Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[afleitch]

But it's not 'dooming' to say that with each passing hour, Ukraine loses more and more territory even to an overstreched and not-all-that-enthusiastic opponent.

Russia is adhering to that old 18th century doctrine of uti possidetis -- the more territory Russia controls under foot the more they can claim than just besides Donbas.

It's not 'dooming' to present an honest assessment.

It is dooming to say, say 'OMG IM SO SCARED ATOMISE MOSCOW NOW OR EUROPE WILL FALL'.

[John Dule]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

Where?

Can't find that for some reason

"More than half of the regiment's members speak Russian and come from eastern Ukraine, including cities of Donetsk and Luhansk."

[nicholas.slaydon]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Even in that article, it mentions that one of the Azov battalion's most prominent members is Nathan Khazin, an ordained Jewish Rabbi.  How far do you have to stoop to claim that a Jewish rabbi is a leading figure of a Neo-Nazi group? It's absolutely disgusting!  Just because some members of the battalion are fascists does not mean that they all are, or that their whole group is. Even if the battalion was comprised of 100% Fascists and Nazis, it would even matter. Far-right lunatics have just as much right to defend themselves and their country as anyone else.

[Storr]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

[Storebought]

But it's not 'dooming' to say that with each passing hour, Ukraine loses more and more territory even to an overstreched and not-all-that-enthusiastic opponent.

Russia is adhering to that old 18th century doctrine of uti possidetis -- the more territory Russia controls under foot the more they can claim than just besides Donbas.

It's not 'dooming' to present an honest assessment.

It is dooming to say, say 'OMG IM SO SCARED ATOMISE MOSCOW NOW OR EUROPE WILL FALL'.

That's a point. Useless emoting is useless.

[Omega21]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

Where?

Can't find that for some reason

"More than half of the regiment's members speak Russian and come from eastern Ukraine, including cities of Donetsk and Luhansk."

Not sure how familiar you are with the area, but speaking Russian does not mean they are Russian in any way. There is a 99% chance that not a single member of that unit describes himself as Russian.

[Lord Halifax]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

majority russophone, not the same thing.

[John Dule]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

Where?

Can't find that for some reason

"More than half of the regiment's members speak Russian and come from eastern Ukraine, including cities of Donetsk and Luhansk."

Not sure how familiar you are with the area, but speaking Russian does not mean they are Russian in any way. There is a 99% chance that not a single member of that unit describes himself as Russian.

Sure, but the idea that Putin needs to attack Kiev to "denazify Ukraine" when the alleged "Nazi activity" is happening among Russian speakers in the eastern territory is completely stupid.

[2016]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Even in that article, it mentions that one of the Azov battalion's most prominent members is Nathan Khazin, an ordained Jewish Rabbi.  How far do you have to stoop to claim that a Jewish rabbi is a leading figure of a Neo-Nazi group? It's absolutely disgusting!  Just because some members of the battalion are fascists does not mean that they all are, or that their whole group is. Even if the battalion was comprised of 100% Fascists and Nazis, it would even matter. Far-right lunatics have just as much right to defend themselves and their country as anyone else.

The Azov Battalion is no different than Hezbollah and Hezbollah continues to get sanctioned for their Crimes against Israel. How convinient!

[Storr]

According to Russia the evil West incited Ukrainians to fight Russia (which definitely isn't invading their country, that's fake news or something):


https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498342343686213637?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

Man, it would be such a shame if someone turned it into another Highway of Death...

[Torie]

Mod Notice

All recent posts quoting and referring to Russian propaganda, even those rightfully slamming it, have been deleted. No infractions except for the original poster.

I instantly get suspicious of anything that does not have an active link, precluding one from inspecting its provenance. The Russian propaganda image had no such link.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

Man, it would be such a shame if someone dronestriked them...

It’s a shame the UA doesn’t have the tools to punish this stuff, an American fighter pilot or field artillerist would get very excited seeing that image.

[It’s so Joever]

CNN reporting a new advance towards Mykolaiv.

[Storr]

I just read that Belarusian military is expected to join the fight (on Russia's side) if "peace talks" go badly today. Now I consider that a threat.

Terrible.

To me it is high time for NATO to react properly and kick the russians out of Ukraine.

I wonder what the Russians are planning to offer at the "peace talks".

Aaaaand the Russians only escalated what their demands were from before the war started:

"Putin himself gave no hints of any impending peace deal. After a long call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian media reported Putin had not only repeated his long-standing security demands over Ukraine — that the country should disarm and stay neutral outside NATO — but also insisted upon the formal recognition of Crimea as Russian, an ultimatum he had not previously stated so bluntly to Western allies.

A more upbeat read-out from the Élysée reported some willingness from Putin’s side to commit to a ceasefire on civilian facilities. Problematically, however, Putin denies in the version of events given to Russian media that there are any attacks on civilians to stop, blaming such strikes on Ukrainian nationalists — a baseless assertion."

https://www.politico.eu/article/peace-talks-set-to-begin-as-russian-war-on-ukraine-heads-into-5th-day/

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I just read that Belarusian military is expected to join the fight (on Russia's side) if "peace talks" go badly today. Now I consider that a threat.

Terrible.

To me it is high time for NATO to react properly and kick the russians out of Ukraine.

I wonder what the Russians are planning to offer at the "peace talks".

Aaaaand the Russians only escalated what their demands were from before the war started:

"Putin himself gave no hints of any impending peace deal. After a long call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian media reported Putin had not only repeated his long-standing security demands over Ukraine — that the country should disarm and stay neutral outside NATO — but also insisted upon the formal recognition of Crimea as Russian, an ultimatum he had not previously stated so bluntly to Western allies.

A more upbeat read-out from the Élysée reported some willingness from Putin’s side to commit to a ceasefire on civilian facilities. Problematically, however, Putin denies in the version of events given to Russian media that there are any attacks on civilians to stop, blaming such strikes on Ukrainian nationalists — a baseless assertion."

https://www.politico.eu/article/peace-talks-set-to-begin-as-russian-war-on-ukraine-heads-into-5th-day/

I direct you to the Minsk Accords, where Russian proxies were starting attacks literally as the Ukrainian delegation was flying home.
Ceasefires with Russia are worthless

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1498329367730077708

[Storr]

There aren't any casualties if you put them on a secret train:https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1498340185368678405?s=20&t=APv6MuJ6...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In what we might as well call a 'nation under arms' situation, people from all political perspectives will end up signing up to fight in some capacity. Anyone who pretends to be surprised or shocked by this outs themselves as dishonest.

In any event, if this subject is going to come up, others may wish to discuss the presence on the front line of the Chechen warlord's gang of rapist brigands and similar groups of unsavoury auxiliaries.

[Torie]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

Man, it would be such a shame if someone turned it into another Highway of Death...

Wow, what an image!

Is substantial infantry accompanying that column? If not, and if the UA army has night goggles, at night blast away with anti-tank weapons on that column. And I assume if there is no air force action on that column, that at this point the skies are sadly not contested now. Is all that armor being on the road mean the ground is too soft for cross country travel? If so, anything to block the arterials would be worthy of attempting.

So says the aged paper pushing lawyer with zero military expertise. Thanks for your indulgence.

[brucejoel99]

Seems like light progress was made

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1498343519609573380

I think the best case scenario for these talks is pretty much status quo ante bellum with the LPR keeping some of its gains and the North Crimean Canal remaining unobstructed.

Overall, the best case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out long enough and hope that Putin's regime collapses and in the chaos, the Ukrainians are able to retake their entire country (including Crimea). The best case scenario for Russia is collapse of the Ukrainian government and taking complete military control of the country while remaining an international pariah and dealing with a bloody insurgency. Seems to me like the Russians' best case scenario really isn't that great...

... is predicated on the fact that their leverage right now is their current restraint. The losses that Russia have taken so far have given Zelenskyy some leverage, but if Russia starts threatening heavy bombardment of urban areas, Zelenskyy knows that thousands will die, likely including himself, although both of those are further still pretty comparable in terms of net impact, meaning that Russia maintaining a degree of restraint is really rather necessitated by the situation, because at the same time, if that happens, then that's where we &/or the rest of NATO sans the U.S. might get involved: although it's hard to say where it is exactly, there's some threshold after which NATO will weigh intervention as the best option, & I think we draw the line at civilians being bombed indiscriminately (which is why Zelenskyy was smart to arm & mobilize the people: it's hard for any Russian win to not look indiscriminate if the people are the ones who are in the streets attempting to fight Russian soldiers off, which is the overlooked consideration that ultimately unraveled Russia's initial plans, to be frank). Russia's gamble right now is trying to find the pressure point that's "just right" insofar as effectively forcing Zelenskyy or his corpse to cave without spurring NATO into legitimate action, & they're certainly testing where the line is, if it even exists.

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086

At the same time, the length of the convoy matters a lot less than its composition. More armor is useless without infantry support, & it's the mechanized infantry units that've been taking the heaviest losses. Motorized units, although weaker, require less fuel, & Russia needs more infantry if it has any hopes of taking control over cities. Deploying motorized brigades means that Russia is ready & willing to take heavy losses. Basically, imagine rolling into a war zone in a U-Haul.

[Storr]

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us:https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086?s=20&t=63nIGAgRu...

Man, it would be such a shame if someone turned it into another Highway of Death...

Probably the same column. 3 rows?? They are practically begging to be droned:

https://twitter.com/ckoettl/status/1498353408855715840?s=20

[Storr]

Video from reddit that shows a Belarusian column near Kobryn in the southwestern corner of Belarus, which is 24 miles from the border with Ukraine. Ominously, the vehicles are marked with red squares. Notably there are only a few armored vehicles, and those being lightly protected humvee-like vehicles.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t3f60h/alarming_video_from_the_western_part_of_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

I found a tweet of this video:
https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1498277263690842112?s=20&t=dmyx9pR_...

[BlueSwan]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM

PRISTINA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Hungary will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory in order to keep the country safe, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday during a visit to Kosovo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/

First crack in the European coalition. Ukraine and Putin will now be an important issue in the upcoming elections in Hungary.

It is high time that we kick those bastards out of the EU.

[Torie]

Seems like light progress was made

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1498343519609573380

I think the best case scenario for these talks is pretty much status quo ante bellum with the LPR keeping some of its gains and the North Crimean Canal remaining unobstructed.

Overall, the best case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out long enough and hope that Putin's regime collapses and in the chaos, the Ukrainians are able to retake their entire country (including Crimea). The best case scenario for Russia is collapse of the Ukrainian government and taking complete military control of the country while remaining an international pariah and dealing with a bloody insurgency. Seems to me like the Russians' best case scenario really isn't that great...

... is predicated on the fact that their leverage right now is their current restraint. The losses that Russia have taken so far have given Zelenskyy some leverage, but if Russia starts threatening heavy bombardment of urban areas, Zelenskyy knows that thousands will die, likely including himself, although both of those are further still pretty comparable in terms of net impact, meaning that Russia maintaining a degree of restraint is really rather necessitated by the situation, because at the same time, if that happens, then that's where we &/or the rest of NATO sans the U.S. might get involved: although it's hard to say where it is exactly, there's some threshold after which NATO will weigh intervention as the best option, & I think we draw the line at civilians being bombed indiscriminately (which is why Zelenskyy was smart to arm & mobilize the people: it's hard for any Russian win to not look indiscriminate if the people are the ones who are in the streets attempting to fight Russian soldiers off, which is the overlooked consideration that ultimately unraveled Russia's initial plans, to be frank). Russia's gamble right now is trying to find the pressure point that's "just right" insofar as effectively forcing Zelenskyy or his corpse to cave without spurring NATO into legitimate action, & they're certainly testing where the line is.

At this point they have to be doing this to mock at us: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1498350735695790086

At the same time, the length of the convoy matters a lot less than its composition. More armor is useless without infantry support, & it's the mechanized infantry units that've been taking the heaviest losses. Motorized units, although weaker, require less fuel, & Russia needs more infantry if it has any hopes of taking control over cities. Deploying motorized brigades means that Russia is ready & willing to take heavy losses. Basically, imagine rolling into a war zone in a U-Haul.

Yes, an unknown is whether NATO will do nothing if Putin decides to fire bomb Kyiv and kill tens of thousands. One would think and hope NATO is pondering that, and if it decides at that point it could not do nothing, then perhaps somehow giving UA more assets from the air to punish that column tonight might be more desirable than waiting.