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Why do you think that Democratic voters will coalesce behind one particular Democrat, considering that that none of the Democratic candidates have done any advertising or have any semblance of a campaign apparatus? I don't see any reason to think that such a thing would happen.

Moreover, considering what the polls tell us about the coalescence of the Republican vote, how would it be possible for a Democrat not only to capture more of the Democratic vote than Larry Elder will the Republican vote, but to do so by so much that it outweighs the fact that an enormous number of Democrats will not vote on the second question?

Paffrath clearly is doing something to get his name out there, or else he would have reached the notoriety to even be included in these polls. If you assume that these polls get at something real in the breakdown of Democratic votes, but also think that the share of total Democratic votes is underestimated, it's not crazy to see him come out ahead of Elder. Of course those are big assumptions, but I think there's reasoning behind both of them. I wouldn't put money down on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Why do you think that Democratic voters will coalesce behind one particular Democrat, considering that that none of the Democratic candidates have done any advertising or have any semblance of a campaign apparatus? I don't see any reason to think that such a thing would happen.

Moreover, considering what the polls tell us about the coalescence of the Republican vote, how would it be possible for a Democrat not only to capture more of the Democratic vote than Larry Elder will the Republican vote, but to do so by so much that it outweighs the fact that an enormous number of Democrats will not vote on the second question?

Paffrath clearly is doing something to get his name out there, or else he would have reached the notoriety to even be included in these polls. If you assume that these polls get at something real in the breakdown of Democratic votes, but also think that the share of total Democratic votes is underestimated, it's not crazy to see him come out ahead of Elder. Of course those are big assumptions, but I think there's reasoning behind both of them. I wouldn't put money down on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either.

It's just not true that he has to be doing something to get his name in polls. I've mentioned last year's Georgia special election before on this thread, but I'll do it again. Matt Lieberman and Ed Tarver (particularly the former) were routinely included in polls and routinely showed up with a significant percentage in polls, enough that people online were worried that Raphael Warnock would be shut out of the runoff altogether. Their poll numbers fell off as the candidates with actual money used that money to define the campaign, and then on Election Day they combined for 3.3% of the vote. Deborah Jackson, a no-name with no campaign who was also running as a Democrat, got 6.6%, twice as much as those two put together. Does that experience not tell us anything?

Surely we are all agreed that Larry Elder is the overwhelming choice of Republican voters at this point. (If not, I'm going to need to hear a reason that the PPIC survey is wrong on that front.) Now, in the 2018 election, Newsom received 62% of the vote. Let's say that the recall election turns out similarly, and turnout ends up being about 60% Democratic voters and 40% Republican voters. Let's also say, for the sake of argument, that only a third of Democratic voters heed the California Democratic Party's recommendation not to vote on the second question, and the other two-thirds go ahead and vote for a Democrat. Even with these very conservative assumptions, we're left with a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans among people who vote on the second question. (If more than 40% of voters on the first question are Republicans, or if more than a third of Democratic voters leave the second question blank like I expect, then the voters on the second question will be mostly Republican.) If you disagree with either of these assumptions and think that a clear majority of voters on the second question will be Democrats, I'd like to hear why.

Carrying on with this thought experiment, of those 50% of voters on the second question who are Republicans, Larry Elder will clearly win the vast majority. For a Democrat to do better than Elder, he would have to capture a larger share of the Democratic vote than Elder will the Republican vote; if Elder wins 70% of the Republican vote, which seems reasonable to me, the Democrat would have to get more than 70% of the Democratic vote. What you're suggesting is that one of the half-dozen Democrats on the ballot will coalesce the Democratic vote to that extent, even though he has no campaign and no prior name recognition and Larry Elder has both, and the entirety of the argument that he'd be able to do this that you've provided is that clearly there's some reason he's been in polls. On every possible level I find myself unconvinced.
I'm not as confident in this as I am in the obvious fact that Elder will win the second ballot, but my own prediction is that Elder will win every county in the state.

Well, I guess we'll see. I'm not confident on either outcome, but I think there's a more plausible case that Paffrath has consolidated the Democratic vote.

I don't really care either way, I obviously despise Paffrath (and in fact if Newsom were to be recalled I'd rather have an obvious clown like Elder who'd go down in flames in 2022 than a terrible Democrat who might entrench himself). But that's all a moot point anyway because Newsom will win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yuge indeed. Now the demographic of Californian MTG fans who were previously undecided on recalling Gavin Newsom is in the bag!

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, I think Newsom will survive by a single-digit margin.

I'll be mildly surprised if it's not double digits.

High 10s would be my guess, with an outside chance of low 10s and low 20s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

66% of Latino likely voters oppose the recall, per survey.  Compared to 52% of White likely voters and 58% overall.

https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-newsomrecall&fbclid=IwAR1niKUdefPScVF_l8p2pENMgIa4CeULYUNUjLGqs6IYDO87sIJjEcPU0q0

b-but I thought Latinos hated Newsom or something

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of Californians will be very angry during the midterms from this, I expect several swing seats in the house to trend blue, making an incoming R house rely on a slim few seats majority.

This will be all forgotten by November 2022. Voters have no memory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

OK I'll retract my prediction. Looks like Xahar was right and most Dems are following the party line and leaving the alternate ballot blank.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Except there's no history of polls underestimating Republicans in California. Quite the opposite actually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

GAVINSLIDE HERE WE GOOOOO

At this point even with the remaining ED votes, it's hard to see Yes even cracking 40%. Absolutely devastating for the clowns who pushed this, and further proof that California is and will remain a one-party state for the foreseeable future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Twitter is dragging Kasie Hunt for her thread on this-

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

Remarkable how none of this is even remotely based in the actual results of the election.

The ability of pundits to just. Make up narratives out of nothing is remarkable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No+25 with about a million more votes to go. There's a good chance that it ends up right around Newsom's margin of victory in 2018.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still 450k ballots left according to CA SoS. Hopefully most of those are counted by Tuesday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GuyMarzorati/status/1442568459154386945?s=20

CAGOP:

[Antonio the Sixth]

The margin right now is identical to the 2018 one.

200k ballots left to count. Here's hoping they don't bring the margin down further.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out.  

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

C O P E
O O
P     P
E         E

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2018-2021 swing map, at long last.



Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.