CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What a waste, Larry Elder, Northern Cali won't vote for him

[CityofSinners]

I wonder how much of the total vote is already in. 2018 turnout was 12.5 million and 2020 17 million.

I would assume the turnout is a bit below 2018. Maybe around 11 million.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder how much of the total vote is already in. 2018 turnout was 12.5 million and 2020 17 million.

I would assume the turnout is a bit below 2018. Maybe around 11 million.

What was the final partisan breakdown of the early vote and final vote in 2018 and 2020?

[President Johnson]

Potentially stupid question that may have been answered already elsewhere: Will the replacement votes be published if Newsom defeats the recall and is kept in office?

[Holmes]

Potentially stupid question that may have been answered already elsewhere: Will the replacement votes be published if Newsom defeats the recall and is kept in office?

Yes.

[wbrocks67]

Update from the graphic above - all %'s stay the same as the morning though

Total ballots returned: 3,540,353
Dems: 1,917,444 (54.2%)
Reps: 844,235 (23.8%)
Ind/Other: 779,309 (22.0%)

[wbrocks67]

I wonder how much of the total vote is already in. 2018 turnout was 12.5 million and 2020 17 million.

I would assume the turnout is a bit below 2018. Maybe around 11 million.

What was the final partisan breakdown of the early vote and final vote in 2018 and 2020?

Not sure about 2018, but

2020 final EV was 12.09M total ballots returned
Dems 50.9% (6.16M)
Ind/Other 24.6% (2.98M)
Reps 24.4% (2.96M)

which translated into a final result of Biden 63.5%, Trump 34.3% (17.5M total votes)

[wbrocks67]

This was also interesting - the guy who runs the Political Data site is also saying that as of now, the Indies who are voting are more Dem-leaning. This is from his Friday morning e-mail:

One thing that stands out in the early number is the 630,000 independent/other voters who have cast ballots – nearly as many as the 650,000 Republicans who have voted.  Of these, 592,000 are independents or confused American Independents, while the others are registered with minor parties.

To dive into this pool of Independent voters we can look at the breakdown of ballot returns using the “DemPlus” and “RepPlus” counts from PDI. These aren’t models, they are flags of prior behavior.  A DemPlus is anyone who is a Democrat, plus those who are Independents who pulled a ballot to vote in a Democratic Primary, have donated to a Democrat or were previously registered Democrat.  And, obviously, RepPlus is the same thing, but for Republicans.

Of the Independent voters who have cast ballots, over half meet one of these categories, with the current breakdown of 74% DemPlus and 26% RepPlus.  But there are also Independents who aren’t categorized but can be looked at based on their household party type – meaning who they live with.  As a rule, we expect independents who live with Democrats to be more progressive than those who live with Republicans.

Including those, we can breakdown the full independent vote as follows:

·         Independents who are DemPlus: 193,283

·         Independents who are RepPlus: 67,141

·         Uncategorized Independent, but live with a Dem: 128,205

·         Uncategorized Independent, but live with a Rep: 69,043

This leaves 134k of the Independents basically in an uncategorized bucket.  But, if someone asks you the partisan lean of these independents, the best answer is that they appear to be about three-quarters leaning Democratic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Newsom will be reelected, and it won't be particularly close. I normally don't make strong predictions, but I'm confident on this one. The polls showing a close race are almost certainly junk.

[Joe Republic]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

I live in a thinly populated, heavily pro-recall area that just happens to be in the Reno media market.  So yeah... we basically don't exist out here.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I believe Newsom will retain his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder (or another R) took office, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

[Sir Mohamed]

I believe Newsom will retain his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder (or another R) took office, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

Any GOPer wouldn't accomplish much, though I could imagine Faulconer actually working with the legislature. That said, he won't win the replacement vote.

If Newsom were recalled, his politicial career would for sure be over. The 2022 Dem nominee for governor would be Kounalakis, Breed or maybe Schiff.

[Matty]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

[Jackson Lee]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

That might be the result of one or several misunderstandings by people with little political knowledge:

# ballots can for example be mailed to registered voters who only recently became US citizens, but whom neighbors still perceive to be non-citizens

# ballots can be mailed to legal CA residents/citizens, who work a job in another state or have a vacation home in another state. Or out-of-state college students come to mind as well.

[DrScholl]

The post office would not deliver my ballot because I recently moved to a new apartment in the same complex. It was mailed before I could update my registration, but after I filed the change of address form for forwarding. The ballot was not forwarded, so there are very clear rules on how ballots are mailed and I seriously doubt that any and everyone is receiving a ballot. I think any chatter on Twitter is just people trying to set the stage to file lawsuits when the recall fails.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

On this note, my mother has received, once again, two ballots.

[wbrocks67]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

Yes because Twitter chatter is always the most reliable chatter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This Election been over since Elder said Minimum wage should be zero

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1432114984251707396

[wbrocks67]

I mean "Turnout will favor GOP" is relative of course. Yeah, it will favor it if GOP turnout is better than 2020 or 2018 which it looks like it will be... but in a D+24 registration state, that still doesn't mean much.

[SnowLabrador]

DeJoy is sabotaging the mail-in voting and rigging the recall in favor of the GOP. That's why I think Newsom loses.

[Duke of York]

DeJoy is sabotaging the mail-in voting and rigging the recall in favor of the GOP. That's why I think Newsom loses.

What proof do you have of this?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1432114984251707396

Turnout won't favor Rs just like Turnout won't favor Rs in 2022 and Later nos and Blks are motivated to vote due to T Voter Suppression

[Sir Mohamed]

DeJoy is sabotaging the mail-in voting and rigging the recall in favor of the GOP. That's why I think Newsom loses.

What proof do you have of this?

The same instinct that told him Mr. Trump would win reelection in a landslide and the GOP would hold a trfiecta again in January 2021.