Vermont Megathread

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/SKrowinski/status/1530256294686466048

Big news. Phil Scott signs the legislature's statewide child tax credit and disability benefits package. See thread.


In other news the race for Congress was totally changed today, Senator Ram Hinsdale endorses Balint. Lt. Gov Gray in trouble....

Let’s go Becca!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/TaylorSmallVT/status/1530255636306530306

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are you supporting Scott for reelection now, Dave? I remember you saying a week or two back that whether or not he signed H.510 was going to be a hinge point for your opinion of him.

[KaiserDave]

Are you supporting Scott for reelection now, Dave? I remember you saying a week or two back that whether or not he signed H.510 was going to be a hinge point for your opinion of him.

Probably. H.464 is also a plus. Also Democrats will not be nominating a serious candidate. So, I may not have a real choice.

[MT Treasurer]

To those with some perspective, do you envision the state shifting notably to the right in 2022 or the near future (e.g. in the next GOP popular vote win in a presidential race)? In theory, Vermont seems like a state where Democratic margins still seem extremely inflated even by New England standards, even when taking into account cultural and non-racial demographic factors (esp. irreligion & college education). I’m aware that sociocultural factors and adoption of or conformity with local/communal values in particular are underrated as a force in this entire 'trends' discourse (case in point: RGV, Miami-Dade, etc.), but this is not a state where the GOP should be confined to the low 30s in federal races.

[Not Me, Us]

To those with some perspective, do you envision the state shifting notably to the right in 2022 or the near future (e.g. in the next GOP popular vote win in a presidential race)? In theory, Vermont seems like a state where Democratic margins still seem extremely inflated even by New England standards, even when taking into account cultural and non-racial demographic factors (esp. irreligion & college education). I’m aware that sociocultural factors and adoption of or conformity with local/communal values in particular are underrated as a force in this entire 'trends' discourse (case in point: RGV, Miami-Dade, etc.), but this is not a state where the GOP should be confined to the low 30s in federal races.

I think the main problem for the GOP in Vermont is their stance on social issues. Vermonters are largely pro-choice, for example, so a party that advocates for abortion bans is not going to do especially well there. Just because Vermont is very rural and white doesn't mean it's conservative. Even when it was a safe R state it had some of the most liberal Republicans in the country, and still does with Phil Scott. That's not to say it won't trend right, but I don't think the RGV is a very good comparison.

[MT Treasurer]

I think the main problem for the GOP in Vermont is their stance on social issues. Vermonters are largely pro-choice, for example, so a party that advocates for abortion bans is not going to do especially well there. Just because Vermont is very rural and white doesn't mean it's conservative. Even when it was a safe R state it had some of the most liberal Republicans in the country, and still does with Phil Scott. That's not to say it won't trend right, but I don't think the RGV is a very good comparison.

I wasn’t comparing VT to the RGV, I was just pointing out that cultural factors and community influence can help explain 'outliers' such as the pace/extent of the RGV trend, the erratic swing in Miami-Dade (hence the Trump campaign extensively targeting that area through social media), or VT still being so uniformly Democratic.

I don’t think social issues can explain that entire margin, though. NH is just as pro-choice as VT and even many of its rural/small-town areas are noticeably less Democratic than those in VT (and are likely to trend rightward this year), although the most Democratic parts are of course located along the NH/VT border and in the Connecticut River Valley. I’d be particularly interested what it is about the latter that makes that region so Democratic (we’re also seeing this in Western MA).

At the very least, you’d expect many of these towns to vote closer to demographically similar places in the northern interior region of ME, but it’s not even remotely close.

[KaiserDave]

To those with some perspective, do you envision the state shifting notably to the right in 2022 or the near future (e.g. in the next GOP popular vote win in a presidential race)? In theory, Vermont seems like a state where Democratic margins still seem extremely inflated even by New England standards, even when taking into account cultural and non-racial demographic factors (esp. irreligion & college education). I’m aware that sociocultural factors and adoption of or conformity with local/communal values in particular are underrated as a force in this entire 'trends' discourse (case in point: RGV, Miami-Dade, etc.), but this is not a state where the GOP should be confined to the low 30s in federal races.

I do not envision a shift to the right. The comparison to New Hampshire on abortion rights is interesting, Vermont is only a few points more pro-choice than New Hampshire, although voters definitely prioritize the issue more (Vermont is about to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution). Vermont and New Hampshire also have similar religiosity and education levels (low and high respectively). But New Hampshire and Vermont have always had markedly different political culture, I couldn't tell you why, I don't know enough. New Hampshire has in recent times always been more low-tax than Vermont, and always had a less generous safety net.

But the question is whether Vermont will see a move to the right going forward and see no reason to believe that's the case. Vermont trended Democratic in 2020, and it's not just the third party vote redistributing. Trump got more or less the same result in 2016, and 2020, and both were less than Romney. Bush of course, did far better than both of them. What would spur a swing to the right? The Vermont Republican Party is a disorganized mess run by incompetents. Abortion is high in the public consciousness, and the would-be Republican voters have thus far proved to be partisan Democratic voters (at least when it's not Phil Scott).

A Republican appeal to these voters would be have to be 100% socially liberal, and it would have to be compassionate on economics. Eventually you're just Phil Scott, and that's not exactly going to be happen with the national GOP.

Of course Vermont will swing right this year due to the national environment, but I don't anticipate anything particularly shocking.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

To those with some perspective, do you envision the state shifting notably to the right in 2022 or the near future (e.g. in the next GOP popular vote win in a presidential race)? In theory, Vermont seems like a state where Democratic margins still seem extremely inflated even by New England standards, even when taking into account cultural and non-racial demographic factors (esp. irreligion & college education). I’m aware that sociocultural factors and adoption of or conformity with local/communal values in particular are underrated as a force in this entire 'trends' discourse (case in point: RGV, Miami-Dade, etc.), but this is not a state where the GOP should be confined to the low 30s in federal races.

I do not envision a shift to the right. The comparison to New Hampshire on abortion rights is interesting, Vermont is only a few points more pro-choice than New Hampshire, although voters definitely prioritize the issue more (Vermont is about to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution). Vermont and New Hampshire also have similar religiosity and education levels (low and high respectively). But New Hampshire and Vermont have always had markedly different political culture, I couldn't tell you why, I don't know enough. New Hampshire has in recent times always been more low-tax than Vermont, and always had a less generous safety net.

NH had exurban flight from Boston in the 70s and 80s that made it more Republican than Maine or Vermont, while people moving to Vermont had the opposite political inclinations.

The more limited government wing of the Vermont Republican Party got destroyed in the late 50s and early 60s also, which maybe a factor.

[Figueira]

There were hippies moving to New Hampshire too, just not as many.

[KaiserDave]

This is a good post. It also highlights the state's housing crisis, which in my view is the biggest issue facing the state by far. It's absolutely dire.

[KaiserDave]

Beyond parody.

[Roll Roons]

Shot:
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535337563577253888

Chaser:
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535339536527532032

[KaiserDave]

Scott has always made and pledged to make same party appointments so I it would require a major reversal to change that here. But we'll see how things go.

[KaiserDave]

Bernie endorsed Becca, Gray campaign in critical condition

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bernie endorsed Becca, Gray campaign in critical condition

Becca Bros rise up

[goin bezerk]

How does Phil Scott do in the primary?

Also, will Susan Hatch Davis get more votes than Brenda Siegal?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/BeccaBalintVT/status/1552052810564378627?s=20&t=UZkuIYrD...

WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/BeccaBalintVT/status/1552052810564378627?s=20&t=UZkuIYrD...

WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

We stan

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/BeccaBalintVT/status/1552052810564378627?s=20&t=UZkuIYrD...

WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

Vermont continuing to be the most based state in the union.

[KaiserDave]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

Molly Gray and Becca Balint have more or less the same name recognition, which is a huge change from the last UNH poll in April. Becca has a 73% approval rating, 10% neutral, and 6% disapproval rating. Molly is at 42%, 31%, and 19%. Vermonters like Becca Balint and dislike Molly Gray. It seems like the primary is all but over. Why should we be surprised? The entire left coalesced behind Becca, then most of the center-left did. She got her biggest progressive rival to endorse her, she got most of labor, she got all of the big names, from conservative Democrat (and the Governor's best friend) Dick Mazza to Bernie Sanders. She even got an ex-Republican state senator to endorse her. If/when Gray loses, her people will probably blame the outside spending of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the LGBT Victory PAC for tipping the scales. This is a massive deflection.

Peter Welch is far ahead in his primary for U.S. Senate.

[Gracile]

Hopefully Based Becca will embarrass the contemptible Molly Gr*y so badly that she has no choice but to banish herself to the Vermont wilderness.

[NewYorkExpress]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

How plausible is it that Scott loses the primary?

[KaiserDave]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

How plausible is it that Scott loses the primary?

Not plausible. There is no organized campaign against him, just two names on the ballot that aren't him.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

If Nolan looses it will further cement that nationally,  Republican Party is firmly anti-gay people