CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[BoiseBoy]

Final prediction (blue is remain, green is recall):

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alan Keyes mounted a challenge too, to Sen and Prez Obama, in 2004/ Latinos and Blks are gonna fall for this again, Clarence Thomas already.taught us this

Elder said that Slave owners can get Reparations, Queen Victoria got so many riches off of BLK enslavement plantations from Jamaica, where I have ancestors from, of course Slave trade came thru Haiti, LA and Jamaica AR

[Panhandle Progressive]

Final prediction (blue is remain, green is recall):

Solid prediction. I agree. Should be either exactly right or very, very close. Easy Newsom hold.

[Canis]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

[Suburbia]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

This.

He also gives Black Republicans a bad name, by saying stupid stuff like slavery wasn't bad and so on....

[Blair]

Early days but will deserve credit to whoever decided not to put a high profile Democrat on the ballot- allowed the race to become about Elder or whatever right winger rose to the top.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Early days but will deserve credit to whoever decided not to put a high profile Democrat on the ballot- allowed the race to become about Elder or whatever right winger rose to the top.

In 2003, there was one point at which Bustamante was leading the replacement ballot, and suddenly the recall stopped leading in the polls.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

That the CA GOP managed to screw this up should not be a shock to anyone that follows California politics. This just happened to be the biggest spotlight for them, but this is the exact same playbook they've done for the last decade.

Moderate Republican steps up who the party fawns over, conservative enters the race and gains traction, schizophrenic tug-of-war ensues between moderate/conservative candidates, moderate Republican slowly embraces conservative red meat, Democrat points & smiles in the background.

Only this time, the conservative is the preferred GOP choice now and the moderate Republican flamed out. If things weren't bad before for the CA GOP, this recall may actually make things worse for them in the foreseeable future.

[wbrocks67]

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)

[Greedo punched first]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

[Canis]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

The 2 I expect him to lose are San Francisco (Which I think Paffrath or some other D like maybe Joel Ventresca wins) and maybe San Diego to Faulconer.

[Greedo punched first]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

The 2 I expect him to lose are San Francisco (Which I think Paffrath or some other D like maybe Joel Ventresca wins) and maybe San Diego to Faulconer.

Might Armando Perez-Serrato win Imperial?

[Lief 🗽]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I'm not a Republican so can't speak personally to it, but my take is that the emergence of Elder as the leading R in the race has turned it from one that was a long shot for R's into one where they have no shot whatsoever.  So in that sense it's a blown opportunity, but it was a pretty unlikely opportunity for them even with a good candidate.

Newsom and the dems would have done to Faulkner, or Cox what they did to Elder if either of those two were the front runner. just try to label them as some right wind guy and frame the recall as democrat vs Republican.
Do you really think anything would’ve been different? Elder was just the Ginnypig

Just because they would use the same strategy doesn't mean it would be equally effective. Faulconer was actually a pretty reasonable, moderate mayor. Elder is a grifter lunatic.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

The 2 I expect him to lose are San Francisco (Which I think Paffrath or some other D like maybe Joel Ventresca wins) and maybe San Diego to Faulconer.

I will say that I have seen some support for Kevin Kiley around his assembly district (basically the tri-county area around Folsom Lake). But since that’s split over 3 counties and you also have Ted Gaines running (he represented similar areas in the state senate), I think that Kiley support will be diluted. Doug Ose also complicates things despite the fact that he’s not running anymore; his Congress district covered some of the same areas, as well as into the foothills a bit south of El Dorado (Amador and Calaveras could see some Ose support, but not enough to prevent Elder from winning them, I’d say).

So, all that to say, I don’t think that Elder will lose the replacement vote to any single candidate in Placer, El Dorado, or Sacramento Counties.

I’ll be interested in blank votes by county for sure.

[Gass3268]

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)

Saw on Twitter that in person early voting is starting and the voting patterns look more like pre-pandemic with Democrats coming out hard to vote early in person.

[Drew]

66% of Latino likely voters oppose the recall, per survey.  Compared to 52% of White likely voters and 58% overall.

https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-newsomrecall&fbclid=IwAR1niKUdefPScVF_l8p2pENMgIa4CeULYUNUjLGqs6IYDO87sIJjEcPU0q0

[Antonio the Sixth]

66% of Latino likely voters oppose the recall, per survey.  Compared to 52% of White likely voters and 58% overall.

https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-newsomrecall&fbclid=IwAR1niKUdefPScVF_l8p2pENMgIa4CeULYUNUjLGqs6IYDO87sIJjEcPU0q0

b-but I thought Latinos hated Newsom or something

[Joe Republic]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

A substantial portion of them, if not a majority, will be convinced the Dems stole it.  That's the only way Republicans lose, you see.

[PSOL]

A lot of Californians will be very angry during the midterms from this, I expect several swing seats in the house to trend blue, making an incoming R house rely on a slim few seats majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of Californians will be very angry during the midterms from this, I expect several swing seats in the house to trend blue, making an incoming R house rely on a slim few seats majority.

This will be all forgotten by November 2022. Voters have no memory.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)

Total ballots returned = 6,433,721
Dems 3,414,683 (53.1%)
Reps 1,577,062 (24.5%)
Ind/Other 1,441,976 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (33%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

[Telesquare]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlvedaCKing/status/1435267814277984262
MLK’s niece

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlvedaCKing/status/1435267814277984262
MLK’s niece

Alveda King is a staunch conservative Republican and was also a firm Trump supporter. She's always been at odds with her cousins (MLK's children), who are her complete political opposites.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Elder hasn't given any concrete evidence to solve the Homeless crisis,, that's why he's losing, no way D's lose Cali, wasted Recall, and impeachment on Trump because the say that there isn't any monies for anything else

FBI already cleared Trump to run again, he is gonna lose, badly, but he still can run, nullifying the Commission report if it says anything Negative on Trump

[wbrocks67]

New analysis of In-person vs Mail via Paul Mitchell (Political Data):

One topic on the show was if there would be a surprise in the later ballots to be cast.  As I mentioned in my Saturday email, our first look at the in-person voting will come today as we receive and process the votes cast in-person at the states thousands of vote centers that began over the weekend. One could suppose that if the Republican surge was to come, it would be seen in these first large-scale in-person opportunities.

From the data we received, we can drill into the early vote from this weekend in LA and Orange County to look for any differences between the in-person voting and those ballots received by mail. These are the kind of numbers we were expecting:

Los Angeles:

                Mailed Ballots: 63% Dem/15% Rep

                In Person: 40% Dem / 37% Rep

Orange County:

                Mailed Ballots: 41% Dem/35% Rep

                In Person: 19% Dem / 64% Rep

In LA, this shows that Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early vote by nearly 40-points, but the in-person shows that dropping to just 3-points.  In Orange County, Democrats lead in the mailed in ballots by 6-points, but in-person was dominated by Republicans, giving them a 45-point advantage among those voters.

What really is surprising then, given these percentages, is just how the turnout for this past weekend, including both mail-in and in-person votes statewide, really didn’t break for Republicans overall – it broke for Democrats.  And we saw a little bump up for Latinos.

The reason Democrats did better over the weekend, despite the big Republican close with in-person voting is that in-person votes are only a small share of the total ballots cast.

The combined number of in-person ballots we received by these two counties was just 20,000, which is paltry compared to the over 200,000 total ballots reported by the two counties during the same period. Essentially, Republicans are cashing in on the in-person voting, roughly doubling their share of the electorate.  But that’s less than a 10% slice of the electorate.

We always have to be cautious about reading too much into one report, but for the recall proponents, they were probably marking today on the calendar as a key point for the election to start turning around. And the more days that tick by, the harder it gets to change these turnout numbers.