Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Atlas Force]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

She doesn’t even live in the current 7th, she lives in Cobb County and she would most likely just run in the new 6th. It’s Scott who’s probably out of a job.

[Devils30]

This lawsuit isn’t worth it for Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

Yeah, that’s not a good argument, especially since honestly partisanship didn’t change all that much here in any seat.

[Zaybay]

This lawsuit isn’t worth it for Dems.

"Getting another Safe Dem seat and a more favorable map in GA isn't worth it for the Dems."

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

Partisanship should really play a secondary role to demographic data during these remaps, which is why courts don't look favorably on political games, like on how every map the GOP tries to dodge the order through renumbering.

The main thing though with the mapping process here is that the officially nonpartisan Federal Courts (its different in the more closely partisan State Courts) don't want to have to do this multiple times. That's why I keep banging the drum of Racial gerrymandering, and it's why the order includes provisions limiting the remap area and concerning other majority-minority seats. There is literally another case that should have gone to trial last month on many of the same districts as this one, just also with additional racial gerrymandering claims. The only reason why it didn't is cause the remapping process necessitates a hold.

The court doesn't want to sign off on a product that will expand that case and just lead to the same areas being challenged once more. If anything, they want the relief to de facto resolve that case and lead to its resolution. Now the case probably won't be dropped cause it's a multiracial coalition and there are a handful of challenged districts, under different arguments, beyond the scope of this order in areas that are beyond the orders reach. But it should be tailored down, not expanded.


That's arguably why the plaintiffs rebuttal will probably lead to master maps on all levels, but especially the congressional map where the racial gerrymandering is so blatant. The only way it gets used is if things are somehow stalled in a way that is not yet apparent.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/AuforGA/status/1731438633712812084

[skbl17]

GA Dems map

I think you linked the wrong tweet.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1731711218350436598

[Atlas Force]

Looks like Clyde is the Republican who gets the short stick in the Dem map.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Clyde is the Republican who gets the short stick in the Dem map.

FYI, this map is basically the exact same as the plaintiff's initial demonstrative map from the court hearings. The reason for choosing this route should be obvious, I hope.

[Nyvin]

Smart of the GA Dems to leave GA-7 unchanged.

[Gass3268]

GA Dems map

I think you linked the wrong tweet.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1731711218350436598

Lol, yes wrong tweet.

[Horus]

Clyde is just as conservative as MTG if not moreso, and smarter - like Bob Good. Better to shaft him and keep MTG around for the soundbytes.

[politicallefty]

Does the Democratic map include a new Democratic seat? It certainly doesn't look like it to me. That GA-09 may include some Gwinnett, but Forsyth and Hall produce the highest GOP vote margins in the state (alongside Cherokee). I do find it interesting that the Democratic map mostly avoids Cherokee County, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

Of course, then again, many Democratic response maps have left me scratching my head. I can remember PA a few years ago.

[Horus]

Does the Democratic map include a new Democratic seat? It certainly doesn't look like it to me. That GA-09 may include some Gwinnett, but Forsyth and Hall produce the highest GOP vote margins in the state (alongside Cherokee). I do find it interesting that the Democratic map mostly avoids Cherokee County, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

Of course, then again, many Democratic response maps have left me scratching my head. I can remember PA a few years ago.

Yes, that map gives us 5 Atlanta based districts instead of four.

4th - most of DeKalb/Rockdale/Newton - Johnson runs here
5th - Central Atlanta - Williams runs here
6th - West Fulton/Douglas/South Cobb - Scott runs here, or if he retires McBath likely comes back over as she lives in Marietta
7th - most of Gwinnett - McBath runs here if Scott doesn't retire, otherwise tons of options
13th - Clayton/Henry/Spalding - new seat, looks to be about 60-40 Biden. Tons of possibilities to run here

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732194086285684928?t=oFSB9rwh9xY7EYS7wydYfw&am...

No potential hearing before the holiday vacations and recesses is a mistake IMO.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732194086285684928?t=oFSB9rwh9xY7EYS7wydYfw&am...

No potential hearing before the holiday vacations and recesses is a mistake IMO.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732467882859086160?t=czTiDc9pGiCE6ZYREa1O_A&am...

District court is doing the right thing here and not letting time slip away. This schedule could get us the holiday master period.

[Nyvin]

If the court is being that aggressive with scheduling it's a good chance they don't like the GOP's maps.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does the Democratic map include a new Democratic seat? It certainly doesn't look like it to me. That GA-09 may include some Gwinnett, but Forsyth and Hall produce the highest GOP vote margins in the state (alongside Cherokee). I do find it interesting that the Democratic map mostly avoids Cherokee County, though I doubt it makes much of a difference.

Of course, then again, many Democratic response maps have left me scratching my head. I can remember PA a few years ago.

Yes, that map gives us 5 Atlanta based districts instead of four.

4th - most of DeKalb/Rockdale/Newton - Johnson runs here
5th - Central Atlanta - Williams runs here
6th - West Fulton/Douglas/South Cobb - Scott runs here, or if he retires McBath likely comes back over as she lives in Marietta
7th - most of Gwinnett - McBath runs here if Scott doesn't retire, otherwise tons of options
13th - Clayton/Henry/Spalding - new seat, looks to be about 60-40 Biden. Tons of possibilities to run here

Ye 13th prolly a seat that was competitive during the Obama years but is swinging hard left due to fast growing black population.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the 13th elects a Republican under those lines in the general election in 2024, then Wyoming is voting for Biden.

[politicallefty]

Yes, that map gives us 5 Atlanta based districts instead of four.

4th - most of DeKalb/Rockdale/Newton - Johnson runs here
5th - Central Atlanta - Williams runs here
6th - West Fulton/Douglas/South Cobb - Scott runs here, or if he retires McBath likely comes back over as she lives in Marietta
7th - most of Gwinnett - McBath runs here if Scott doesn't retire, otherwise tons of options
13th - Clayton/Henry/Spalding - new seat, looks to be about 60-40 Biden. Tons of possibilities to run here

Sorry, but for some reason my mind wasn't registering any new district on that map. I think I was used to last decade's map and my mind was looking for a new district on top of that.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/AnthonyMKreis/status/1734627337612788136