CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

[DrScholl]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

[Gass3268]

I really hope there is an exit poll here and they are able to insta call race when the polls close. Would be glorious.

[wbrocks67]

I really hope there is an exit poll here and they are able to insta call race when the polls close. Would be glorious.

Yeah, I would love an exit poll here. Has anyone seen anything on them trying to get one?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

[CityofSinners]

my prediction is if NO wins by 15+ points dems will put a measure reforming recalls on the ballot in 2024. The larger the recall victory the larger the reform will be.

[Oryxslayer]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

All election reports are required to list over, under, blank, and write-in votes in final reporting. As far as election night goes, should be simple enough to do a Yes/No minus Sum(candidates) for a undervote estimate accurate to >90%.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

All election reports are required to list over, under, blank, and write-in votes in final reporting. As far as election night goes, should be simple enough to do a Yes/No minus Sum(candidates) for a undervote estimate accurate to >90%.

That might actually a a better way to do it since it will weed out those who turned in a blank ballot. Granted, there may still be people that left the recall part blank while choosing a candidate. 🤷🏻‍♂️ I think that, like you said, it should be at least 90% accurate. Aka good enough to draw conclusions from with a fair amount of confidence.

[wbrocks67]

Obama is cutting an ad for Newsom, it will be airing everywhere starting tomorrow.

Harris is holding a rally for him today, Biden seemingly Monday

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The reason Democrats did better over the weekend, despite the big Republican close with in-person voting is that in-person votes are only a small share of the total ballots cast.

The combined number of in-person ballots we received by these two counties was just 20,000, which is paltry compared to the over 200,000 total ballots reported by the two counties during the same period. Essentially, Republicans are cashing in on the in-person voting, roughly doubling their share of the electorate.  But that’s less than a 10% slice of the electorate.

Not surprised at all. I didn't even know they were doing in-person voting for the recall.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Starting to think Elder is literally throwing the election on purpose.

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1435695547386634253?s=20

[DrScholl]

We all have seen some weird stuff in ads, but that is definitely a new weird that most of us probably haven't seen. Nothing says vote yes on the recall like some bitter old man complaining about his high school years.

[Torrain]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

[Antonio the Sixth]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

OK I'll retract my prediction. Looks like Xahar was right and most Dems are following the party line and leaving the alternate ballot blank.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

Glorious day when John "Submissive and Breedable" Drake is tied with Caitlyn Jenner

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,433,721
Dems 3,414,683 (53.1%)
Reps 1,577,062 (24.5%)
Ind/Other 1,441,976 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (33%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

[sguberman]

What are the areas where Newsom may do better than Biden? Maybe the Vietnamese areas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obama is cutting an ad for Newsom, it will be airing everywhere starting tomorrow.

Harris is holding a rally for him today, Biden seemingly Monday

Oh no! The election is safe R now!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

There’s a chance of someone running on this, but I don’t think that they’d be very successful. Granted, it would be hilarious if say Chiang ran and made it to second place and locked the GOP out and then the GOP’s hatred of Newsom drives some of them to vote for Chiang (see CA-Sen 2018 where De Leon did very well in many of the most Republican areas simply because he wasn’t Feinstein).

[Horus]

Haven't been paying much attention to this but goodness what a bunch of deplorables. Gavin is cheesy and fake, he's like an American Trudeau. Elder has been a laughingstock even before The Boondocks aired and Paffrath is an absolute ghoul. I'd probably ignore the recall portion and vote Angelyne.

[Real Texan Politics]

A person in a gorilla mask threw an egg aiming for Larry.
https://twitter.com/abc7/status/1435720735549378560?s=21

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

[Holmes]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.

[neostassenite31]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.

AP called Virginia for Biden in 2020 right after polls closed I think. And VA went to Biden by exactly 10 points, which by the standards of states like CA isn't that big of a margin.  

[Oryxslayer]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.

If there is no exit poll, then the closest thing to a poll closing call would be one as soon as a majority of counties drop the votes they had from before election day. Cause inherent uncertainty in a ballot measure.